What if Germany did not invade Poland in 1939

To answer the question of: What would have happened if Hitler did not ordered the invasion of Poland in September 1939, we have to first alter the events that lead up to the invasion of Poland. The first event was in 1936 when Hitler named von Ribbentrop foreign minister instead of Goering. Goering covered the post of Germany's foreign minister and Hitler was inclined to appoint him to that post. What changed his mind was Ribbentrop's success as foreign minister to Great Britain, when in 1935 he convinced the British to sign an Anglo-German naval treaty in which Germany agreed to limit its navy to 35% of the British navy. Hitler was convinced that this was the first step in his dream of an Anglo-German alliance and convinced himself Ribbentrop was "another Bismarck." (Hitler's words, not mine.) Ribbentrop's appointment to Foreign minister turned out to be a disaster for Hitler when it came time for Hitler to try and sign an alliance with Poland in 1939. Ribbentrop was arrogant and insulting to the Polish leaders (who lead a "fascist-military dictatorship). Goering on the other hand, had cultivated a friendship with the Polish leaders for several years. He had invaded them to go hunting on his estate in northern Germany and on several occasions he was invited to join the Polish leader on their hunting excursion in Poland. They trusted Goering. The second mistake Hitler made was the occupation of the rump state of "Czechia" (as the region of Bohemia and Moravia were referred to at the time) after the partition of Czechoslovakia in 1938. The Slovaks (with the encouragement of the Nazi government) wanted to separate from the Czechs and create an independent Slovakia. Hitler used this crisis as an excuse to invade the Czech portion of the Czecho-Slovakia. This panicked the Poles into signing a treaty with Britain in which Britain "had" to come to their aid if Germany (or any other power) violated Poland's boarder. But Hitler did not have to invade Bohemia and Moravia because the Czech president had already agreed to give the Slovaks their independence and was willing to join an independent Czech state with Germany in an economic custom union and agree not to sign any agreement with any foreign power, literally transforming a Czech state into Germany's sphere of influence with only one provision by Germany--not to occupy the new Czech state with German troops. If Hitler had not been bent on occupying Bohemia and Moravia and asked the British to join him in agreeing to the Czech proposal, he would have gotten everything he wanted, plus not panicking either the Poles nor the British in signing an alliance aimed at Germany. The possibility of Hitler convincing the Poles to sign an alliance with Germany (against the Soviet Union), which included the annexation of the "Free" city of Danzig, (which was 95% Germany and had voted into power it own Nazi government in 1938) and the construction of a railway and highway across the Polish corridor, was quite possible. Hitler would probably have signed agreements with the three Baltic states (Lithuania had rushed to sign an agreement with German in 1939 and returned the former German city of Memel to Germany), incorporating them into Germany's sphere of influence and the formation of an extended German-Soviet boarder that he wanted in a future invasion of the Soviet Union.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
the Czech president had already agreed to give the Slovaks their independence and was willing to join an independent Czech state with Germany in an economic custom union and agree not to sign any agreement with any foreign power, literally transforming a Czech state into Germany's sphere of influence

Had the Czech President also signed over control of the Czech government's gold reserves to Germany? Some say that is what Hitler wanted and need at the time, the Czech gold and financial reserves, to cover costs of breakneck rearmament.
 
