What if France won the Franco-Prussian War?

Derailing the Ausgleich would be an idea FJ would have liked. Especially if a short victorius war strengthens the central gvmt. Going back to pre 1866 would not be possible, but reversing it a bit - yes.

A "short victorious war"? It will be short, what with all its neighbours piling on Austria, not to mention the Hungarian government recalling its regiments (even a thick-headed reactionary like FJ should be able to experience a deja vu), but the idea that Austria can conjure a victory out of thin air is ludicrous.

BTW, the Ausgleich was a painful compromise that allowed the last Habsburg emperor to gain an extension of the lease :D without it, I believe that "felix Austria" would fail to see the dawn of the 20th century
 
Why should they do this ITTL?

Piling on Austria - which neighbours?

The Italians - got their beating 4 years before?
The Russians - might gang up with the Prussians sure...
Germany - already fighting the Prussians with the french - (this SVW)

The Hungarian "regiments" are sworn to the Emperor - even if the fledgeling Honved stays at home ITTL the "common" regiments might be enough (and if the Russians attack the Honved will muster ...)
 
Why should they do this ITTL?

Piling on Austria - which neighbours?

The Italians - got their beating 4 years before?
The Russians - might gang up with the Prussians sure...
Germany - already fighting the Prussians with the french - (this SVW)

The Hungarian "regiments" are sworn to the Emperor - even if the fledgeling Honved stays at home ITTL the "common" regiments might be enough (and if the Russians attack the Honved will muster ...)

Because it would be the proof that the Ausgleich is just a piece of paper.

For the rest,Russia has a secret compact with Prussia, committing to mobilise 100k troops if Austria enters the war. It's not a maybe.
As far as Italy, Austria's main condition for an alliance with France was that also Italy had to participate. Strange, innit?:p
 
So the whole timeline is faulty because

1. the Russians don't attack
2. The Italians are not joining France+AH

BTW

for 1.: I think this can be plausible if the Russians 2break" the agreement because they think Prussia is already as good as beaten becuase A-H joins only AFTER the French have done the most work... (maybe the FR/A-H/DK had feelers in Moscow)

for 2.: maybe A-H did no longer see this necessary to happen as Prussia already got their a__ handed when A-H joined, so Italian involvement is no longer seen as a threat (especially after the experiences in the 1866 war) and if A-H gets some hint from France that Russia might NOT join as they have been convinced that the Prussian cause is lost... ;)
 
The TL is ASBish.No way FRance can beat the Prussians alone, no way Austria - who's the only prospective ally, DK is a pipedream - will enter the war.

BTW: do you know why Russia gave the reassurance to Prussia? Indulge my curiosity
 
I have not full information on the topic but overlla i think there were several reasons for Russia supporting the Prussian side

1. Crimean War - Frech was an Enemy then and Austria NOT helpful (;))
2. Polish Question - French were friendly to Poland (and Polish people) - the same holds true for Austria

While Austria was friendly TO the French (revanchism) it felt too weak (financially) to go on another trip to war (especially after the Russians supported the Prussians

I believe that: if the Russians were somehow negated in the equation A-H would have been more inclined to act.

Italy could also have been swayed (the King and Gvmt were pro French) by concessions (at least concerning Rome)
 
Austria-Hungary joining the war like this POD on the French side, seems obvious, but that isn't a necessarily so. Austria-Hungary, like I wrote in this thread before, might even join the 'German' side, if France gets too successful, in a kind of defensive damage control role and Prussia would be willing to accept a price, maybe the restoration of Hanover, Hesse and Nassau?
A reconquest of Silesia will probably stay a revanchist dream though.
Speaking of symbolic regions any change to Schleswig-Holstein will not be liked by any 'German' state, especially Prussia and Austria. However I can see Schleswig, unlike Holstein and Lauenburg, not a member of the former German Confederation, being returned to Denmark as part of a treaty.

OTOH there could be internal issues between the Austrians and Hungarians, which could limit the possibilities of Austria.
 
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