What if France won the Franco-Prussian War?

Hello all, Le Pistolet here!

I'm new to these parts, but have been a long time reader of some of the brilliant stuff you guys come up with. I have been gathering a lot of inspiration from your threads and have finally started up with my own, based off what would happen if France won the Franco-Prussian War. The POD is a French victory at the Battle of Wissembourg, and then a series of consecutive victories which allow them to push into Germany and win.

The general path I forsee is basically a switch between German and French fortunes. Prussia/Germany will become very Republican, whilst France will become more and more autocratic under the Second Empire. Eventually they will branch out more and more and come into conflict with Britain. Some spark here will cause a Anglo-Prussian alliance against France, similar to WWI, but with France as your bad guys.

France will then lose this war, due to the might of the British Empire, and maybe due to the US getting involved too. They will then spiral into depression after losing all their economic assets, such as their Empire, and the acquired Rhineland. This will then lead to the rise of a extreme right who want revenge. Cue WWII with a French style Hitler.

After this I don't know what would happen, any ideas?

For now, I have just worked out the first year. This is my first timeline and I have tried to be as detailed as possible to make it interesting, but I realise that things may be a little unrealistic as I don't really have much knowledge of how warfare at the time was conducted. I don't see this as hugely important though, as the gist of it is still the same.

I do need some help on what we think the agreements in the Treaty of Berlin should be. Obviously the fragmentation of Germany and annexation of parts to France/Austria and Denmark, but is there anything else? This is probably the most important thing in terms of future consequences down the line.

Anyway, here goes! Thanks in advance for reading, and any comments would be hugely welcome!


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1870

Early August

• On the 1st August 1870 Napoleon III falls seriously ill and is forced to retire from the campaign against the Prussian armies. He returns to Paris and names Marshal MacMahon as the supreme commander of the French armies.
• Utilising his supreme command, MacMahon reacts to the possibility of a potential Prussian attack at Wissembourg and repositions his divisions close to the town on the evening of the 3rd of August.
• On the 4th August, the expected attack came, and the German 3rd Army encountered a well defended French position, aided by the range of their Chassepot rifles.
o The Prussian army, unable to make any significant headway against the strong French position, fall back and occupy the town of Wissembourg.
• The battle affirmed MacMahon’s fears of the strength of the Prussian army, and reinforcements were brought to the fore right away. The hope was to cut off the Prussian reinforcements and crush the resistance in the town.
• On the 6th August, French reinforcements arrived and began to bombard the town of Wissembourg. Although the Prussians brought in reserves, they were outflanked by newly arriving French divisions, and soon the town became cut off. Despite a valiant defence by the Prussian army, and intense street fighting throughout the day and the night of the battle, the town finally fell back into French hands, and was considered a solid French victory.
o The French army’s morale was significantly boosted, for they had thwarted the enemy’s first forays into their country.
o Conversely, morale dropped in the Prussian ranks as they had been rebuffed by a strong defensive opponent, and had failed to make any headway.
• MacMahon, eager to capitalise on the victory at the Battle of Wissembourg, orders his men across the border and into Germany. His hope is to liberate the Rhineland, and Prussia’s German allies, before taking on the behemoth itself. He also hopes to win Austrian support and aid in his war, for they have not yet chosen to intervene, despite initial French hopes to the contrary.

Mid August

• After the breakout at Wissembourg, French armies head northwards to Frankfurt and southwards to Stuttgart. Other armies further north aim for Cologne, Essen and Dusseldorf, hoping to choke the Prussian economic heartland, and protect the more Northern French borders from Prussian invasion by a lightening attack.
• Bolstered by their victories up and down the French borders against the green Prussian recruits, the French army win battle after battle, pushing the Prussian forces back and back.
• On the 10th August, the Battle of Sindelfingen (near Stuttgart) is a crushing French victory. The Prussian forces are forced to retreat to Stuttgart, and the Siege of Stuttgart begins in earnest on the 11th August. It will continue for three weeks.

