What if Germany attacked France in 1905?

abc123

Banned
As you know, von Schlieffen asked for a preventive war against France in 1905. because Russia was occupied in Far East and german naval policy was clearly set for confrontation with UK.
OTL Chancellor von Bulow and Kaiser refused to go into war.
But, what if they decided to go into the war?
 
They'd need a Casus Belli, no matter how flimsy, otherwise they'd get a good deal of problems both from foreign countries condemning their aggression, and from their own populace. Even better if they'd somehow get the French to declare war.

Not sure how feasible either is.

- Kelenas
 
Zombie Bismarck might have managed to do it (this is the kind of thing he excelled at, and unlike most of Wilhelm II-era foreign policy, he would probably have thought it a good idea). I don't believe anyone in the Kaiser's inner circle in 1905 had the skill to manufacture something like this, unfortunately/fortunately.
 
Hard to get a Franch DOW, methinks. While the French army is just as gung-ho as the Reichswehr, the government will not go that way precisely because the Russian ally is in turmoil. Isn't Germanophile Caillaux in power at the time? Can't remember.

1905... That means the Triple Entente will be able to form, and probably will be joined by Italy as in 1915.

Now that also means the French army is somewhat less prepared (I don't how much it would give Germany an advantage, though, as it too would be less ready).

Nevertheless, it would be an interesting alternate WW1!
 
Zombie Bismarck might have managed to do it (this is the kind of thing he excelled at, and unlike most of Wilhelm II-era foreign policy, he would probably have thought it a good idea). I don't believe anyone in the Kaiser's inner circle in 1905 had the skill to manufacture something like this, unfortunately/fortunately.

i would vote for fortunate for France.. and unfortunate for Germany.. as the unsettled buisness between the two would have been sorted out and may have averted much of WW 1. France had been way angry about the whole German Unification thing for too long.. well and getting their buts kicked in the process :) France wanted a rematch and one on one would have been kicked back to Paris in very very short order..

Russia was pre-occupied with Japan and internal conflict. at the time..
 
Hard to get a Franch DOW, methinks. While the French army is just as gung-ho as the Reichswehr, the government will not go that way precisely because the Russian ally is in turmoil.

I'm not sure about that.

The Kaiser could offer the Tzar support against the Bolsheviks and he could send advisors over to Russia to help improve infrastructure/the economy of Russia.

Now i'm not sure sucking up to the Tzar would do any good for Germany, but might it be possible to at least sow seeds of doubt in the Tzar's head about the Franco-Russian alliance?
 
I'm not sure about that.

The Kaiser could offer the Tzar support against the Bolsheviks and he could send advisors over to Russia to help improve infrastructure/the economy of Russia.

Now i'm not sure sucking up to the Tzar would do any good for Germany, but might it be possible to at least sow seeds of doubt in the Tzar's head about the Franco-Russian alliance?

The best thing the Germans could have done would have been to tell Niki to get a clue and go ahead with a real Duma and shut his mouth before Trotsky and Lenin and co. do it for him
 

abc123

Banned
I'm not sure about that.

The Kaiser could offer the Tzar support against the Bolsheviks and he could send advisors over to Russia to help improve infrastructure/the economy of Russia.

Now i'm not sure sucking up to the Tzar would do any good for Germany, but might it be possible to at least sow seeds of doubt in the Tzar's head about the Franco-Russian alliance?


Don't say that, They will attack you as they attacked me...
;)
 

abc123

Banned
i would vote for fortunate for France.. and unfortunate for Germany.. as the unsettled buisness between the two would have been sorted out and may have averted much of WW 1. France had been way angry about the whole German Unification thing for too long.. well and getting their buts kicked in the process :) France wanted a rematch and one on one would have been kicked back to Paris in very very short order..

Russia was pre-occupied with Japan and internal conflict. at the time..


Well, that's the main reason why IMO war of Germany against France in 1905 could be sucessful.
Russia would be in no condition to make war against Germany/Austro-Hungary, so Germany can put allmost all army against France.
;)
 
I'm not sure about that.

The Kaiser could offer the Tzar support against the Bolsheviks and he could send advisors over to Russia to help improve infrastructure/the economy of Russia.

Now i'm not sure sucking up to the Tzar would do any good for Germany, but might it be possible to at least sow seeds of doubt in the Tzar's head about the Franco-Russian alliance?

Support against the Bolsheviks? They played a minor role in the 1905 Revolution, Lenin was still in the west and Trotsky was either still a Menshevik or had adopted his neutral position within the Party.
 
The best thing the Germans could have done would have been to tell Niki to get a clue and go ahead with a real Duma and shut his mouth before Trotsky and Lenin and co. do it for him

Why would Germany in 1905 propose an elected Duma for Russia when it was trying to restrict political freedoms at home?
 
Why would Germany in 1905 propose an elected Duma for Russia when it was trying to restrict political freedoms at home?

uhm Although, the Reichstag had no formal right to install or dismiss the government. Legislation was shared between both the Reichstag and the Bundesrat, which was the council of the reigning princes of the German states.

Wilhelm was not getting rid of that institution with out tearing the empire apart.

Massive unrest.. Alexandr's assassination, recent loss in russo-Japanese war..
hindsight mostly :)

I mean if Niki would have been serious about the whole Duma thing, the monarchy just might have survived up to today.

Alas this is moving the topic off of Germany and France.

