What if France lost the First World war but won the second?

Supposing the US never gets itself involved, Paris is captured, the British get off relatively easy as Germany the new leader of Europe wants to eventually have a cordial relationship again, a few colonies here and there, an agreement not to get involved in the affairs of the continent, a few token reparations.

France however feels the full might of German revanchism for daring to challenge them twice after they'd already slapped then down once.

The Germans annex the rest of Lorraine, and strip the country of every single colony including Algeria which involves a nasty ethic cleansing of it's French population, Corsica is set up as an "independent" state under German influence.

The nation has lost so much, utterly defeated, Champagne, and Franche-Comtât are demilitarized, and France is forced to pay heavy reparations, restrictions on their navy, airforce, and armed forces.

The nation that once almost ruled Europe even lost the homeland of Napoleon.

But the French collectively burn with rage, but they can't really do much about it, Paris is looted, the Eiffel tower is dismantled and moved to Berlin.

They're crushed their, but the ember's burn.

When a pragmatic and cunning leader comes to power.

The Germans ease up believing that a generation which has passed is part of a new tamed France, they lift a few restrictions, and even allow for France to remilitarize it's dematerialized zone.

When the unthinkable (to the Germans occurs) The French march though Belgium 'liberating' the country and outright annex Wallonia, the Dutch turn down their offer to join them in exchange for Flanders.

They move swiftly a new kind of war lighting fast, the Germans hadn't been prepared for this, as it's satellites to it's east rebel, Germany finds itself loosing ground day by day, and the French are merciless, civilians suffer just as much as the armies who were supposed to protect them, vast swats of Germany and looted and burned, leaving nothing's but rubble, scorched Earth, and a few terrified civilians.

The British true to their word stay out of the affairs of Europe though there's quite an outcry as to the brutality of their campaign.

Eventually Berlin sues for peace.

Now we have a new French order for Europe a dream of Napoleon is finally a relaity.

Now in this new French order what happens to Germany?

They've been defeated, unexpectedly they were so sure of themselves and now all may well be lost.

1)does this sound plausible?
2)what might the maps look like?
 
Any french gains are reversed in ten years or less when England is shocked out of its isolation once France starts making noises about punishing perfidious albion... of course, this scenario requires Germany to be guzzling down lead paint in the first place.
 
The politics of it is possible, but the demographics and the economics don't match up.

Actually the political mind-set of mind, the developed French military mindset of deliberate battle as the operational art might not; and neither does the technology base fit without going completely ASB. May I make a small suggestion to fix it?

Given the situation is supposed to mirror Weimar Germany, but with France playing the role of the Germans, how about pairing off France and the Soviet Union in a new Com-intern? How that works is still borderline ASB, but I see the French Left out for revenge as just possibly more friendly to the "soviets" than RTL given the WW I debacle described in the OP. The Russians from their civil war and their war with Poland can impart to the French lessons about mobile warfare, and the French can help Trotsky (Stalin needs an ax to the face to make it work.) and his generals improve their staff-work and general level of planning in political and economic matters.

Charles de Gaul becomes a communist. That is a hoot!
 
Actually the political mind-set of mind, the developed French military mindset of deliberate battle as the operational art might not; and neither does the technology base fit without going completely ASB. May I make a small suggestion to fix it?

Given the situation is supposed to mirror Weimar Germany, but with France playing the role of the Germans, how about pairing off France and the Soviet Union in a new Com-intern? How that works is still borderline ASB, but I see the French Left out for revenge as just possibly more friendly to the "soviets" than RTL given the WW I debacle described in the OP. The Russians from their civil war and their war with Poland can impart to the French lessons about mobile warfare, and the French can help Trotsky (Stalin needs an ax to the face to make it work.) and his generals improve their staff-work and general level of planning in political and economic matters.

Charles de Gaul becomes a communist. That is a hoot!

Interesting.

I was kinda throwing ideas out I'm entirely open to any suggestions.
 

Deleted member 94680

I don’t see a victorious Imperial Germany becoming militarily incompetent in 20 years. Wilhelmine Germany was a militant society, practically worshipping the Heer and the officers of the Great General Staff. With a military politically independent of governmental control (presumably even more so in the aftermath of a successful *WWI), they would be free to pursue all advances in military technology at a whim. I just can’t see a German military becoming hidebound and slipping behind in advances such as motorisation and aviation, especially with an industrial base unaffected by reparations and the loss of infrastructure as in OTL.
 