Late August

• On the 25th August, after several battles such as the Battle of Heidleberg, the Battle of Eberstadt and the brief Siege of Mainz, the Siege of Frankfurt begins. This siege is the longest siege of the campaign, and will conclude in mid-November. The siege also sees the biggest loss of German civilian life throughout the entire course of the war.
• The Austro-Hungarian Empire, inspired by the French victories and seeing troops besieging Frankfurt, decide to take their revenge on Prussia and declare war on the 29th August. This declaration of war takes Europe by surprise, and seems to be a complete change of heart for Austria. The Prussians are severely underprepared to fight two military giants, and morale reaches a new low.

Early September

• Stuttgart becomes the first major city to fall to the French armies on the 2nd September. The French troops move on from Stuttgart to Augsburg, hoping to meet up with Austro-Hungarian troops there.
• The French army start the Siege of Cologne on 9th September.

Mid September

• After meeting little German resistance in the southern states, and after several resounding victories in what turn out to be little more than skirmishes, the Austro-Hungarian armies reach the walls of Munich by 14th September. The Siege of Munich only lasts little over two weeks before the citizens surrender.
• The Siege of Essen begins on the 17th September. It sees determined German resistance, but ultimately falls due to the sheer weight of numbers France pours into the city.
• On the 19th September, French forces win an outstanding victory in the Battle of Ulm, capturing thousands of Prussian soldiers. They also succeed in capturing the city two days later with little resistance. It seems that at least in southern Germany, the enemy are quickly becoming disheartened.


Late September

• On the 23rd September, French and Austrian forces begin the Siege of Augsburg. The first day sees enormous amounts of artillery concentrated on the city in an awesome display of firepower and dominance.
o A previously unknown German composer, and inhabitant, Adrienne Blume, writes a piece based off what he experienced that night, called Donnernacht, or Thunder Night.
• On the 29th September, after a day of door to door fighting in the city, Munich falls to the Austrian soldiers. These troops are moved up to aid at Augsburg.

October

• General MacMahon launches his famous Offensive d’Octobre (October Offensive). With the permission and blessing of Napoleon III he sends a rallying call across France for new troops to bolster their ranks and finally put an end to the Prussian menace.
• During the offensive, the entire Rhineland begins to fall.
o The Siege of Dusseldorf ends a month after it began, on the 9th October
o Despite stiff resistance Essen eventually surrenders and falls into French hands on the 27th October.
• In the South and West, Franco-Austrian or Austrian forces take city after city too, experiencing far less resistance than in the East.
o Nuremburg falls on the 18th October after the very brief two week Siege of Nuremburg
o After the Siege of Dresden, the city is captured by an Austrian army on the 24th October.

November

• Liepzig falls into Austrian hands on the 7th November. Wilhelm I becomes increasingly worried that the Franco-Austrian forces will reach be completely victorious before Christmas.
• In the North, bolstered by the events, and also eager for revenge, Denmark declare war out of nowhere against Prussia on the 10th November.
• In a rapid, evidently premeditated attack, Danish forces begin the Siege of Hamburg on the 12th November.
• On the 16th November, the Siege of Frankfurt finally comes to an end as the citizens surrender themselves to the French troops due to complete starvation. Reports come out about the conditions the Germans were subjected to during the siege, and appal Europe. There is much outcry from more liberal press in France, but it is mostly ignored.
• The Franco-Austrian and Danish alliance comes under the name of the Western Coalition. Supreme commanders meet in Essen to discuss the future of the war.
o A photograph taken here will become famous throughout the ages, and will become synonymous with MacMahon, appearing in every future historical publication on him.
• Western Coaliton forces finally all meet at the Battle of Magdeburg on the 29th November , where they resoundingly defeat what appears to be the last surviving vestiges of Prussian resistance.
• Reports come out of Berlin of an uprising against Wilhelm I. Protestors take to the streets in a violent uproar, attacking garrisoned soldiers and campaigning for an end to the war before it is too late. Wilhelm feels pressured, but is persuaded by Bismarck not to give in. Instead the riot is suppressed violently, and reports state that at least one hundred Berliners are killed in the street skirmishes, but it could have been many, many more.