In our time line, you are right. Hitler's objective was to control the Czech region and completely absorb it into the Reich. He craved the Czech gold and financial reserves, as well as absorbing their industrial base into the Reich's economy. He might have achieved these objectives in the long run (say in two or three years) if the Czechs had consented to the establishment of a German-Czech economic zone. When the Czech president made his offer, Hitler rejected if offhand. So we'll never know if this was possible. But if he was able to form a Zollverein the Czechs would have had to convert their industries to manufacturing his weapons' orders. I'm suggesting that if Hitler was not so impatient about reaching his objections, regarding expansion (he feared he would die young from cancer) he could have reached his goal of bringing Poland into his system of alliances in eastern Europe, with the objective of establishing a frontier with the Soviet Union. If he had been willing to accept some kind of "Czech-Switzerland" he could have convinced the British that Chamberlain had been right to pursue his policy of appeasement, and that he was willing to work within the guidelines of the Munich Treaty--that he wanted to work with the English as a partner in redrawing the map of eastern Europe. Of course, whenever one creates an alternative timeline, the further you move away from the point of divergence, the harder it is to project what would happen. But I think there is a more than 50% possibility that if Hitler acted according to my alternative history, he could have drawn most of eastern Europe (Poland, Baltic States, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania--with "Czechia" neutral) into an anti-Soviet coalition. Britain and France would not have opposed him since he was not demanding any additional territories.
 
Under the original armaments expansion, a pan European economic alliance was to be formed integrating the economies of eastern Europe, the Baltic & Balkan economies. Hjalmar Schacht was the brainchild behind this plan using REICHBANK to finance credit payments to get the economies stalled by the Great depression. But Schacht anticipated a 15 year programme to achieve this starting in the early 1930s, meaning mid 1940s was the point of conclusion.

When Hitler asked Schacht about the program, he admitted that it was not going as fast as expected and 'the Führer' may have to wait until 1950. Hitler was not happy. Apparently it is at this point that he opts for the FOUR YEAR PLAN, to fast track the whole process by force if necessary. However it should be noted that the Schacht was against Hitler's rearmament since he suspected it would lead to another European war.
 
