What-If: Germans conquer Paris, 1914

Hi peeps,

Now what do we think would happen if the Germans hadn't broken up their forces to pursue fleeing French columns East prior to the First Battle of the Marne? Would having a more unified German force with more weight on the Western flank allow the Germans to capture Paris? And would France be able to fight on, or would they have to capitulate like in the Franco-Prussian War? Or would the presence of the (small at this stage) BEP make a difference?

Please tell me as much as is possible. I know very little about WWI, although I know a lot about the political and cultural landscape of Europe prior to WWI.
 
Sorry, it isn't going to happen without major changes. The entire plan was logistically unsound for starters and 1st army had to march about 50% that 2nd army in the same amount of time. Thus its troops were rooted but never got to pause for rest and resupply, how could they they were in continuous engagement seeking the enemy's flank.

In my mind the best that could have happened is for 1st and 2nd Armys to swap assembly areas so 1st Army would not have to march 20 or more miles south to pass through the Liege defile and then another 20 miles to get on the right flank and head for Antwerp. Taking these 40 miles out at the start would mean 40 more miles left in the men at the end.

Secondly I'd appoint a proper Army Group commander to coordinate the movement of the 3 armies on the right flank. If that occured they could have a real chance of surrounding Lanzerac's 5th French army on the 20th of Sept and isolating the Belgian and British armies from the bulk of the French forces.

Thirdly I'd make an effort to send troops from the left to the right wing, despite that this would be highly difficult if not impossible to meet Schiff's ideas. At the very least they could fill the empty space between the right wing and the cost without much fighting and not let the right flank be outflanked itself as OTL.

But all of this still probably won't be enough to capture Paris.
 
Sorry, it isn't going to happen without major changes. The entire plan was logistically unsound for starters and 1st army had to march about 50% that 2nd army in the same amount of time. Thus its troops were rooted but never got to pause for rest and resupply, how could they they were in continuous engagement seeking the enemy's flank.

In my mind the best that could have happened is for 1st and 2nd Armys to swap assembly areas so 1st Army would not have to march 20 or more miles south to pass through the Liege defile and then another 20 miles to get on the right flank and head for Antwerp. Taking these 40 miles out at the start would mean 40 more miles left in the men at the end.

Secondly I'd appoint a proper Army Group commander to coordinate the movement of the 3 armies on the right flank. If that occured they could have a real chance of surrounding Lanzerac's 5th French army on the 20th of Sept and isolating the Belgian and British armies from the bulk of the French forces.

Thirdly I'd make an effort to send troops from the left to the right wing, despite that this would be highly difficult if not impossible to meet Schiff's ideas. At the very least they could fill the empty space between the right wing and the cost without much fighting and not let the right flank be outflanked itself as OTL.

But all of this still probably won't be enough to capture Paris.

To be honest, WWI tactics I'm not that familiar with. And whilst I'm decent with logistics, WWI logistics are just a nightmare for me. So, in essence, I'm thinking a plausible, straightforward way for Germany to capture Paris, Schlieffen Plan or not. And please don't take the easy route and say "its ASB".
 
It's not ASB, just highly unlikely. Germany took the straightforward, easy way and fell short, indeed they overstretched.

Corelli Barnett's "The Sword Bearers" goes through a blow by blow account of the problems of higher command during the Motlke campaign. He spells out the half-arsed attempts at Army Group command and the failings of it. Martin Van Creveld goes into detail about how Motlke improved it from a logistic standpoint and explores the mechanics of shifting an army to the right flank and supporting it when it gets there.

That said even if Paris falls I doubt the French will give up, they have powerful Allies in the field and other powers sitting on the fence with the potential to be Allies.
 
If Paris falls, the French won't surrender automatically. However, if there are no French victories soon after and/or all attempts to recapture the city fail, surrender will likely be inevitable. One almost certain outcome of a French surrender would be the end of the Third Republic. What would replace the Third Republic is hard to say be it a Fourth Republic, a revolutionary socialist/communist regime, a military dictatorship, or even some type of monarchical restoration. What is certain in such a scenario is that the French government would be unstable for a few years and that it may in fact go through more than one change in government system within a short period of time.
 
The trouble here is I don't see the Germans have the ability to capture Paris even if they do manage to batter their way to it. This is not 1870s and French armies would not be dissolved in disarray on the way from Sedan or Metz, but probably retaining some semblance of order generally.

What is more than likely is that the Germans besiege Paris, as in 1871, but they won't be able to capture it. Eventually, British and French reinforcements start arriving and break the siege eventually or Germans lose the ability to keep the besieging forces supplied adequately and are forced to withdraw. Capturing Paris without the French surrender it (and I don't see that happening) is close to impossible.
 
1914 the option of a negotiates peace still has a great chance of sucess. the war aims of all belligerents are still "moderate"

Assume that the POD is the battle of the Marne and the Germans capture Paris before zthe OE joins (Germans applies pressure to Ottomans to delay the DOW - to faciliate peace talks) Teh germans have also won Tannenberg and Masuren while A-H still holds Przemysl.

Serbia is still a near disaster and might put serbia in a (relative) strong position.

THE Easy - A-H will probably accept a moderate peace for Serbia with a TOKEN investigation in the murder of FF. Maybe a reduction (moderate) of Serbian Forces.

Not sure about Montenegro - might get annexed by Austria - in exchange of better treatment of Serbia.

Russia might be a status quo ante at this time (sucess against Austria defeat by Germans)

West:

Retreat from Belgium - annexation of Luxemburg

Status quo with France (but some money should go to Germany - or instead a few square miles of colonial property (around Togo/Kamerun)

Teh far east is difficult as Japan might keep the property aquired - maybe Germany "sells" the Pacific posessions (we can't hold them - why bother - we TRADE with China instead...)
 
The Germans can't spare the troops to take Paris unless/until they have decisively defeated the French field armies - in which case they won't need to, as they'll almost certainly be able to occupy it under the terms of an armistice.

They don't win because they capture Paris, though they may capture Paris because they've won.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I am one of the Germany could have done much better in WW1, but this event is a huge stretch. Not absolutely impossible, but hard. You not only need Conrad to send the 2nd Army east, you need the Russians to make at least one more HUGE blunder they did not make IOTL. Probably two or three, such as have another 2 armies encircled and capture. Germany has to not be pressured to send men east.

Then you need the French army (think 5th) to be encircled. And the BEF to be much slower coming to France. And then, you might have the strength. Maybe. The Germans were at the end of their supplies at the Marne IOTL. A light screening force could prevent Paris from falling in 1914. And there are garrison troops in Paris. Strange things happen (USA win ARW, USA wins in Mexico), but this type event would be the beginning of someone loading the dice for Germany.

But to what happens if. Germany win big. Italy does not enter war. France will not be fighting by mid 1915. Since Russia has to be doing poor in the east, Russia makes peace. Probably loses Congress of Poland and maybe some land in Ukraine. Tsar survives, maybe.
 
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