December

• Western Coalition forces make it finally to Berlin by the 9th December. Plans for the German surrender are drawn up whilst artillery is brought into place to subject Berlin to a horrific bombardment. MacMahon hopes not to have to shell or attack the city, and hopes that the outcries of the Berliners will bring Wilhelm I to the negotiating table.
o As Napoleon III is feeling much better, he is called for from Paris, and begins his journey Eastward for the negotiations.
• On the night of the 9th December, riots break out all over Berlin and last for three days. MacMahon refuses to bombard the city for fear of killing too many citizens who are actually aiding him. Instead, they sit and wait and watch Berlin in flames.
• On the 13th December, Wilhelm I and Otto von Bismarck make their way to Sanssouci Palaces in Potsdam to meet with the negotiators.
• On the 16th December, after Napoleon III’s arrival and several days of hard negotiations, the Treaty of Berlin is declared, and the Western Coalition are officially victorious in what becomes known as the Prussian War.
 
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Interesting. Given the swollen nature of Napoleon III's head it would take a severe injury or illness to get him to be sensible and let more sensible people run the war.
 
It will now be the Prussians with the revanchist notions if the treaty terms include territorial changes. What alliances for the next war might Prussia seek? And how will this effect the formation of Germany? A-H becomes the presiding spirit of this? Or does France veto any efforts of a consolidation of the Germans?
 
Interesting - though it depends on the post war development. What are the treaty terms?

I assume France will push for the "Rhine" border (how far north?).

Does Austria demand Silesia?

What does Austria with her losses to Italy (last 20-30 years?) - Austria had beaten the Italians in 1866, but was in turn defeated by the Prussians. With a weak PRussia what does Austria to Italy.

Italy could lean to France, but france would demand concessions (Sardinia, Parts of mainland Italy) for protection?

I assume the german states would remain largely independent (at least Bavaria, Würtemberg, Saxonia)

Why would France be the "bad guy" in the next war...

I can see them be opposite of Britain (being the first power of the continent - Britain would support the opposition). The Fashoda incident might llead to a colonial war ITTL.

Give us something to work with...

(What does Russia - I assume Russia is siding with Prussia - after war at least)
 
A French victory is not at all unlilkely, but I doubt we would see anything on this order. The Southern german states are more likely to sdurrender quickly and without protracted resistance if a clearly superior French army invades, and I cannot see the Prussians keep up resistance to that degree. Certainly Bismarck would try to negotiate a surrender long before the enemy was in Berlin, not least because he would fear popular unrest.

One early and decisive French victory could well be a replay of Sadova.
 
Yeah I don't see a long drawn out war being necessary, though it might take more than a single battle. Some of the major or larger states will seek peace quickly probably on the back of an Austrian Armed Mediation offer.

I don't think either Prussia ( the Rhineland) or Germany is cohesive enough in 1870 to withstand a long defensive war.

Nor do I see anyone except the French wanting the Rhine frontier directly annexed to France.

Bring back Westphalia I say.
 
Good timeline. However, just a few things:

  1. You do realize that if Austria joins the war they may have serious repercussions after that.
  2. What will be the terms of the treaty?
  3. How does the rest of Europe react to it?
  4. France cannot be the bad guy here. They may have won the war but still their military is inferior to Britain so just in case of a colonial war that bad guy would be Britain.
  5. I think South Germany would not be able to put up a fight with France, so Prussia is open to destruction.
  6. As an FYI, whose most likely to colonize their areas Germany colonized in OTL?
 
Thanks for the comments guys, appreciate it!

