What if: Franz Joseph I dead in 1853?

[abc123]

On 18 February 1853, the Emperor survived an assassination attempt by Hungarian nationalist János Libényi. The emperor was taking a stroll with one of his officers, Maximilian Karl Lamoral O'Donnell, on a city-bastion, when Libényi approached him. He immediately struck the emperor from behind with a knife straight at the neck. Franz Joseph almost always wore a uniform, which had a high collar that almost completely enclosed the neck. It so happened that the collar of his uniform was made out of very sturdy material. Even though the Emperor was wounded and bleeding, the collar saved his life. Count O'Donnell (descendant of the Irish noble dynasty O'Donnell of Tyrconnell) struck Libényi down with his sabre.


But, what if Libenyi was more sucessful? If he killed Franz Joseph?

Franz Joseph wasn't married in 1853, so the heir would become his younger brother Maximilian ( OTL Emperor of Mexico ).

What concequences?

 

[Vitruvius]

Austria could follow a very different course under an Emperor Maximilian. He was generally more liberal than his brother. Of course the events of '48 have already happened so there's probably not much that can be done in Germany at least not immediately. But Italy would be different. There's still bad blood amongst the liberals from '48 but a more generous policy in Lombardy-Venetia could still stave off Italian Unification, or at least shift it towards a Habsburg lead Confederation. Especially if Max could come to some kind of understanding with Napoleon III.

He could also reset relations with the Hungarians if he tried. There's a lot of possible solutions there. From an earlier Augslich to some kind of qualified autonomy. In '53 Hungary is still under military occupation so really Max has a lot of leeway for reform given that the Hungarians for the moment have been beaten down pretty effectively. His interest in the Navy could manifest in a more active policy in the Med. Perhaps more Austrian activity in the Levant and Egypt. Germany is tricky. Frankfurt and Erfurt have already set the precedent for a Prussian lead Kleindeutschland. I think alot depends on how he handles Schelswig Holstein. But the best I think he could accomplish is a status quo.

As for marriage I think his mother Sophie will still push for a union with a Wittelsbach. So this may preclude marriage to Charlotte of Belgium. Whether he falls for Helene or her younger sister Elisabeth (as Franz Josef did) is uncertain. Ironically he is probably better matched for Elisabeth given their OTL friendship. So it would be ironic if there was a another mismatched Imperial couple this time its the Emperor who is liberal and the Empress (Helene) who is the pious ceremonious conservative.

Another irony is that I can't help but think that Franz Josef's death would lead to less tragedy for the Habsburg dynasty. Franz Josef lived to see his brother executed, his son commit murder-suicide and his wife and then his nephew-heir assassinated.

 

[abc123]

Austria could follow a very different course under an Emperor Maximilian. He was generally more liberal than his brother. Of course the events of '48 have already happened so there's probably not much that can be done in Germany at least not immediately. But Italy would be different. There's still bad blood amongst the liberals from '48 but a more generous policy in Lombardy-Venetia could still stave off Italian Unification, or at least shift it towards a Habsburg lead Confederation. Especially if Max could come to some kind of understanding with Napoleon III.

He could also reset relations with the Hungarians if he tried. There's a lot of possible solutions there. From an earlier Augslich to some kind of qualified autonomy. In '53 Hungary is still under military occupation so really Max has a lot of leeway for reform given that the Hungarians for the moment have been beaten down pretty effectively. His interest in the Navy could manifest in a more active policy in the Med. Perhaps more Austrian activity in the Levant and Egypt. Germany is tricky. Frankfurt and Erfurt have already set the precedent for a Prussian lead Kleindeutschland. I think alot depends on how he handles Schelswig Holstein. But the best I think he could accomplish is a status quo.