To answer the question of: What would have happened if Hitler did not ordered the invasion of Poland in September 1939, we have to first alter the events that lead up to the invasion of Poland. The first event was in 1936 when Hitler named von Ribbentrop foreign minister instead of Goering. Goering covered the post of Germany's foreign minister and Hitler was inclined to appoint him to that post. What changed his mind was Ribbentrop's success as foreign minister to Great Britain, when in 1935 he convinced the British to sign an Anglo-German naval treaty in which Germany agreed to limit its navy to 35% of the British navy. Hitler was convinced that this was the first step in his dream of an Anglo-German alliance and convinced himself Ribbentrop was "another Bismarck." (Hitler's words, not mine.) Ribbentrop's appointment to Foreign minister turned out to be a disaster for Hitler when it came time for Hitler to try and sign an alliance with Poland in 1939. Ribbentrop was arrogant and insulting to the Polish leaders (who lead a "fascist-military dictatorship). Goering on the other hand, had cultivated a friendship with the Polish leaders for several years. He had invaded them to go hunting on his estate in northern Germany and on several occasions he was invited to join the Polish leader on their hunting excursion in Poland. They trusted Goering. The second mistake Hitler made was the occupation of the rump state of "Czechia" (as the region of Bohemia and Moravia were referred to at the time) after the partition of Czechoslovakia in 1938. The Slovaks (with the encouragement of the Nazi government) wanted to separate from the Czechs and create an independent Slovakia. Hitler used this crisis as an excuse to invade the Czech portion of the Czecho-Slovakia. This panicked the Poles into signing a treaty with Britain in which Britain "had" to come to their aid if Germany (or any other power) violated Poland's boarder. But Hitler did not have to invade Bohemia and Moravia because the Czech president had already agreed to give the Slovaks their independence and was willing to join an independent Czech state with Germany in an economic custom union and agree not to sign any agreement with any foreign power, literally transforming a Czech state into Germany's sphere of influence with only one provision by Germany--not to occupy the new Czech state with German troops. If Hitler had not been bent on occupying Bohemia and Moravia and asked the British to join him in agreeing to the Czech proposal, he would have gotten everything he wanted, plus not panicking either the Poles nor the British in signing an alliance aimed at Germany. The possibility of Hitler convincing the Poles to sign an alliance with Germany (against the Soviet Union), which included the annexation of the "Free" city of Danzig, (which was 95% Germany and had voted into power it own Nazi government in 1938) and the construction of a railway and highway across the Polish corridor, was quite possible. Hitler would probably have signed agreements with the three Baltic states (Lithuania had rushed to sign an agreement with German in 1939 and returned the former German city of Memel to Germany), incorporating them into Germany's sphere of influence and the formation of an extended German-Soviet boarder that he wanted in a future invasion of the Soviet Union.
To answer the question of: What would have happened if Hitler did not ordered the invasion of Poland in September 1939, we have to first alter the events that lead up to the invasion of Poland. The first event was in 1936 when Hitler named von Ribbentrop foreign minister instead of Goering. Goering covered the post of Germany's foreign minister and Hitler was inclined to appoint him to that post. What changed his mind was Ribbentrop's success as foreign minister to Great Britain, when in 1935 he convinced the British to sign an Anglo-German naval treaty in which Germany agreed to limit its navy to 35% of the British navy. Hitler was convinced that this was the first step in his dream of an Anglo-German alliance and convinced himself Ribbentrop was "another Bismarck." (Hitler's words, not mine.) Ribbentrop's appointment to Foreign minister turned out to be a disaster for Hitler when it came time for Hitler to try and sign an alliance with Poland in 1939. Ribbentrop was arrogant and insulting to the Polish leaders (who lead a "fascist-military dictatorship). Goering on the other hand, had cultivated a friendship with the Polish leaders for several years. He had invaded them to go hunting on his estate in northern Germany and on several occasions he was invited to join the Polish leader on their hunting excursion in Poland. They trusted Goering. The second mistake Hitler made was the occupation of the rump state of "Czechia" (as the region of Bohemia and Moravia were referred to at the time) after the partition of Czechoslovakia in 1938. The Slovaks (with the encouragement of the Nazi government) wanted to separate from the Czechs and create an independent Slovakia. Hitler used this crisis as an excuse to invade the Czech portion of the Czecho-Slovakia. This panicked the Poles into signing a treaty with Britain in which Britain "had" to come to their aid if Germany (or any other power) violated Poland's boarder. But Hitler did not have to invade Bohemia and Moravia because the Czech president had already agreed to give the Slovaks their independence and was willing to join an independent Czech state with Germany in an economic custom union and agree not to sign any agreement with any foreign power, literally transforming a Czech state into Germany's sphere of influence with only one provision by Germany--not to occupy the new Czech state with German troops. If Hitler had not been bent on occupying Bohemia and Moravia and asked the British to join him in agreeing to the Czech proposal, he would have gotten everything he wanted, plus not panicking either the Poles nor the British in signing an alliance aimed at Germany. The possibility of Hitler convincing the Poles to sign an alliance with Germany (against the Soviet Union), which included the annexation of the "Free" city of Danzig, (which was 95% Germany and had voted into power it own Nazi government in 1938) and the construction of a railway and highway across the Polish corridor, was quite possible. Hitler would probably have signed agreements with the three Baltic states (Lithuania had rushed to sign an agreement with German in 1939 and returned the former German city of Memel to Germany), incorporating them into Germany's sphere of influence and the formation of an extended German-Soviet boarder that he wanted in a future invasion of the Soviet Union.

A very interesting thread.

Goring as foreign minister would be hopefully taken away from the 4 year plan and the Luftwaffe. BIG Positive!

(Perfect way to get Goring out of the way, promote him! Wining and dining foreign diplomats and wealthy, hunting, art, BIG noting himself)

I would however want to keep von Ribbentrop as special envoy to GB. You need someone who can handle "real numbers and facts". The traditional British "bank manager" approach.

While AH hated Poland and saw it as an artificial state, it is 38% German in '38 and almost a de-facto German territory. Poland is no friend of Russia or of Ukraine. It would be happy to get parts of Ukraine "back".

The Jews while hated by Poles, and live in a parallel culture in Poland, are more likely to be tolerated. Safer than Nazi Germany and those with position or money, safer than the Soviet Union.

