Well if invaded in spring, Napoleon had à chànce. Hard part is ruling Russia, it's so big.
No need to rule Russia, or all of it.
Some buffer states/allies, durable enough, to contain it, could be it (and what I see on the map seems to be that case*) - Poland (as on the picture?) or even Ottoman empire (it isn´t that long their vassal lost Crimea) or Austria (on one hand, not sue if its good idea to strenghten it, for France, on the other, Habsburgs are now Napoleon´s family too)
As for rulin Russia - you are right, on the other hand, how big was actually Russian population at that time (sure, big - heck, it wasn´t easy to invade Russia and rule it sitting on bayonettes 150 years before Napoleon- but it isn´t 20th century behemoth yet...)
*speaking about map - I would ad Volynhia to Poland/Lithuania, for aesthetic reason at least, I don´t like that wedge between Galicia, Poland and Lithuania