So back to the question at hand.. Can france take germany alone in 05? I don't think so
 
Could be very ugly

In 1905 the French were still operating under Plan XV, which was defensive in nature and relied on the Germans impaling themselves on the border forts, after which the French would counterattack.

And the Schleiffen Plan was not adopted until the end of the year, although it was in development. The current German Plan was to do what the French expected, and go straight at the Forts. In essence 1905 is a reverse of 1914, the Germans are doing exactly what the French expect, and will pay the price for it.

So i would expect hideous German casualties as they try to bash thru the French defenses. Whether they actually can is unknown. Schleiffen didn't think so, he thought the German artillery was not strong enough, and so decided to go around. Maybe after a year of pointless head to head bashing the germans do decide to go around thru Belgium, which may or may not draw Britain in.

Of course the germans have the same problems at Liege as OTL, and the Austrian heavy seige guns aren't built yet, so the Belgians may well be able to hold them off until the French can reinforce them. There certainly won't be any glorious and swift german victory. Given that in 1914 the Germans had 7/8ths of their army in the west and the French did exactly as they expected, i don't see the Germans doing better when the shoe is on the other foot.
 
In 1905 the French were still operating under Plan XV, which was defensive in nature and relied on the Germans impaling themselves on the border forts, after which the French would counterattack.

And the Schleiffen Plan was not adopted until the end of the year, although it was in development. The current German Plan was to do what the French expected, and go straight at the Forts. In essence 1905 is a reverse of 1914, the Germans are doing exactly what the French expect, and will pay the price for it.

So i would expect hideous German casualties as they try to bash thru the French defenses. Whether they actually can is unknown. Schleiffen didn't think so, he thought the German artillery was not strong enough, and so decided to go around. Maybe after a year of pointless head to head bashing the germans do decide to go around thru Belgium, which may or may not draw Britain in.

Of course the germans have the same problems at Liege as OTL, and the Austrian heavy seige guns aren't built yet, so the Belgians may well be able to hold them off until the French can reinforce them. There certainly won't be any glorious and swift german victory. Given that in 1914 the Germans had 7/8ths of their army in the west and the French did exactly as they expected, i don't see the Germans doing better when the shoe is on the other foot.

good point.. of course if it starts late 05 then maybe by that time the Germans decide the Belgian idea is the better option. Of course this war is going to be more like 1870 then 1914 as tanks and trucks and tanks arn't standard fair at this point. although gun tech has progressed.

I agree that the Germans would have a hard time running through the forts. hence why i would think that this would be a planned scheme where the germans lure the french into attacking first at what might apear to be an ill prepared germany, drawing them in to a trap, but in the end bring overwhelming force to bear and beat the french silly. (you'd never guess that i am a Germany wins against France no matter what kinda guy :) )

"".. Yet the relative strength of the armed forces of France and Germany was such that no French government, during the last quarter of the century, could have envisaged the notion of any aggression directed against Germany. ... From 1875 on, when the French General Staff elaborated its first plans for mobilization in the event of war, the ruling idea was entirely defensive. ... After 1893, the relative strength of forces once more turned in favor of Germany. Since the German population was growing much more rapidly than the French, the contingent mobilized every year was much more numerous, and the reserves at the disposition of the regular army were far larger than those the French high command could count on. ..." (La Gorce - "The French Army; a military-political history" pp 11-13)
The creation of a unified German Empire ended the "balance of power" that had been created with the Congress of Vienna after the end of the Napoleonic Wars.""
 
Of course this war is going to be more like 1870 then 1914 as tanks and trucks and tanks aren't standard fair at this point. although gun tech has progressed.

Well tanks and trucks weren't really standard, or in the case of tanks, invented, in 1914 either. The level of mobilization will be the same though. There are too many men mobilized in too small an area to have this campaign resemble 1870, and the machine gun, while not as prevalent, is in full service with both armies. This will be far more like 1914 than 1870. Nations at war.


I agree that the Germans would have a hard time running through the forts. hence why i would think that this would be a planned scheme where the germans lure the french into attacking first at what might apear to be an ill prepared germany, drawing them in to a trap, but in the end bring overwhelming force to bear and beat the french silly.

Highly unlikely. Without the Russians, the French know they are up against it, and that while they may win a defensive war, at this time attacking is contrary to all their planning and doctrine. Elan is not the french method for a few years yet. If war starts in 1905, it will be the Germans who start it, and they will be doing the attacking.
(you'd never guess that i am a Germany wins against France no matter what kinda guy :) )

Like in the OTL Great War? War between France and Germany in this period is very far from a foregone conclusion.
 
Highly unlikely. Without the Russians, the French know they are up against it, and that while they may win a defensive war, at this time attacking is contrary to all their planning and doctrine. Elan is not the french method for a few years yet. If war starts in 1905, it will be the Germans who start it, and they will be doing the attacking.

Well of that i agree.. as in 1905 was not optimum..
I just can't see the Germans starting it even though we know that Any Prussian's favorite past-time is always invading france. .

Wilhelm was a dolt.. but i am not sure he was that large of a dolt.. at least in 05 that is.... I mean if they cant get around the fortifications then no war is going to start. Germany likes to win wars .. not loose them

so does this then devolve into just not gonna happen.
 
Well that would bring in France as well, but what is the causus bellum?

There needs to be rather more than. " Get them while they look weak!"

Unlike most board members, the governments of the period were a little less than sanguine about generalized European carnage.
 
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