As for marriage I think his mother Sophie will still push for a union with a Wittelsbach. So this may preclude marriage to Charlotte of Belgium. Whether he falls for Helene or her younger sister Elisabeth (as Franz Josef did) is uncertain. Ironically he is probably better matched for Elisabeth given their OTL friendship. So it would be ironic if there was a another mismatched Imperial couple this time its the Emperor who is liberal and the Empress (Helene) who is the pious ceremonious conservative.

Another irony is that I can't help but think that Franz Josef's death would lead to less tragedy for the Habsburg dynasty. Franz Josef lived to see his brother executed, his son commit murder-suicide and his wife and then his nephew-heir assassinated.

Very intresting ideas.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Indeed; I can see the Habsburg Empire getting a far better deal than in OTL, especially with regards to the Italians and the Hungarians.

 

[Simon]

He could also reset relations with the Hungarians if he tried. There's a lot of possible solutions there. From an earlier Augslich to some kind of qualified autonomy. In '53 Hungary is still under military occupation so really Max has a lot of leeway for reform given that the Hungarians for the moment have been beaten down pretty effectively.

Indeed, they're still 6 years away from the Austro-Sardinian War and 13 years away from the Austro-Prussian War so they still haven't suffered the massive losses of prestige from losing them. And whilst it might be slightly personally distasteful for Maximilian, politically it could be very useful to blame Franz Joseph for some of the more extreme/unpopular measures undertaken by the government and try and negotiate some sort of agreement with the Hungarians with a blank slate. Also throw in the emotional blackmail of a Hungarian nationalist killing his elder brother and portraying himself as coming to them 'more in sorrow than in anger' at how far things have gone and merely wanting to restore harmonious rule when he could of taken it much more personally and been hard line with them would I think put him in an exceedingly good negotiating position.

The question then becomes what sort of terms might he ask for from the Hungarian leaders, and what kind of of deal he might of actually been able to agree with them - I'm thinking a fair bit less than our timeline's Ausgleich. Personally I think the two main things he should of demanded would be to hive off Croatia and Slavonia from Hungary and transferring them to direct Austrian rule and to make sure that the Hungarian elites couldn't manipulate the voting requirements to disenfranchise the local minorities in the Hungarian parliament. Of course that's looking back knowing what we know now, what he'd ask for I'm not sure.

Germany is tricky. Frankfurt and Erfurt have already set the precedent for a Prussian lead Kleindeutschland. I think a lot depends on how he handles Schelswig-Holstein. But the best I think he could accomplish is a status quo.

Yeah, whilst they still wanted to maintain their influence in Germany with hindsight in the long term I think it would be best for them to concentrate solely on their Empire. If they can pass even a few key reforms it would put them in a much better position.

 

[joea64]

If you so decide, I'd really like to see what happens if Maximilian marries Sissi. Aside from the personal side, they'd make an interesting political/philosophical match, as Sissi was strikingly radical (certainly by the standards of the aristocracy) in her political ideas OTL. So she might be the one to push the already liberal Maximilian on to even more dramatic reforms TTL.

 

[Simon]

But Italy would be different. There's still bad blood amongst the liberals from '48 but a more generous policy in Lombardy-Venetia could still stave off Italian Unification, or at least shift it towards a Habsburg lead Confederation. Especially if Max could come to some kind of understanding with Napoleon III.

A Habsburg led confederation seems like the best possibility to me. Having a quick look at the different states that were in existence at the time (I always have trouble keeping track of the various Italian states of the time) it appears to be doable. Piedmont-Sardinia is going to be their main rival but they already directly control Lombardy-Venetia and they have relatives ruling Parma, Modena and Tuscany. San Marino is too small to matter, the Papal States it depends on how Church friendly Maximilian is but I'd expect them to stay out for a while and the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies is down at the other end happily minding their own business.

One idea might be something along the lines of the German Confederation and Zollverein, the confederation only covering the northern Italian states but the customs union possibly including the Papal States and Two Sicilies as well. If Maximilian were to legally separate Lombardy-Venetia from the Austrian Empire but keeping it in personal union perhaps he can arrange it to become ceremonial leader of the confederation as King of Italy, crowning himself with the Iron Crown of Lombardy. The trick would be to find some way of getting Piedmont-Sardinia to agree to something like this.

