What if Germans preemptively occupied French North Africa in July 1942?

Germans occupy french north africa months early, the result is

  • torch is not attempted in 1942

    Votes: 10 25.0%
  • torch fails in 1942

    Votes: 6 15.0%
  • torch is launched early and succeeds

    Votes: 10 25.0%
  • torch is launched early and fails

    Votes: 1 2.5%
  • torch succeeds on otl's schedule

    Votes: 13 32.5%

  • Total voters
    40
Might work if the PoD was a Axis fear of a pro Allied action in NW Africa. The US ambassador to France had been intermittently discussing such a thing when Darlan was prime minister. That is the Axis are not trying to further seal the eastern Med, but rather attempting to forestal he Allies taking control of the eastern Med & by extension the Sicillian Strait. Lets Imagine the Anglo/Americans decide to proceed with the early GYMNAST plan & the Axis discover this. They force the French, under the terms of the Armistice to allow Axis soldiers to enter to assist the French in defending their colonies.

This scenario works even if the Allies are still postponing GYMNAST as IOTL. The Axis leaders just have to think they are coming. Since the German leaders frequently misinterpreted their intelligence this is not a ASB PoD.
 
You can also put it in stoves and lanterns - useful if electricity is unreliable or non-existent, and a very common source of light and heat well into the 20th century (and, in some cases, the 21st - my apartment in Japan was warmed by a kerosene heater!).

As are construction sites in the US today. You can buy these things off the floor in the building & tool supply stores. You can also use it to soak low grade solid fuels like brown coal, or wood and paper, to get more BTU out of your solid fuel stove, or boiler firebox.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Might work if the PoD was a Axis fear of a pro Allied action in NW Africa. The US ambassador to France had been intermittently discussing such a thing when Darlan was prime minister. That is the Axis are not trying to further seal the eastern Med, but rather attempting to forestal he Allies taking control of the eastern Med & by extension the Sicillian Strait. Lets Imagine the Anglo/Americans decide to proceed with the early GYMNAST plan & the Axis discover this. They force the French, under the terms of the Armistice to allow Axis soldiers to enter to assist the French in defending their colonies.

This scenario works even if the Allies are still postponing GYMNAST as IOTL. The Axis leaders just have to think they are coming. Since the German leaders frequently misinterpreted their intelligence this is not a ASB PoD.

I think you meant western med, not eastern.

Yes I am thinking your PoD is the plausible answer to the question of “why”? Another poster explained “with what forces”- the stuff waiting for Malta.

So the Allies find out that the Germans, probably in anticipation of GYMNAST have moved forces into Morocco and Algeria and Tunisia to “stiffen” the Vichy French defenses.

If that is the case the Americans would need to deal with the Germans from the get go before they get any ports. I think that would be dicey with the inexperienced forces of 1942, and some on the Allies side might think so, resulting in a decent chance of cancelling GYMNAST.

If the landing Allies would face German forces from the get go rather than just Vichy French, then the North Africa operation has little to recommend over ops in Europe itself.

What do you think the Anglo-Americans do?
 
There's always the Victorious German Arms scenario where France resists Op. TORCH full-bore, and once the Allies get a lodgement, the Spanish attack out of Spanish Morocco . . .


I think that Gygax may have played too many wargames, and worse yet ones that ignored logistics, politics, and the like.

What is the Victorious German Arms scenario? Gygax, as in Gary Gygax? Was this scenario something he had published?
 
As are construction sites in the US today. You can buy these things off the floor in the building & tool supply stores. You can also use it to soak low grade solid fuels like brown coal, or wood and paper, to get more BTU out of your solid fuel stove, or boiler firebox.

I believe that kerosene was seen as vital not just for heating but because it was the fuel of choice for cooking stoves.
 
There's always the Victorious German Arms scenario where France resists Op. TORCH full-bore, and once the Allies get a lodgement, the Spanish attack out of Spanish Morocco . . .


I think that Gygax may have played too many wargames, and worse yet ones that ignored logistics, politics, and the like.
What is the Victorious German Arms scenario? Gygax, as in Gary Gygax? Was this scenario something he had published?

Yes, E. Gary Gygax.

He wrote a book called Victorious German Arms where as a result of the Germans adopting a consistent strategy in late 1940 everything goes astonishingly well for them.

The book climaxes with a giant naval battle connected with Sealion II where the American, British, and Japanese (they were bought off to change sides) fleets face off with the German, Italian, and French ones.

Oh, and it has U.S. President George Lincoln Rockwell, who is tragically assassinated . . .
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Monthly Donor
It is important to remember the Allies hardly assaulted German held beaches until 1944. In North Africa, Sicily and southern Italy in 1942 and 1943, the landing operations were opposed lightly by French and Italian troops, not German troops, except for a couple spots.

Could the relatively inexperienced American troops, and commanders, of 1943 and 1942have succeeded in overcoming German manned defenses in those years?
 
Given that the Germans wouldn't have been able to take Algeria, let alone Morocco, let alone garrison every beach close to a port, the question is moot.
 
It is important to remember the Allies hardly assaulted German held beaches until 1944. In North Africa, Sicily and southern Italy in 1942 and 1943, the landing operations were opposed lightly by French and Italian troops, not German troops, except for a couple spots.

Could the relatively inexperienced American troops, and commanders, of 1943 and 1942have succeeded in overcoming German manned defenses in those years?