I was actually looking for your help with the treaty, so any ideas what would be the most likely outcome? I'm thinking increased French influence in Western Germany (along with obvious annexation of the Rhineland), as well as maybe the eventual purchase and annexation of Luxembourg now Prussian influence is broken. Austria will obviously steal parts for itself and exert influence in Southern Germany. Down the line I see Russia maybe see Austria as a threat and funding seperatists, leading to the dismantling of the Empire. Denmark will have Schleswig and Holstein re-annexed of course. Anything else I've missed or should put in?

By France as the bad guys, I meant they would be the antagonists, but this may only be due to Britain pushing them this way...

I don't know about German Africa, maybe France Britain and Italy would have more say. Maybe even Austria should get some?

Any suggestions would be great! Knock yourselves out!
 
IIRC, Luxembourg and the Saar were France's planned war goals. I doubt they could really take much more; Anything more, and they would upset the balance of power enough so that France would be conjuring up images of neo-Bonapartism, worrying pretty much everyone else in Europe. If the Austrians enter, I would imagine Silesia would be on the table.

The thing about France here is that they really did appear as the bad guys to most of Europe, because they did declare war (albeit after Bismarck published the Ems dispatch, following which not declaring war would be politically impossible). So up until Prussian demands for Alsace-Lorraine, Prussia actually had the support of most of Europe, a situation which would not be improved by large annexations.
 

Esopo

Banned
[*]France cannot be the bad guy here. They may have won the war but still their military is inferior to Britain so just in case of a colonial war that bad guy would be Britain.

[/LIST]

France military has never been inferior to britain's until 1940. Fleet and military are different things.
 
I personally hope such a victory could buoy the Bonaparte Regime. I'm not sure though that it mandates a return to the more authoritarian days of the early Second Empire.
 
Austria did not go colonia OTL, so you can assume that stays so ITTL.

Italy - depends on the way Austria "uses" the victory over Prussia - see my earlier post - but I think Italy will be considerably weaker TTL

(I assume an Austro-Frnch alliance is in the future certain here)

Colonies.

IIRC GErmany bought some Spanish posessions in the Pacific after the US Spanish war , so those might stay spanish ITTL (not sure)

German East and GErman Southwest might end up british (fit nice in OTLs Empire) Kamerun and Togo might be divvied up between UK and France (assume otls post WWI division here)

Italys Colonies - Libya was Ottoman until the Italians snatched it - TTL depends how OE fare ITTL - difficult (1870 POD is early)

Somalia=> UK
Erritrea divvy up between UK (Anglo Egypt Sudan) and France

I don't think russia will be MORE lobbying against Austria ITTL - they did enough OTL ;)

Austria victorious might "reverse" some of the Austro Hungarian Ausgleich tthus enabling an more "widespread" Ausgleich: calming the minorities - even triple to Quintuple Monarchy is possible - Austria/Hungary/Yugoslavia (w/o Serbs)/North SLavs (ie Czech Republic)/Galicia (they even had some "special" rights OTL IIRC). A strong(er=) Austria might have more influence on the Balkans. OTLS Russo Turkish war in the 80 might see different outcome Russia wants access to the Dardanelles UK wants to prevent that - France might be the 3rd party ´(not friendly to both Russia AND UK) that can use Austria to achive the result best for her (UK concessions in Africa for support of UK in the Dardanelles question)
 
Thanks for the comments guys, appreciate it!

I was actually looking for your help with the treaty, so any ideas what would be the most likely outcome? I'm thinking increased French influence in Western Germany (along with obvious annexation of the Rhineland), as well as maybe the eventual purchase and annexation of Luxembourg now Prussian influence is broken. Austria will obviously steal parts for itself and exert influence in Southern Germany. Down the line I see Russia maybe see Austria as a threat and funding seperatists, leading to the dismantling of the Empire. Denmark will have Schleswig and Holstein re-annexed of course. Anything else I've missed or should put in?