The Baltic states need a friend. They have seen Finland cop it, and the writing is on the wall. The minority Baltic Germans (middle to upper class) will be keen to form a union with Germany and many fought for the Nazis over the Soviets.

Basically you control the Baltic rim (like that of Viking days). Sweden neutrality is under pressure. It could supply arms to Nazi "allies", without "technically" breaking it?

Norway / Denmark can be "liberated" earlier from British interference, much earlier and maybe with less resistance? The Netherlands, neither fish nor fowl, in alliances, is heavily "squeezed" as a Germanic language speaking nation to join the legion of non-Latin "Euro".

Germany's image would change from being a conqueror to a "liberator" or "protector". The gold reserves rushes off shore stay and used for "New Deal" in these outer states (re-arming and infrastructure for Germany's war machine)

Germany will have a buffer of states, very keen for Germany to maintain none aggression against the Soviets. They will not be for any Barbarossa that is 110% certain, but one that is 2000%.


For the West (especially isolationist USA) sadly it will probably "turn a blind eye". The Nazis are seen as a buffer and lesser evil than the Godless anti-capitalist communists.

AH with a flank fairly secured can give it to French, and finish off WW1 with (in his view) with the correct ending.

Great Britain and the Empire is alone. Spain will be ready to jump on the side of the winner.
 
If Germany do not take over Czechoslovakia in March 1939 and gain access to its raw materials, industry and especially gold reserve, the German economy promptly collapses. They could not afford the re-armament they were doing. It was the same thing in August 1939 - Germany had to go to war, or face economical collapse. One should remember that Germany entered the war with the same level of debt as a percentage of GDP as the Americans LEFT it with.

If Germany does not invade the rump Czechoslovakia or Poland, they must either restrict re-armament by 30% or collapse economically. As Hitler had already sacked Schacht for even suggesting a limit to re-armament, the former is unlikely. Thus Germany collapses, unable to pay for imports (oil, bauxite, copper, nickel, chrome, led, iron) they need to feed their industry, while France and Britain continues to build up.
 
If Germany do not take over Czechoslovakia in March 1939 and gain access to its raw materials, industry and especially gold reserve, the German economy promptly collapses. They could not afford the re-armament they were doing. It was the same thing in August 1939 - Germany had to go to war, or face economical collapse. One should remember that Germany entered the war with the same level of debt as a percentage of GDP as the Americans LEFT it with.

If Germany does not invade the rump Czechoslovakia or Poland, they must either restrict re-armament by 30% or collapse economically. As Hitler had already sacked Schacht for even suggesting a limit to re-armament, the former is unlikely. Thus Germany collapses, unable to pay for imports (oil, bauxite, copper, nickel, chrome, led, iron) they need to feed their industry, while France and Britain continues to build up.

Remind me...

Germany didn't get Poland's Gold. It was evacuated via Romania and on to England.
 
Remind me...

Germany didn't get Poland's Gold. It was evacuated via Romania and on to England.

They took $146 000 000 in gold from Austria and Czechoslovakia and $4 000 000 from the Free State of Danzig.

At the end of 1936, the German gold reserve was down to $26 707 000.

Even though they went to a war economy, before they could plunder France, the Netherlands and Belgium, the Germans were forced to export arms they badly needed themselves in order to pay for imports. They sold Bf 109s to Yugoslavia and Switzerland, Do 17s to Yugoslavia, AA guns to Greece, captured Austrian and Polish equipment to Sweden, Italy and Finland and captured Czeshovlovak equipment to Yugoslavia, Romania and Bulgaria.

If the Germans do not gain the Czechoslovak gold reserve and cannot go to a war economy (and with it completely default on their foreign loans) in September 1939, their economy will collapse.
 

Deleted member 1487

They took $146 000 000 in gold from Austria and Czechoslovakia and $4 000 000 from the Free State of Danzig.

