What if Franz Ferdinand's driver had the proper directions?

Ferdinand survives, and every crisis that nearly results in a major war is resolved peacefully. In the year 1950 Britain invents the bomb. The rest of the major European powers all do the same by 55.

How different is the world today, for better or worse?
 
Last edited:
Erm. I don't see this happening. The reason WW1 happened was because most of the major powers in Europe were itching for a war. And so they got one. Unless you address this basic problem, the scenario isn't going to happen. Instead, WW1 is simply going to start a year or two late with a different trigger, a different order, and possibly a different outcome.

If you REALLY push it back into 1955, congrats, now WW1 is going to be fought with nuclear weapons. Or you are going to have Europe turning into a massive armed camp with nuclear missiles all pointed each other. You have a multipolar cold war, and I doubt that's going to be good. I foresee some stupid Balkan Incident is still very likely to cause the whole continent to go boom.

You need a different PoD than Franz Ferdinand surviving to butterfly WW1--perhaps increased trade and decreased military spending?
 

bard32

Banned
It would have meant he'd have to stop and ask directions. Since he was a man, he thought he was right and you know how we men hate to ask for directions. :D
 
Basically, I see WWI happening just a bit later. Maybe starting in 1916 or 1917. Especially if the Easter Rising still takes place. How likely would it have been for the Kaiser to want to make some trouble, and as such covertly supply the Irish? And hwo difficult would it have been really for the British to find it? Maybe a few ultimatums over that...Germany gets ready to provoke Britain by calling upon that 1848 treaty she signed with Belgium... France sees the build-up, mistakes it for a second stab at French lands instead of Belgium, and France jumps the gun and invades Germany. Russia joins in...Austria-Hungary turns on Russia, Italy runs inthrough the south...the Balkans remain quiet...and there you have it.
 
Even if Franz Ferdinand didn't get assasinated then another thing would act as a trigger for WW1. The Balkans were tense already, though 1914 suppresed that.
Kaiser Wilhem II wanted Germany to have a place in the sun. I wonder if this could develop into some kind of Lebensraum searching war kind of thing.
 
I wonder where the assumption that if Franz Ferdinand's driver had proper direction the Archdiuke would survive comes from? IIRC on the planned route waited most of the assassins. So if the driver hadn't got lost, it becomes more likely that Franz Ferdinand would DIE:p
 
I wonder where the assumption that if Franz Ferdinand's driver had proper direction the Archdiuke would survive comes from? IIRC on the planned route waited most of the assassins. So if the driver hadn't got lost, it becomes more likely that Franz Ferdinand would DIE:p

The impliaction about Franz Ferdinand's driver having the proper directions is to his trip from the Sarajevo city hall to the hospital after his reception and after repeated failed attempts to assassinate already. Principe was by happenstance at the right place at the right time.
 
I see war as maybe occuring, however I am of the opinion that there is no given that a massive world war will occur. The first and second moroccan crisis did not end in war, Prince Councils gathered often to discuss major issues.

So either a conflict has to occur, or none will occur. If anything I see something more like the Cold war, with small conflicts in others regions using proxy governments, but no massive conflict. Perhaps the Tsar sits back and smiles as he makes up with his cousin, maybe Germany knows what a coward Italy is and withdraws fromt he alliance, maybe a war occurs in the Balkans, and nothing more.

So many things can happen that allow a conflict but not the massive world war everyone seems to assume will happen.
 
What efect would a postponed WWI have on the rise of Communism in Russia? If my infomation is correct (which it is likely not to be), Russia's continued involvement in WWI was an important reason for the support of the communists to grow to the size it did, and the Germans, wanting Russia out of the war, helped Lenin substantially.

Would the October Revolution still take place in November 1917?
 
The impliaction about Franz Ferdinand's driver having the proper directions is to his trip from the Sarajevo city hall to the hospital after his reception and after repeated failed attempts to assassinate already. Principe was by happenstance at the right place at the right time.
Can you rephrase what you have said, please? Somehow I've a problem in getting the gist of it/understanding what you're talking about:confused:.
 
Can you rephrase what you have said, please? Somehow I've a problem in getting the gist of it/understanding what you're talking about:confused:.

There were six assassins. Five of them chickened out; one threw a bomb, which hit the car behind them and injured a couple of people. After lunch, FF decides that he should go to the hospital to be all sympathetic, but the driver forgets and starts to go along the original route. Then he realizes he's going the wrong way and stops the car, directly in front of Gavrilo Prinzip (who had chickened out before). Prinzip shoots him.
 
Top