What if Franz Ferdinand was never assassinated?

What if Franz Ferdinand was never assassinated? Would WW1 happen? Would the Hasbjurgs still be in power in Austria? What reforms could he have made?
 

Deleted member 94680

Loads of threads on this (and variations of) on here already just search “Franz Ferdinand” for results
 
Stenz is correct, but sometimes a new debate can produce new insights. With that in mind I'll elaborate what I think would happen. Franz Ferdinand combined a plan to federalize the empire and give its minorities more autonomy with a hatred of anything Hungarian. The Hungarians will refuse to go along with any plans to alter the original Ausgleich agreement apart from some cosmetic changes because they don't want to lose power by sharing it. As it were, the renegotiations of the Ausgleich that took place every ten years always produced constitutional crises, but Franz Joseph held the country together every time.

Given his dislike of the Hungarians, Franz Ferdinand will push through his plans regardless of Hungarian objections. Two things can happen: 1) the Hungarians break away, producing a civil war in Central Europe that leads to the partition of the empire, or 2) the empire sticks together because the Hungarians realize they're better off as part of a great power than as a middle power on its own given the ambitions of its Serbian and Romanian neighbours and therefore grudgingly accept a compromise (possibly also because Germany gives the Hungarians a stern look).
 
Stenz is correct, but sometimes a new debate can produce new insights. With that in mind I'll elaborate what I think would happen. Franz Ferdinand combined a plan to federalize the empire and give its minorities more autonomy with a hatred of anything Hungarian. The Hungarians will refuse to go along with any plans to alter the original Ausgleich agreement apart from some cosmetic changes because they don't want to lose power by sharing it. As it were, the renegotiations of the Ausgleich that took place every ten years always produced constitutional crises, but Franz Joseph held the country together every time.

Given his dislike of the Hungarians, Franz Ferdinand will push through his plans regardless of Hungarian objections. Two things can happen: 1) the Hungarians break away, producing a civil war in Central Europe that leads to the partition of the empire, or 2) the empire sticks together because the Hungarians realize they're better off as part of a great power than as a middle power on its own given the ambitions of its Serbian and Romanian neighbours and therefore grudgingly accept a compromise (possibly also because Germany gives the Hungarians a stern look).
Which could just start a World War since Germany was looking for any excuse to cut Russia down to size, Russia wanted the Balkans and all the Slavs, France wants back Alsace and Lorraine, Italy wants the whole Adriatic, and the Ottomans still need a sugar daddy who is anyone but Russia. FF surviving changing none of the root causes of the First World War, only delays it while everyone tries to make up an excuse for it.

Hungarians threaten secession, Austrians tell them don't do it, Russians tell them to do it, Germans say don't, French say do, Italians say do, British look on in concern as the whole continental balance of power flops dead to the floor. That'd be an interesting scenario, I think at least. Might be too much of a stomp for the Russian side though (no Carpathian defenses means Austria's going to be in a world of hurt).
 
Which could just start a World War since Germany was looking for any excuse to cut Russia down to size, Russia wanted the Balkans and all the Slavs, France wants back Alsace and Lorraine, Italy wants the whole Adriatic, and the Ottomans still need a sugar daddy who is anyone but Russia. FF surviving changing none of the root causes of the First World War, only delays it while everyone tries to make up an excuse for it.

Hungarians threaten secession, Austrians tell them don't do it, Russians tell them to do it, Germans say don't, French say do, Italians say do, British look on in concern as the whole continental balance of power flops dead to the floor. That'd be an interesting scenario, I think at least. Might be too much of a stomp for the Russian side though (no Carpathian defenses means Austria's going to be in a world of hurt).

Either that or Germany partakes in the partition of its erstwhile ally, annexing the German speaking parts plus Bohemia. That would give Germany a population of like 90 million and the most industrialized parts of A-H. Simultaneously, the demise of A-H eliminates a lot of reasons for hostility between Russia and Germany. With A-H out of the picture, there is no more conflict of interest in the Balkans between it and Russia. Meanwhile, with control of the Balkans assured, Russia can turn its attention to the Bosporus, which will raise great concerns in London.
 