 

[abc123]

A Habsburg led confederation seems like the best possibility to me. Having a quick look at the different states that were in existence at the time (I always have trouble keeping track of the various Italian states of the time) it appears to be doable. Piedmont-Sardinia is going to be their main rival but they already directly control Lombardy-Venetia and they have relatives ruling Parma, Modena and Tuscany. San Marino is too small to matter, the Papal States it depends on how Church friendly Maximilian is but I'd expect them to stay out for a while and the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies is down at the other end happily minding their own business.

One idea might be something along the lines of the German Confederation and Zollverein, the confederation only covering the northern Italian states but the customs union possibly including the Papal States and Two Sicilies as well. If Maximilian were to legally separate Lombardy-Venetia from the Austrian Empire but keeping it in personal union perhaps he can arrange it to become ceremonial leader of the confederation as King of Italy, crowning himself with the Iron Crown of Lombardy. The trick would be to find some way of getting Piedmont-Sardinia to agree to something like this.

Excellent idea.
And Piedmont-Sardinia doesn't has to have any say in the whole thing.
They could be excluded from Italy like Austria was excluded from Germany after 1866.

 

[Vitruvius]

Excellent idea.
And Piedmont-Sardinia doesn't has to have any say in the whole thing.
They could be excluded from Italy like Austria was excluded from Germany after 1866.

Yes but bear in mind that the only way this would be feasible is if the Austrians got the French to go along with it. It was really the French that carried the day at Magenta and Solferino and secured northern Italy for Sardinia-Savoy. The French could still intervene even if they may have a harder time of it with a stronger Austria.

Sardinia got points with the French by participating in the Crimean War. And Nap III was already sympathetic to Italian nationalism. Max can't participate in the Crimean War without really upsetting Russia. So he would need some other kind of diplomatic overture to reset relations with France. If Nap III can be convinced of Austria's friendly intentions and that Austria represents the best bet for stability in Italy vis a vis radical revolutionary activity he would probably go along with their plans.

 

[abc123]

Yes but bear in mind that the only way this would be feasible is if the Austrians got the French to go along with it. It was really the French that carried the day at Magenta and Solferino and secured northern Italy for Sardinia-Savoy. The French could still intervene even if they may have a harder time of it with a stronger Austria.

Sardinia got points with the French by participating in the Crimean War. And Nap III was already sympathetic to Italian nationalism. Max can't participate in the Crimean War without really upsetting Russia. So he would need some other kind of diplomatic overture to reset relations with France. If Nap III can be convinced of Austria's friendly intentions and that Austria represents the best bet for stability in Italy vis a vis radical revolutionary activity he would probably go along with their plans.

True.
I know that.
Some kind of modus vivendi between Austria and France is nescesarry for this to work.
Some alliance against Prussia?

WI Max insures them that some of the italian branches of Habsburgs will be presidents of this Italian Confederation?
Maybe even leaving Venice and Lombardy in exchange for that?

 

[abc123]

True.
I know that.
Some kind of modus vivendi between Austria and France is nescesarry for this to work.
Some alliance against Prussia?

WI Max insures them that some of the italian branches of Habsburgs will be presidents of this Italian Confederation?
Maybe even leaving Venice and Lombardy in exchange for that?

But if we goeing in the wrong direction?
WI Max decides to be on the russian side in Crimean war?

 

[Vitruvius]

I think there are lots of plausible ways an Italian Confederation could be set up, many have already been mentioned. Austria just needs to lay the foundation for it with France first. The more it can isolate Sardinia the better. Max needs to demonstrate that Austria is no longer the arch-conservative state that Nap III thinks it is, maybe by making constitutional reforms in Lombardy-Venetia. Reforms in Hungary wouldn't hurt either as they were a cause celebre in France as well. Or maybe even some vague promises about Luxembourg. He needs to make sure Lombardy-Venetia is no longer viewed as an Austrian occupied state by the French.

