Alt scenerio:
Germany has a stronger Luftwaffe in the east, maybe 800 planes more. How: Perhaps a Battle of Britain lite strategy is adopted, JU88 is produced as a fast level bomber earlier without delay of dive bombing, ME110 production isn't trimmed down in favor of unreliable ME210, leff German losses with a different strategy Battle of Crete, some of the above or all of the above.
Result: At end of October Leningrad is under a tighter siege than OTL and Moscow is under artillery fire with the Germans occupying the Vnukoko airport just west of town.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vnukovo_International_Airport
Things looked grim OTL, here the slightly better German results and the fact, the Soviets two greatest cities are likely wrecked, Stalin, through Bulgaria offers a Brest like peace in exchange for peace.
Hitler takes this: Why, even in this TL, the casualties are worse than expected and the pace slower than expected, best to just take the propaganda victory and get out before the winter happens.
The deal: Hitler pulls back a bit from Leningrad and Moscow, in exchange for Sevastopol, Rostov, Maikop, Tupase and the Kuban peninsula evacuated without demolitions. German POWs returned immediately, Soviet POWs in a year, Soviet support of partisans to cease, transit rights for trade to Japan allowed.
The outlook:
Stalin will join back in soon. Maybe as soon as December 42 if Torch happens just the same, but certainly if the Allies have a second front in Europe. However Hitler gets out from his daily attrition at least for a while and an undamaged Maikop and Kuban can give him a lot of oil. Finland is basically done with the war.
What probably happens:
Malta falls to the Axis in 1942, Axis hold in Egypt in October/November 42. Allies do Torch as OTL but progress is slow, as Vichy resistance is a bit stiffer with the higher Axis prestige.
Regardless Axis just cant match the Allied build up and by June 43 this is obvious to everyone and the Axis evacuate from Africa the best they can as much as they can (Hitler less worried about Turkey going allied in this TL).
An Allied invasion of the west end of Sicily in August 43 is hemmed in by extra German divisions available in Sicily in an Anzio like bridgehead.
An Allied invasion of France in June 44 succeeds (but more of a grinder than OTL)
Early July 1944 the Soviets attack and get back in (the successful Allied lodgement in France along with the invasion of Saipan convince the Soviets Allied victory will be soon).
The Allied victory occurs with Allied occupation of Berlin in July 1945, the Polish parachute brigade is rushed to Warsaw along with a rising of the Polish home army, the Slovak army, defections of Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria as the Soviet home army struggles to get across the Dnieper (Hitler keeps way to much in the east for too long to try and hold on to the resources there).
Results:
Pax Americana
Japan surrenders before Soviets can get in. Soviets still occupy much of the same stuff though as OTL but after the conflict ends.
Soviets get the Baltic States, The Curzon Polish boundary, Bessarbia, but can't subvert the east European countries which have Allied and/or local forces present. (but actually do better economically as they receive American aid for a long time)
A harsher occupation of Germany and Japan