The biggest misconceptions about Austria Hungary on this site are probably

1. It was politically re negotiated every ten years

Reality=it wasn't, certain economic issues were settled every ten years

2. united states of greater Austria was not just possible (very very difficult to do in my opinion) but was actually the most likely outcome if franz Ferdinand survived.

Reality=trialism and greater voting rights to Hungarian working class is likely, trialism as a whole was far more [popular than federalism and actually took place towards end of the war.

3. The national minorities including Hungarians were eager to bring down the empire and mutiny/civilwar/ww1 would take place had the Hapsburgs pissed them off in some way.

Reality= The most antagonistic groups in early 20th century Austria-hungary were ethnic serbs and Hungarian nobles, most were content with the situation and loyal to the Hapsburgs the largest opposition was seen in riots and little more. THe Hungarians were very unlikely to try and declare independence if franz reduced their power, for example of this see plan U in 1905-6 where the honved declared martial law and disbanded the parliament, staying loyal to a monarchy they assumed was reducing power of Hungarian nobility and granting further rights to minorities.

The idea that any attempt to reform the empire would result in civil war is pretty annoying.
 
He would set the two pillars of the Austro-Hungarian state against each other and quite possibly bring the whole thing crashing down.

It's also possible that FF manages to push through his "reforms" - transforming the Habsburg monarchy into a more centralized, militarist and authoritarian state. (Contrary to popular misconceptions, neither democratization nor federalization were on Franz Ferdinand's agenda. At all. Neither was any kind of land reform - FF may have hated Hungarians, but he was all about the aristocracy in general.)

In that case, he will start a war within a few years by going after Italy and/or Serbia. This will likely evolve into a continental war; the outcome is not certain. With the moderating influence of Budapest removed, and various militarists and far-right parties given free reign, the Austria of Franz Ferdinand will wage war in an exceptionally brutal, bloody and repressive manner. Even more so than the Austria of OTL did - and that's saying something.

So even in the unlikely event of CP victory, one we can expect massive alienation and destablization in Franz Ferdinand's Austria. Between FF's general ultra-reactionary nature, the wartime repression, and all sorts of expensive foreign adventures, the Habsburg regime is likely to go down at some point.
 
The biggest misconceptions about Austria Hungary on this site are probably

1. It was politically re negotiated every ten years

Reality=it wasn't, certain economic issues were settled every ten years

2. united states of greater Austria was not just possible (very very difficult to do in my opinion) but was actually the most likely outcome if franz Ferdinand survived.

Reality=trialism and greater voting rights to Hungarian working class is likely, trialism as a whole was far more [popular than federalism and actually took place towards end of the war.

3. The national minorities including Hungarians were eager to bring down the empire and mutiny/civilwar/ww1 would take place had the Hapsburgs pissed them off in some way.

Reality= The most antagonistic groups in early 20th century Austria-hungary were ethnic serbs and Hungarian nobles, most were content with the situation and loyal to the Hapsburgs the largest opposition was seen in riots and little more. THe Hungarians were very unlikely to try and declare independence if franz reduced their power, for example of this see plan U in 1905-6 where the honved declared martial law and disbanded the parliament, staying loyal to a monarchy they assumed was reducing power of Hungarian nobility and granting further rights to minorities.

The idea that any attempt to reform the empire would result in civil war is pretty annoying.

If the war was delayed long enough, the Tsar could mess up something enough to cause a socialist revolution (though probably not by Lenin.) The Germans could support this since they could get in some land in exchange for aiding the rebels (and probably letting the Russians keep a bit of the Balkans for sea access). Finland would also help in exchange for independence. This in turn could cause a surge of stength for the socialists back in Germany.

The collapse of the Russian monarchy could also coerce the Hungarian nobles into compliance since the alternate would be full-blown revolution.
 
I think that is a far more likely result in the short term, Russia was experiencing a lot more unrest and social stratification than Austria-hungary. A major disturbance in Russia would definitely promt the Hapsburgs to begin land reform in some way, if they haven't already.
 
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