At the end of 1936, the German gold reserve was down to $26 707 000.

Even though they went to a war economy, before they could plunder France, the Netherlands and Belgium, the Germans were forced to export arms they badly needed themselves in order to pay for imports. They sold Bf 109s to Yugoslavia and Switzerland, Do 17s to Yugoslavia, AA guns to Greece, captured Austrian and Polish equipment to Sweden, Italy and Finland and captured Czeshovlovak equipment to Yugoslavia, Romania and Bulgaria.

If the Germans do not gain the Czechoslovak gold reserve and cannot go to a war economy (and with it completely default on their foreign loans) in September 1939, their economy will collapse.
How much was from Austria, how much Czechoslovakia? I know the Brits send back $9 million in Czech gold when the Germans requested it pre-war.
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/h...lion-in-gold-that-belonged-to-another-country
 
To answer the question of: What would have happened if Hitler did not ordered the invasion of Poland in September 1939, we have to first alter the events that lead up to the invasion of Poland. The first event was in 1936 when Hitler named von Ribbentrop foreign minister instead of Goering. Goering covered the post of Germany's foreign minister and Hitler was inclined to appoint him to that post. What changed his mind was Ribbentrop's success as foreign minister to Great Britain, when in 1935 he convinced the British to sign an Anglo-German naval treaty in which Germany agreed to limit its navy to 35% of the British navy. Hitler was convinced that this was the first step in his dream of an Anglo-German alliance and convinced himself Ribbentrop was "another Bismarck." (Hitler's words, not mine.) Ribbentrop's appointment to Foreign minister turned out to be a disaster for Hitler when it came time for Hitler to try and sign an alliance with Poland in 1939. Ribbentrop was arrogant and insulting to the Polish leaders (who lead a "fascist-military dictatorship). Goering on the other hand, had cultivated a friendship with the Polish leaders for several years. He had invaded them to go hunting on his estate in northern Germany and on several occasions he was invited to join the Polish leader on their hunting excursion in Poland. They trusted Goering. The second mistake Hitler made was the occupation of the rump state of "Czechia" (as the region of Bohemia and Moravia were referred to at the time) after the partition of Czechoslovakia in 1938. The Slovaks (with the encouragement of the Nazi government) wanted to separate from the Czechs and create an independent Slovakia. Hitler used this crisis as an excuse to invade the Czech portion of the Czecho-Slovakia. This panicked the Poles into signing a treaty with Britain in which Britain "had" to come to their aid if Germany (or any other power) violated Poland's boarder. But Hitler did not have to invade Bohemia and Moravia because the Czech president had already agreed to give the Slovaks their independence and was willing to join an independent Czech state with Germany in an economic custom union and agree not to sign any agreement with any foreign power, literally transforming a Czech state into Germany's sphere of influence with only one provision by Germany--not to occupy the new Czech state with German troops. If Hitler had not been bent on occupying Bohemia and Moravia and asked the British to join him in agreeing to the Czech proposal, he would have gotten everything he wanted, plus not panicking either the Poles nor the British in signing an alliance aimed at Germany. The possibility of Hitler convincing the Poles to sign an alliance with Germany (against the Soviet Union), which included the annexation of the "Free" city of Danzig, (which was 95% Germany and had voted into power it own Nazi government in 1938) and the construction of a railway and highway across the Polish corridor, was quite possible. Hitler would probably have signed agreements with the three Baltic states (Lithuania had rushed to sign an agreement with German in 1939 and returned the former German city of Memel to Germany), incorporating them into Germany's sphere of influence and the formation of an extended German-Soviet boarder that he wanted in a future invasion of the Soviet Union.

Very interesting, but assuming he forgoes /delays invading Poland, where does he go from there? He can't just stand-pat and he may not have been ready to tangle with France in late 39. Please, if he does invade Belgium, etc to get at France, he'd wind up at war with England anyway.

