What if from 1956 the DRVN/VWP leadership were as grossly incompetent a state RVN leadership?



I just had a bit of a brain fart on this reading up on the Red River collectivisation on wiki. The death tolls are low for a soviet-style collectivisation. The rent reduction and land redistribution pleased way more people than it pissed off. This, and the million refugees strengthened the DRVN politically. Party cadre were a primary purge target, which "cleaned house" after 1956. And the apology process certainly helped legitimise the party. It provided an economic basis for the DRVN's capacity to support the NFL without requiring the volumes of fraternal aid that the RVN required from the free world. A Northern Development line would probably not result in a similar collectivisation process. Correspondingly a kholkoz-type collectivisation would gut the economy. Either of these could leave an incompetent basket case with a pissed off agricultural populace, relying on foreign military aid to control a dissident peasant population. Which, of course, would be useless to help the NFL/PLAF. Which leaves the PLAF fucked by 1967 if the US intervenes in the RVN.

Maybe we should consider, "What if the VWP / DRVN leadership were as grossly incompetent as the RVN leadership?," as a way to resolve this. Only problem is you need a POD after 1956 to ensure that the DRVN/RVN form at all.
 
Maybe we should consider, "What if the VWP / DRVN leadership were as grossly incompetent as the RVN leadership?," as a way to resolve this. Only problem is you need a POD after 1956 to ensure that the DRVN/RVN form at all.

There is a few technical issues with that. Officially speaking, DRVN (Democratic Republic of Vietnam, or "North Vietnam" within the context of Vietnam War) was formed on 2 September 1945, soon after the surrender of Imperial Japan, and right before the "landing" of the (Western) Allies forces. And when I say "right before", I mean the British landed on the southern region of Vietnam on 3 September. At that time, the DRVN government was not recognised by anyone, and especially not the French. The next 9/10 years are known as First Indochina War.

In short, from the official viewpoint of Vietnam, DRVN was formed on 1945, not 1956. Furthermore, the said land reform you mention took place during 53~54 period. And yes, there was also an apology - from Ho Chi Minh himself. So, you only needed a PoD during 50~53 to initiate a more clusterfuck of a land reform than OTL. Originally, it was the combination of passion and incompetence, this TL... yeah, I expect some worse fecal rolling downhill.
 

raharris1973

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A Northern Development line would probably not result in a similar collectivisation process. Correspondingly a kholkoz-type collectivisation would gut the economy.

So the full Stalin model basically?

That's enough to depress northern wartime morale?

I would have thought disastrous projects on the scale of the Great Leap Forward or Khmer Rouge year zero would have been necessary to turn the Ho Chi Minh trail from a reinforcement route to an escape route from the DRV to the south.
 
There is a few technical issues with that. Officially speaking, DRVN (Democratic Republic of Vietnam, or "North Vietnam" within the context of Vietnam War) was formed on 2 September 1945, soon after the surrender of Imperial Japan, and right before the "landing" of the (Western) Allies forces. And when I say "right before", I mean the British landed on the southern region of Vietnam on 3 September. At that time, the DRVN government was not recognised by anyone, and especially not the French. The next 9/10 years are known as First Indochina War.

In short, from the official viewpoint of Vietnam, DRVN was formed on 1945, not 1956. Furthermore, the said land reform you mention took place during 53~54 period. And yes, there was also an apology - from Ho Chi Minh himself. So, you only needed a PoD during 50~53 to initiate a more clusterfuck of a land reform than OTL. Originally, it was the combination of passion and incompetence, this TL... yeah, I expect some worse fecal rolling downhill.

I keyed it as 1956 to get Diem on the board. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reform_in_North_Vietnam#"Rectification_of_errors" it appears that we can blow the land reform campaign out in 1956 anyway.

So the full Stalin model basically?

That's enough to depress northern wartime morale?

I would have thought disastrous projects on the scale of the Great Leap Forward or Khmer Rouge year zero would have been necessary to turn the Ho Chi Minh trail from a reinforcement route to an escape route from the DRV to the south.

That the party had to apologise in 1957 for the scope of the existing land reform campaign shows that there is a reserve of peasant / semi-proletarian / rural proletarian power which is not to be meddled with without high cost. I'm not assuming a full Stalin situation: no machine tractor stations, no urban proletariat driving the process. But something involuntary and disasterous, where the 1957 purges aren't aimed at the party so much as the people.

The Ho Chi Minh trail isn't really relevant until 1965 when DRVN supplies become more important than ARVN supplies for the Southern revolution.

Are there any unexploited opportunities for gross incompetency we haven't tapped?

yours,
Sam R.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
I keyed it as 1956 to get Diem on the board. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reform_in_North_Vietnam#"Rectification_of_errors" it appears that we can blow the land reform campaign out in 1956 anyway.



That the party had to apologise in 1957 for the scope of the existing land reform campaign shows that there is a reserve of peasant / semi-proletarian / rural proletarian power which is not to be meddled with without high cost. I'm not assuming a full Stalin situation: no machine tractor stations, no urban proletariat driving the process. But something involuntary and disasterous, where the 1957 purges aren't aimed at the party so much as the people.

The Ho Chi Minh trail isn't really relevant until 1965 when DRVN supplies become more important than ARVN supplies for the Southern revolution.

Are there any unexploited opportunities for gross incompetency we haven't tapped?

yours,
Sam R.

Uh, just foreign policy missteps come to mind as another thing they can screw up. Picking a side in the Sino Soviet dispute so definitively that the are blacklist by one of china or Russia and are taken for granted by the other.

Oh, and internal party purges or rule or ruin strategies getting out of control could rip apart elite cohesion, as an alternative to the regime blowing popular support via land reform excesses.
 
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