I don’t see a victorious Imperial Germany becoming militarily incompetent in 20 years. Wilhelmine Germany was a militant society, practically worshipping the Heer and the officers of the Great General Staff. With a military politically independent of governmental control (presumably even more so in the aftermath of a successful *WWI), they would be free to pursue all advances in military technology at a whim. I just can’t see a German military becoming hidebound and slipping behind in advances such as motorisation and aviation, especially with an industrial base unaffected by reparations and the loss of infrastructure as in OTL.

Might want to take a look at a similar model; Spanish American War, United States. The US under Teddy Roosevelt investigated everything military that popped, swam, walked or flew. Once Taft and Wilson come in? Amateur hour.

Cannot say that a new Kaiser does not mean an 1840s Prussia repeats in the 1920s and 1930s.
 
I don’t see a victorious Imperial Germany becoming militarily incompetent in 20 years. Wilhelmine Germany was a militant society, practically worshipping the Heer and the officers of the Great General Staff. With a military politically independent of governmental control (presumably even more so in the aftermath of a successful *WWI), they would be free to pursue all advances in military technology at a whim. I just can’t see a German military becoming hidebound and slipping behind in advances such as motorisation and aviation, especially with an industrial base unaffected by reparations and the loss of infrastructure as in OTL.

Arguably, a society that worships the military may be actually worse at war. IE, if you can't question the military, you can't question them when they're wrong/off-base/whatever. Sure, they're free to do whatever they want, but what they want might actually be really dumb.

Also, the German war reparations honestly didn't harm the country much at all. The only part that really hurt was the moronic French attempt to collect on it faster by occupying the Ruhr (a failure in every imaginable way).

Hell, maybe the war reparations might have made the Weimar Republic MORE stable because it allowed the political class to blame an external threat (foreign reparations) for the economy being very very crappy.
 

Deleted member 94680

Might want to take a look at a similar model; Spanish American War, United States. The US under Teddy Roosevelt investigated everything military that popped, swam, walked or flew. Once Taft and Wilson come in? Amateur hour.

Not a similar model in the slightest. America in the 1910s was nothing like German societally or even politically.

Cannot say that a new Kaiser does not mean an 1840s Prussia repeats in the 1920s and 1930s.

You won’t get a new Kaiser until at least 1941.

Arguably, a society that worships the military may be actually worse at war. IE, if you can't question the military, you can't question them when they're wrong/off-base/whatever. Sure, they're free to do whatever they want, but what they want might actually be really dumb.

Maybe in some other society. But in Germany it doesn’t mean that at all. Seeing as though we’re talking about Germany, we should concentrate on Germany I think.

Also, the German war reparations honestly didn't harm the country much at all. The only part that really hurt was the moronic French attempt to collect on it faster by occupying the Ruhr (a failure in every imaginable way).

Fair point when it comes to the finances. But, and this is the crucial point, it hurt them massively militarily. Restrictions on what they could have, what they could build and what they could do with what they had meant for a good 20 years or so Germany’s military development was heavily retarded.

Hell, maybe the war reparations might have made the Weimar Republic MORE stable because it allowed the political class to blame an external threat (foreign reparations) for the economy being very very crappy.

Might apply to France in this scenario I suppose. But anyone who thinks Weimar Republic was stable in any way needs to read up more on the Weimar Republic. Saying something made Weimar more stable is kind of like saying something made the Titanic less sunk.
 
Fair point when it comes to the finances. But, and this is the crucial point, it hurt them massively militarily. Restrictions on what they could have, what they could build and what they could do with what they had meant for a good 20 years or so Germany’s military development was heavily retarded.

Might apply to France in this scenario I suppose. But anyone who thinks Weimar Republic was stable in any way needs to read up more on the Weimar Republic. Saying something made Weimar more stable is kind of like saying something made the Titanic less sunk.

Depends. It banned Germany from having a large land army, but this also forced the Reichswehr to be extremely innovative to make up for their small numbers. If say, Imperial Germany won early in 1914 through the Schleffein plan (big cavalry and infantry maneuvers), would they really conclude "oh, the way we used to wage war was really dumb, and we need to adopt a new method!" The military instead could go "we won by having a giant army with tons of men, so we need an even bigger army with more men."

Weimar was more stable than it could have been. It could have collapsed in 1919 or even in the 1920's.
 
Not a similar model in the slightest. America in the 1910s was nothing like German societally or even politically.