The biggest impact would seem to be delaying things with Russia. If Hitler skips Poland and goes straight to France, then in 1940 he's conquered France, but is still dealing with England. He might expend more effort on the Battle of Britain (to little gain) or more Sea Lion-esque plans. If he then decides to go toward Russia, he pretty much needs to take Poland first and alone, giving Russia more warning and time and costing more German casualties before they get to the Russians.
 
How much was from Austria, how much Czechoslovakia? I know the Brits send back $9 million in Czech gold when the Germans requested it pre-war.
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/h...lion-in-gold-that-belonged-to-another-country

Most of it came from Czechoslovakia. In September 1938, the Czechoslovak gold reserve helf 94 tonnes, or just above $116 050 000. A small part of it ended up in Slovakia (the Germans took over the Slovak, Bulgarian, Romanian and Hungarian gold reserves in 1941, which were together about $200 000 000), but almost all fell in German hands.

14,5 tonnes, or $17 900 000 was turned over in October 1938 as part of the Münich agreement. A further 23 tonnes, or $28 400 000 were taken in March 1939 (among them the gold tranferred from Britain) and a further 45 tonnes, or $55 600 000 the Germans managed to get during the war.
 
They took $146 000 000 in gold from Austria and Czechoslovakia and $4 000 000 from the Free State of Danzig.

At the end of 1936, the German gold reserve was down to $26 707 000.

Even though they went to a war economy, before they could plunder France, the Netherlands and Belgium, the Germans were forced to export arms they badly needed themselves in order to pay for imports. They sold Bf 109s to Yugoslavia and Switzerland, Do 17s to Yugoslavia, AA guns to Greece, captured Austrian and Polish equipment to Sweden, Italy and Finland and captured Czeshovlovak equipment to Yugoslavia, Romania and Bulgaria.

If the Germans do not gain the Czechoslovak gold reserve and cannot go to a war economy (and with it completely default on their foreign loans) in September 1939, their economy will collapse.

I'm not debating any of the above.

For the Nazis invading Poland to grab the Gold was a failure. Same for Denmark and Norway, etc

In the role of "protector" these nations will not have a free ride. The Baltic rim nations would be forced into "donotions" for common defence, etc in Gold or foreign currency (incomings) and contracts at cost (or below) only in DM (outgoings).

As part of these Baltic / Germanic block, is blocking exports that are not positive to the Nazis. A revisit to the early days of the German union driven by Prussia.

A variation of "economic" warfare used by GB.
 
I'm not debating any of the above.

For the Nazis invading Poland to grab the Gold was a failure. Same for Denmark and Norway, etc

In the role of "protector" these nations will not have a free ride. The Baltic rim nations would be forced into "donotions" for common defence, etc in Gold or foreign currency (incomings) and contracts at cost (or below) only in DM (outgoings).

As part of these Baltic / Germanic block, is blocking exports that are not positive to the Nazis. A revisit to the early days of the German union driven by Prussia.

A variation of "economic" warfare used by GB.

None of this will matter, since France and Britain are re-arming and catching up, and Germany cannot match it without a war economy. By 1941, the French and British will field twice the airforce and armoured force (not even counting the infantry support tanks they would also have) the Germans would have.
 
Most of it came from Czechoslovakia. In September 1938, the Czechoslovak gold reserve helf 94 tonnes, or just above $116 050 000. A small part of it ended up in Slovakia (the Germans took over the Slovak, Bulgarian, Romanian and Hungarian gold reserves in 1941, which were together about $200 000 000), but almost all fell in German hands.

Exactly!!

Having all the Baltic rim nations in the fold means it will be very hard for these nations to sneak off Gold. Once war begins, it all gets incorporated into the "common" Nazis German pot.
 
Exactly!!

Having all the Baltic rim nations in the fold means it will be very hard for these nations to sneak off Gold. Once war begins, it all gets incorporated into the "common" Nazis German pot.

Poland has French guarantees. They are not going to be cooperating with the Germans.