By France as the bad guys, I meant they would be the antagonists, but this may only be due to Britain pushing them this way...

I don't know about German Africa, maybe France Britain and Italy would have more say. Maybe even Austria should get some?

Any suggestions would be great! Knock yourselves out!

As a Hanover buff, what about a restored and extended Hanover as a west german buffer state between France, Prussia, Southern Germany etc. A ressurrected Westphalia without the name (its has pro-French
connotations and the French are clever enough to ensure a more neutral name is used - The restored and widened Kingdom of Hanover. No one could accuse the red-coated Hanoverians as being an obvious French client state)...
 

OS fan

Banned
Prussia had a good relationship with Russia, thanks to Bismarck's diplomacy. If the war takes longer, they might interfere on Prussia's side.
 
IMHO Austria would want to seize the opportunity to regain their position as the preeminent power in Germany, especially Southern Germany.
Becoming too pro-French might seriously hurt their position in Germany, entering the German side as the defender of Germany and at a heavy prize of Prussia, might be beneficial for Austria. OTOH both would want to humble Prussia, but France being too powerful in Germany isn't in Austria interests either.

Furthermore the UK wouldn't want France to become to dominant either, but in can see them demanding from Prussia to restore the kingdom of Hannover and in terms of territory Prussia will be back to the situation prior to the Austro-Prussian war. Maybe Schleswig, but not Holstein, will become Danish.

France might gain Luxembourg directly, but I don't see large annexations. However the threat of Prussia would have been reduced.
Germany as whole OTOH would give some possibilities; if Austria joins the German side, they should be able to manage a kind of stalemate and damage control.

An Austrian Silesia would probably require another Austro-Prussian war.
 
France would also like to make Belgium a satellite.

GB will never allow that and OTL Napo III never went against GB. what he just needs is a divided germany and a germany without bismarck. bismarck played him like a puppet. Napo will never negotiate with this guy. this can lead to a longer war if the prussian king refuses to sack bismarck (unlikely if they are losing).
Napo III can have luxembourg or/and saar because this annexation doesn't upset the balance of power in europe.

i find this TL very interesting. if france wins, the Prussian model is no longer valuable. Germany will unite but in a very different form. i will follow your TL for that.
 
Given the POD, that the French Imperial Army of 1870 would do which you write would be in my opinion like saying that the Army of Northern Virginia of 1864 would be able to rout the Union armies at every battle and besiege New York.
That the French could establish a defensive line at Wissembourg, why not. But that they would score as much victories against Prussia in northern Germany, definitely not.

At first, the Prussian military was far more advanced and disciplined than the French Imperial Army. At the contrary of Niel, Roon, Moltke and Bismarck had successfully reformed the army. The Prussians had for them a superior artillery and a faster and more organized mobilization plan. Concerning this latter point, it's especially more obvious when you see how the French mobilized; Prince Napoleon, while accompanying the Emperor said that 'generals were looking for their divisions, colonels their regiments...'.
The main advantages the French had were the Chassepot, the Reffye, and a greater capacity to endure a long war.
However, because of the secrecy that was built around the mitrailleuses, when they left the warehouses, noone knew exactly how to use them and had to learn while fighting.
In 1870, the doctrine of the Imperial Army was focused on defense; when offensives were attempted, they ended in failures (Saar, Sedan).
What's more, the French had an inadapted doctrine of use of cavalry as means of scouting, which was in part responsible for Wissembourg and Sedan.
What's more, you mention that Austria intervenes, but not Russia. Yet, Bismarck had signed a secret treaty with the Tsar, stating that if Austria was to enter in the war against Prussia, Russia would declare war to Austria.


Unless you consider a POD earlier in the reign of Napoleon III, you couldn't get something like that.
In my opinion, a stalemate is the better thing that the French could reach. If they manage to get the Germans into a war of attrition, the French would win in the long run, as shown IOTL during the 20th century.
 
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