The Germans are going to reproduce Fortress Europe on the African coast, in a few weeks or months, with maybe 15 pct. of the soldiers involved in 1944? Defending beaches was not even German doctrine in 1942. Their anti invasion strategy for 1940-43 was to place static units in the ports, outposts on the beach, and defeat a invasion inland with mobile reserves. A strategy that failed consistently in Italy and Southern France.

German experience at defeating coastal landing was even worse than Allied experience. In 1942 their doctrine was entirely theoretical, drawn from some classroom exercises. At least the US had been conducting corps size rehearsals for the previous year.
 
Last edited:

Marc

Donor
This sounds like a scenario for the Germans losing the war faster, even by a few months - wonderful!

Objectively, you all do agree that the earlier the Germans lose, the better it is for humanity.
 
theoretically the KM & RM should be able to defend the coast, with the help of LW? that was not the case so what could have been done?

enhanced torpedoes, smaller coastal u-boats and mini-subs, some type of sabot shells or sub-caliber shells to extend range of their artillery?

without drawing from critical Eastern Front.
 
All that if in sufficient quantity. Which takes us back to production lag times, industrial policy, perception of needs.

The Germans never had a clear grasp of Allied Littoral warfare capabilities. Grossly overestimating for some characteristics. Badly under estimating in others. That hampered them.
 
theoretically the KM & RM should be able to defend the coast, with the help of LW? that was not the case so what could have been done?

enhanced torpedoes, smaller coastal u-boats and mini-subs, some type of sabot shells or sub-caliber shells to extend range of their artillery?

without drawing from critical Eastern Front.

All that if in sufficient quantity. Which takes us back to production lag times, industrial policy, perception of needs.

The Germans never had a clear grasp of Allied Littoral warfare capabilities. Grossly overestimating for some characteristics. Badly under estimating in others. That hampered them.

my POD would be that a smaller u-boat is ordered after rough passage of Type VII to Med in 1941 and need for transportable boat to Black Sea, but guess the view at the time they were not doing badly?

just the pushing off into future of Type XXI in favor of smaller boat to mirror their development of Type II prior to ocean going Type VII would have been huge change, although not ready by time Allies conduct Torch.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Monthly Donor
The Germans are going to reproduce Fortress Europe on the African coast, in a few weeks or months, with maybe 15 pct. of the soldiers involved in 1944?

I take it that's a rhetorical question, and you do not expect the defenses to be that great.

Defending beaches was not even German doctrine in 1942. Their anti invasion strategy for 1940-43 was to place static units in the ports, outposts on the beach, and defeat a invasion inland with mobile reserves. A strategy that failed consistently in Italy and Southern France.

So the Germans trying this with a smaller force of their own, plus potentially some Vichy troops, won't be very successful, is what you're saying.
 
I take it that's a rhetorical question, and you do not expect the defenses to be that great.



So the Germans trying this with a smaller force of their own, plus potentially some Vichy troops, won't be very successful, is what you're saying.

Odds are against it. There were some Allied commanders in 1942 who could screw the pooch on this, but the Axis are to thin on the ground, especially in therms of strategic mobility for field forces. At this point in the three we have identified three German armored/motorized divisions, a Axis airborne corps of 2-3 light infantry divisions. Maybe the Italians could contribute another mobile corps. Thats not a lot to rush across the entire Algerian/Morrocan littoral and cover all the major ports. There were undoubtedly some infantry or static units at hand, but there are limits to Italian cargo shipping. Would supply to the Axis army in Lybia be curtails and Rommels offensives be stopped to support this new African front? Would that provide enough shipping for another 3-4 corps across the Med?

A second question is how this leaves Axis or German occupation reserves elsewhere. Was there a unused corps or two of sufficient strength in the Balkans or Germany? Removing all three armored/motor divisions from France leaves only the newly designated SS Corps there, a paper or cadre organization in July 1942. Aside from the US corps in Amphibious Forces Atlantic Fleet the Brits had the corps prepared for the Gymnast and Gymnast II operations. From a logical German perspective it would be risky to remove their panzer reserve from France with a couple Allied corps more or less ready to descend on a undefended Atlantic or Channel coast.
 
we could see an Anglo-American landing in NW Europe in 1843.

I'd like to know what 19th century POD makes that possible. Maybe Napoleon wins Waterloo and its two or three follow-up battles? I take it the Confederation of the Rhine merges with Bavaria and Prussia into Federal Germany and remains allies with Napoleon II somehow?
 
I'd like to know what 19th century POD makes that possible. Maybe Napoleon wins Waterloo and its two or three follow-up battles? I take it the Confederation of the Rhine merges with Bavaria and Prussia into Federal Germany and remains allies with Napoleon II somehow?
I'm not buying it. I think the US will still be far too pissed off over the Brits burning Washington to ally themselves with them in 1843.
Ok, typo driven fun digression over.:)
 
I'm not buying it. I think the US will still be far too pissed off over the Brits burning Washington to ally themselves with them in 1843.
Ok, typo driven fun digression over.:)

No! Too much fun. This has enormous butterfly implications for Russian Ottoman tensions in the next decade
 
This is another scenario I'd enjoy examining on the game board. Germany grossly over extended in the west, vs worse prepared Allies. Alas, so much history, so little time.
 
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