Now Nap III can still say he's supporting Italian nationalism only now its a Confederation of some sort. At least enough to appease the liberals in France. And if they get the Pope on board (some ceremonial role maybe) then Napoleon has appeased his Catholic constituents. The key is once the French are content and Sardinia is isolated I think you could structure Italy any way you want.

Its a sea change in Austrian foreign policy. Not only does it reverse course and move Austria out of the Reactionary camp but because it acknowledges that Austria can't just dictate terms in Italy (or elsewhere) and must placate other powers, esp France. Important lessons that have great import for the situation in Germany.

 

[Simon]

I think there are lots of plausible ways an Italian Confederation could be set up, many have already been mentioned. Austria just needs to lay the foundation for it with France first. The more it can isolate Sardinia the better. Max needs to demonstrate that Austria is no longer the arch-conservative state that Nap III thinks it is, maybe by making constitutional reforms in Lombardy-Venetia. Reforms in Hungary wouldn't hurt either as they were a cause celebre in France as well. Or maybe even some vague promises about Luxembourg. He needs to make sure Lombardy-Venetia is no longer viewed as an Austrian occupied state by the French.

Well he's been generally classed as being a liberal (for the times) so making some reforms in Lombardy-Venetia shouldn't be a problem. Coming to a deal with Hungary is pretty much a given simply to get the country functioning again. One idea to get rid of the idea of Lombardy-Venetia as an Austrian occupied state might be when separating it from the Austrian Empire is to give it to a possible second son or if it was Maximilian's fault that he never had issue another branch of the family. Personally however I'd generally prefer to see Maximilian keep the throne himself.

One unexpected knock-on if Maximilian marries someone other than Charlotte or if they still get married and live to a ripe old age is that unlike in our timeline the baron de Goffinet wont have the opportunity to loot her personal fortune that he was meant to be managing to help finance Leopold II of Belgium's personal colonisation and mass looting of the Congo. So some extra good would come out of it.

Now Nap III can still say he's supporting Italian nationalism only now its a Confederation of some sort. At least enough to appease the liberals in France. And if they get the Pope on board (some ceremonial role maybe) then Napoleon has appeased his Catholic constituents. The key is once the French are content and Sardinia is isolated I think you could structure Italy any way you want.

The main problem with the Pope I'd expect would be that if they were to participate they would probably demand to be the head of the confederation and continue being so reactionary that the liberals in France wouldn't accept them and continue supporting Piedmont-Sardinia. If Austria introduced enough basic reforms and use their influence to nudge the other smaller states in the same general direction that should please the liberals, and by keeping the Papal States outside the confederation and ruling themselves for the time being the Catholics should be kept pacified. Of course once things have been formed for a few years and are solidly in place then maybe they can start to see about absorbing some of the Papal States, the Papal Legations seemed fairly happy with being annexed in our timeline.

 

[abc123]

What consequences if in Crimean War Maximilian III ( he would be the third, same as Napoleon III ) is ally of Russia?
So he attacks the French interests in Italy, conquering Piedmonte?
Or he attacks Ottoman Empire in the Balkans ( in Bosnia ).

 

[Vitruvius]

What consequences if in Crimean War Maximilian III ( he would be the third, same as Napoleon III ) is ally of Russia?
So he attacks the French interests in Italy, conquering Piedmonte?
Or he attacks Ottoman Empire in the Balkans ( in Bosnia ).

He'd be Maximilian I, the Austrian Empire was not considered to be a successor state to the HRE so it had its own numbering system. Indeed Francis was simultaneously Holy Roman Emperor Francis II and Emperor Francis I of Austria for a brief period. Its an interesting distinction in fact. Because the HRE was a Reich (ie an Empire) in the sense it was a state and by virtue of it being and Empire its ruler was an Emperor. Austria was a Kaisertum (the realm of an Emperor) thus it was sort of the reverse, a state that by virtue of its ruler being an Emperor was an Empire. This had a lot to do with the Austrian Empire really being an assemblage of Habsburg crownlands and hereditary possessions.