Without going to war 1939, the Germans will not be able to default on their foreign loans and will not be able to go to a war economy. Without Poland gone and France defeated, the Balkan Little Entente will not collapse and Yugoslavia, Romania and Poland will remain in the French sphere of influence. None of the nations will surrender the administration of their gold reserves to Germany unless they are allied with Germany and in a war with an extremely dangerous opponent (read the Soviet Union) together with Germany.

What will happen in 1939 if Germany does not attack Poland is that Germany will fall behind France and Britain in re-armament, face increasingly bad odds and a potential two-front war against Poland in the east (which was also re-arming) and France and Britain in the west.

Without France defeated and not being in war with the Soviets, the Germans lack the political and military power to force any Balkans or Eastern Europe state to surrender their hard currency and gold reserves to them. They'll get the Czechoslovak one and no more, which means economical collapse even if they do cut down re-armament 30% - just in 1942 instead of late 1939.
 
Poland has French guarantees. They are not going to be cooperating with the Germans.

Don't be so sure.

The French were limp in their support of the alliance, and even limper with their Czech alliance. Poland feared the Reds as much as the Nazis.

Piłsudski was a multi-culture pro-Baltic states and anti-Russia/Soviet empire. He may have died in '35, but his shadow persisted

Międzymorze (Polish pronunciation: [mʲɛnd͡zɨˈmɔʐɛ]), known in English as Intermarium, was a plan, pursued after World War I by Polish leader Józef Piłsudski, for a federation,[1][2][3][4][5]of Central and Eastern European countries. Invited to join the proposed federation were the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland),[6] Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary, Romania, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia.[7][8]

The Polish name Międzymorze (from między = "between" or "among"; + morze = "sea"), meaning "Between-seas", was rendered into Latin as "Intermarium." [9]

The proposed federation was meant to emulate the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, that, from the end of the 16th century to the end of the 18th, had united the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.

Intermarium complemented Piłsudski's other geopolitical vision—Prometheism, whose goal was the dismemberment of the Russian Empireand that Empire's divestment of its territorial acquisitions.[10][11][12][13]

Intermarium was, however, perceived by some Lithuanians as a threat to their newly established independence, and by some Ukrainians as a threat to their aspirations for independence,[14][15][16] and was opposed by Russia and by most Western powers, except France, which backed it.[17][18][19]

Within two decades of the failure of Piłsudski's grand scheme, all the countries that he had viewed as candidates for membership in the Intermarium federation had fallen to the Soviet Union or Nazi Germany, except for Finland (which nonetheless suffered some territorial losses in the Winter War).
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Without France defeated and not being in war with the Soviets, the Germans lack the political and military power to force any Balkans or Eastern Europe state to surrender their hard currency and gold reserves to them. They'll get the Czechoslovak one and no more, which means economical collapse even if they do cut down re-armament 30% - just in 1942 instead of late 1939.
How bad would the German recession in 1942 be in such a scenario?
 
Without going to war 1939, the Germans will not be able to default on their foreign loans and will not be able to go to a war economy. Without Poland gone and France defeated, the Balkan Little Entente will not collapse and Yugoslavia, Romania and Poland will remain in the French sphere of influence. None of the nations will surrender the administration of their gold reserves to Germany unless they are allied with Germany and in a war with an extremely dangerous opponent (read the Soviet Union) together with Germany.

What will happen in 1939 if Germany does not attack Poland is that Germany will fall behind France and Britain in re-armament, face increasingly bad odds and a potential two-front war against Poland in the east (which was also re-arming) and France and Britain in the west.

Without France defeated and not being in war with the Soviets, the Germans lack the political and military power to force any Balkans or Eastern Europe state to surrender their hard currency and gold reserves to them. They'll get the Czechoslovak one and no more, which means economical collapse even if they do cut down re-armament 30% - just in 1942 instead of late 1939.

You fail to consider all changes. Move one goal post, moves many!

