Might work if the PoD was a Axis fear of a pro Allied action in NW Africa. The US ambassador to France had been intermittently discussing such a thing when Darlan was prime minister. That is the Axis are not trying to further seal the eastern Med, but rather attempting to forestal he Allies taking control of the eastern Med & by extension the Sicillian Strait. Lets Imagine the Anglo/Americans decide to proceed with the early GYMNAST plan & the Axis discover this. They force the French, under the terms of the Armistice to allow Axis soldiers to enter to assist the French in defending their colonies.
This scenario works even if the Allies are still postponing GYMNAST as IOTL. The Axis leaders just have to think they are coming. Since the German leaders frequently misinterpreted their intelligence this is not a ASB PoD.
This scenario works even if the Allies are still postponing GYMNAST as IOTL. The Axis leaders just have to think they are coming. Since the German leaders frequently misinterpreted their intelligence this is not a ASB PoD.