800px-Pickelhaube_US_Marines_corps%2C_casque_%C3%A0_pointe_des_marines_am%C3%A9ricains.jpg


You won’t get a new Kaiser until at least 1941.

Is that so?




 
I'd say the plausibility is pretty suspect in the current state. I doubt the Germans would have the will or the means to completely dismantle the French Empire like its own was in OTL. Keep in mind the fact that France had been in colonialism/imperialism game for longer and had a much larger overseas empire. For that to happen I think you'd need an earlier POD where Germany is able to accrue more land and therefore has a greater interest in taking, for instance, most of West Africa or Indochina. The image of them commandeering the Eiffel Tower is funny and would undoubtedly be a blow to French pride, though it seems on the excessive side to me. A ruined France putting their hopes in a charismatic leader postwar I feel is right on point however. Going on to defeat Germany only give-or-take 20 years afterward is gonna be hard to make happen. Unlike WW1 Germany, who almost never had to fight on their actual territory, much of France would be ruined and still well into the healing process by that point, and it'll probably take more than underestimation to have Germany ease its gaze on France enough to let it buildup the required forces. Now French victory still might be possible if they get the right allies, e.g. Russia, United States, United Kingdom (though I think its implied that the British take a neutral stance to the conflict), and work together with them while abusing the internal problems pluaging the Central Powers to eventually bring Germany to its knees. Territory wise, I think France would annex territory up to Rhine River, reclaim its lost colonies/take old German ones(or at least try to), and break up the nation into many smaller states.
 

Deleted member 94680

Ever hear of a this guy?


Yes. But that’s a musician famous for writing military marches, not a system of government.



You are aware that Wilhelm got out one horse ahead of the posse led by this guy?

To say it was “one horse ahead of a posse” is completely misrepresenting the timeline of Wilhelm’s abdication and exile to The Netherlands. A man who takes 23 train cars of personal possessions isn’t skipping out on anything.
Also, the “posse” was led by this guy if anything.

FC5-A9470-9-CA0-4-A3-E-A988-95-F7-EE25455-E.jpg


And what does any of that have to do with the PoD? If OTL he went into exile, watched his Empire become a Republic then a dictatorship and died of pulmonary embolism in 1941. In an ATL he has every chance of living even longer.
 
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I don’t see a victorious Imperial Germany becoming militarily incompetent in 20 years. Wilhelmine Germany was a militant society, practically worshipping the Heer and the officers of the Great General Staff. With a military politically independent of governmental control (presumably even more so in the aftermath of a successful *WWI), they would be free to pursue all advances in military technology at a whim. I just can’t see a German military becoming hidebound and slipping behind in advances such as motorisation and aviation, especially with an industrial base unaffected by reparations and the loss of infrastructure as in OTL.

The problem is the victors have the incentive to keep to what they know because they know it worked. They were the ones who won after all. It is easy to learn from your defeats since things did not work right. It is much harder to learn from your victories, because things did go right.

They don't have to become fully hidebound, they can just fall a little behind or go off on a tangent. For example, say they think the tanks that worked best in the war were heavy tanks. If the French realize that heavy tanks are a bad path to follow, they could invent something like the T-34 while the Germans have Char-B. It isn't that the Germans have not advanced, they just haven't advanced enough.

For that matter, it is possible that they could focus their efforts on a naval arms race with the British, figuring that with the French crushed, they need to put more effort into the navy.
 
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Yes. But that’s a musician famous for writing military marches, not a system of government.

That "musician" earned the name "The March King" for a reason. You don't become that famous in a cultural vacuum that is not receptive to a certain mind-set.

[QUOTE]You are aware that Wilhelm got out one horse ahead of the posse led by this guy?[/QUOTE]

To say it was “one horse ahead of a posse” is completely misrepresenting the timeline of Wilhelm’s abdication and exile to The Netherlands. A man who takes 23 train cars of personal possessions isn’t skipping out on anything.

Also, the “posse” was led by this guy if anything.
FC5-A9470-9-CA0-4-A3-E-A988-95-F7-EE25455-E.jpg


Wolfgang Kapp? Of the Kapp Putsch? He died in Sweden of cancer after the posse went after him. He was a big fat zero.

By the way the German led side of the posse was this pair of people:

220px-Hindenburg_and_Ludendorff.jpg


And what does any of that have to do with the PoD? If OTL he went into exile, watched his Empire become a Republic then a dictatorship and died of pulmonary embolism in 1941. In an ATL he has every chance of living even longer.

Because things do not happen in isolation?
 
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