As for the Crimean War siding with Russia is a far cry from invading Italy. Max would be brazenly expanding the War from a Balkan War into a European War. And he would face France, Britain and Sardinia. In '53 the Austrians have no reason to launch a preemptive war in Italy and they have little to gain in the Balkans because siding with Russia concedes the lower Danube as a Russian sphere of influence.

Neutrality may be the better option. Max lets Russia roll through Wallachia into the Balkans and then sits by and watches France (with a Sardinian expeditionary force) slug it out in the Balkans. Perhaps he can move in later on and play Kingmaker, or at the very least peacemaker. Its important to note that the outbreak of war will be happening within the first 8 months of Max's rule so its an important test for him.

 

[Simon]

I think neutrality is probably the best policy for the Austrians, as other have stated they simply don't have anything to gain from expanding a Balkan war into Europe. If they did try and attack Piedmont-Sardinia I'd expect to see the French at least reinforcing them so that they can hold off the Austrians if not helping them counterattack into their territory, at which point any gains made through a possible confederation and customs union is lost.

How about this. Up until the Ausgleich Transylvania was ruled directly by Austria via a military governor and there was no love lost between the Hungarians and Romanians who actually fought against the Hungarians during their uprising in 1848. Perhaps during the Congress of Paris as a neutral observer Austria could suggest rather than having the Danubian Principalities of Moldavia and Wallachia become quasi-independent self-governing principalities that they instead be joined with Transylvania under a cadet branch of the Habsburg family as the Kingdom of Romania? Set it up as a Belgium of the Balkans by requiring the country to remain perpetually neutral and so that the European powers recognise and guarantee its neutrality and I think you could get the allies backing. The Ottomans wont like it since they don't get even a fig leaf of keeping them as quasi-independent territories but nobody really cares about them, the Russians really wont like it but they lost so ditto but the allies could well support it since it effectively locks Russia out of the Balkans and keeps them away from the Ottoman Empire. The Habsburg get to see their rival for the Balkans Russia shut out of the region, get rid of a ethnic minority and have a friendly monarch controlling the mouth of the Danube.

 

[Vitruvius]

How about this. Up until the Ausgleich Transylvania was ruled directly by Austria via a military governor and there was no love lost between the Hungarians and Romanians who actually fought against the Hungarians during their uprising in 1848. Perhaps during the Congress of Paris as a neutral observer Austria could suggest rather than having the Danubian Principalities of Moldavia and Wallachia become quasi-independent self-governing principalities that they instead be joined with Transylvania under a cadet branch of the Habsburg family as the Kingdom of Romania?

The main problem with this is that Max has just destroyed his chance of reconciling with the Hungarians. They see Transylvania as an inseparable part of the Kingdom of Hungary. Uniting it with Hungary proper under a single administration was one of their main goals. And it has a large Hungarian Szekely population at its eastern edge which would be at the heart of this new Romania. So it would become a source of anti-Habsburg sentiment and Hungarian irredentism and we saw how well that played out post WWI.

Other than that I like the idea, maybe they just give up Bukovina and force the Ottomans to cede northern Dobruja to secure the 'neutrality and open passage of the Danube' or something like that. So basically a slightly larger version of OTL pre WWI Romania as a buffer between Russia and the Ottomans. I think Max would have to follow up pretty quickly with plans for Hungary and Croatia because setting the precedent of a Romanian Nation-State without quickly addressing simmering nationalism within Austria is a recipe for disaster.

This started me think on what Archdukes are around at this point-at least compared to the plethora of Archdukes one encounters by the end of the century. There's actually not all that many that would be suitable.