They are de-facto allied with Germany, and Poland now allied is not a threat.

Poland is under German influence, 38% are German and pro-Germany are pushed into positions controlling the country.

Germany now HAS the Polish Gold! (Some now, the rest later. Better than nearly nothing in OTL).

If Poland doesn't like it, let France protect them from the Reds. Germany or Russia, your choice. France only re-new the alliance at the last minute in OTL and didn't ratify it because war HAD already started.

Germany gets the whole of Poland, not half. And the Baltic two years earlier, without the cost of war (money, lives and machines).

The ledger shows lower costs, greater earnings (short and long term), and a expanded market, without hostile take overs :)

Instead of the Polish Officer Corps shot in the back of the head, they are more likely to fight for anti-communist forces. Similar for other Baltic states. The upper and middle classes wealth is not lost to the communist "redistribution".

The war on France and GB, can start at AH choosing. Earlier or later. And they don't have the advantage of others Gold to help
 
Everyone has made some very interesting points but you’re forgetting the original premise–Since Germany did not go to war in 1939, and Hitler cleverly drew in Chamberlain into his new eastern European policy, making the western nations believe he wants to settle the issue of redrawing the Versailles boundaries through peaceful means, Germany could have constructed its Zollverein and expand it to include all of eastern Europe and most of the Balkans. Thus Germany would have become the master of eastern Europe and have access to its raw materials, industry and especially gold reserve. The German economy would not have collapsed. Germany would have access to all the raw materials it needed, including oil from the Middle East. By not occupying the Czechs and convincing Poland to join his Axis, the British would have worked closer with Hitler. They did not have the stomach for war and those voices calling for war (led by Churchill) would have been isolated and ignored.
Without Britain backing up France, the French would not have the will to oppose Germany and the Little Entente would have collapsed after the Czechs and the Poles are brought within Germany’s sphere of influence. At the same time the French nation was undergoing internal divisions and if the war had not broke out in 1939, it is possible that France would have been so politically divided that they would have become impotent, and there is a 25% chance that France could have descended into a civil war. If this happened, Mussolini and Hitler would have supported the French military and nationalists as they did in the Spanish civil war. Hitler had already stated over and over that Germany was not interested in regaining the territories it lost to France and Belgium after the First World War. Hitler had greater game to hunt–Russia! He wrote in Mein Kampf that Germany should not make the same mistake of expansion in the west and south and concentration on acquiring living space in the east. Even if France did not collapse into civil war the French would have been isolated, surrounded by Spain, Italy and Germany with an unsympathetic Britain. Her only hope would have been to seek an alliance with Stalin. But this possibility would have only helped Hitler to increase his domination over all eastern Europe and the Balkans. Greece, which had a Fascist government that was sympathetic to Germany (it was Mussolini’s foolish attempt to invade Greece that drove the Greeks into the Allied camp in our time line) and Turkey would have moved closer to Germany since the British would not have objected. Even Yugoslavia would have joined Hitler’s “New Order” in eastern Europe, since in our time line they did join the Axis, and backed out due to the British supporting a rebellion that toppled the pro-Axis king.
A. J. P. Taylor wrote in his book: The origins of the Second World War, that Hitler did not want to re-fight the first world war. He wanted an alliance with Britain and Italy. With such an alliance he believed he could isolate France and neutralize her, freeing him to prepare for his war against the Soviet Union. He also believed that if war did break out with France, Germany could win quickly if France stood alone. If France does seek an alliance with Stalin, there is little France could do if war broke out between Germany and the Soviet Union. The British in this new time line would not oppose such a war and would be sympathetic to the Germans. Remember, Hitler becomes the ruler of most of Europe through peaceful means. And with Germans armies invading the Soviets, most of the French would probably be happy that the panzers were rolling eastward and not across France. They would have remained behind their Maginot line. This would probably happen between 1941 and 1943, that is if Stalin does not invade this German dominated Europe first.
 
Top