Of Max's two brothers only Karl Ludwig is suitable, in '53 he's unmarried. But Max is too and has no heir so Karl Ludwig is his heir. So putting his brother on foreign thrones is a bad idea.

The Duke of Teschen has three surviving sons, only one is married. One will succeed as Duke of Teschen so that leaves two.

Joseph Palatine of Hungary has two sons, neither is married. One will succeed his father as Count Palatine of Hungary so that leaves one.

Archduke Johann has already contracted a Morganatic marriage so he's probably going to be passed over.

Archduke Ranier Joseph has five sons but they're all under 30. And he's already proven to be an inflexible conservative as demonstrated by his disastrous stint as Viceroy of Italy. And there was no love lost between his family and Maximilian so again likely to be passed over.

So I count three serious candidates, not that many given the size of the family.

 

[Arrix85]

The idea (and the discussion) looks interesting. Is it gonna be a TL?

 

[abc123]

The main problem with this is that Max has just destroyed his chance of reconciling with the Hungarians. They see Transylvania as an inseparable part of the Kingdom of Hungary. Uniting it with Hungary proper under a single administration was one of their main goals. And it has a large Hungarian Szekely population at its eastern edge which would be at the heart of this new Romania. So it would become a source of anti-Habsburg sentiment and Hungarian irredentism and we saw how well that played out post WWI.

Other than that I like the idea, maybe they just give up Bukovina and force the Ottomans to cede northern Dobruja to secure the 'neutrality and open passage of the Danube' or something like that. So basically a slightly larger version of OTL pre WWI Romania as a buffer between Russia and the Ottomans. I think Max would have to follow up pretty quickly with plans for Hungary and Croatia because setting the precedent of a Romanian Nation-State without quickly addressing simmering nationalism within Austria is a recipe for disaster.

This started me think on what Archdukes are around at this point-at least compared to the plethora of Archdukes one encounters by the end of the century. There's actually not all that many that would be suitable.

Of Max's two brothers only Karl Ludwig is suitable, in '53 he's unmarried. But Max is too and has no heir so Karl Ludwig is his heir. So putting his brother on foreign thrones is a bad idea.

The Duke of Teschen has three surviving sons, only one is married. One will succeed as Duke of Teschen so that leaves two.

Joseph Palatine of Hungary has two sons, neither is married. One will succeed his father as Count Palatine of Hungary so that leaves one.

Archduke Johann has already contracted a Morganatic marriage so he's probably going to be passed over.

Archduke Ranier Joseph has five sons but they're all under 30. And he's already proven to be an inflexible conservative as demonstrated by his disastrous stint as Viceroy of Italy. And there was no love lost between his family and Maximilian so again likely to be passed over.

So I count three serious candidates, not that many given the size of the family.

I agree that solution with "united Romania" isn't the happyest.
About Hungary and Croatia, maybe Max could introduce something like OTL first proposal of October Manifesto?
IMO they would be satisfied with that.
That's not far from OTL Ausgleich.


But what would Austria get by excluding Russia from the Balkans? Enimity of Russia, and we know how it ended OTL. With a WW1.

Better to be:
a) neutral ( let Russia to what she wants )
b) join Russia ( attack Ottomans inBosnia and conquer Bosnia before Serbs can try the same ). After conquest of Bosnia give Bosnia to Croats, to placate them either for accepting October Manifesto or for OTL solution after 1867 ).
If we go this path that puts Austria in conflict with France and prevents any deal with them about Italy.
On the other hand, it might be a solution for Balkans problems of Monarchy, so in the end, it is all in question- what is more useful/dangerous for Monarchy? Situation in Italy or in Balkans?

 

[Gonzaga]

It's really a pitty that the POD can't butterfly the death of Princess Maria Amélia, who would be the first wife of Maximilian. Had she lived than we would have the interesting situation where - if the rumours about Maximilian being a son of Napoleon II were right - a grandson of Napoleon would be married to the granddaughter of his stepson (Eugene de Beauharnais, son of Josephine).