BooNZ
Banned
No they really aren't- the Kaiser saw it, Moltke saw it, Falkenhagen saw it. In fact the whole German military saw it. And not only them, but the General staffs of France, Russia and even Britain saw it. Finally, even Conrad understood the need for the Germans to concentrate in the West. No one with any military training at all considered a move east because any move East with enough troops to even stand a chance in the East would leave the West open to collapse.
That's why the Kaiser didn't care about British or Belgian neutrality. He would rather fight both of them than strike East the idea is so bad. He only, briefly considered it, when he thought that both Britain and France would stay neutral- and even then he was only willing to do it if Britain guaranteed French neutrality.
No. What the Germans feared, along with every other major continental power was a long total war. Traditional thought was the strategic depth offered by Russia meant the Germans were not confident the Russians would yield quickly. In the event, all the major economies proved to be quite resilient, least of all Russia.
Even with your perfect 20/20 hindsight you can't come up with a plan that stands a realistic chance.
No plan is even required. If Belgium neutrality is respected, the Western front is kept short (with or without the Ardennes), the Germans are able to deploy and maintain stronger defenses than OTL in the West and have significant spare forces are available for service in the East.
Stand on the defensive in entrenched positions, the Germans suffer too many casualties and lose their iron mines. Go into Luxembourg and play out the Battle of the Ardennes against twice the force where they will be outflanked, encircled and destroyed with the German Reich
Lord Kalvert, could you remind us all how far the Anglo-French forces got against German defenses over four years, over an extended Western front, with superior Entente resources/numbers, with less defensible terrain and after the Anglo-French deficiencies in doctrine and heavy artillery had been substantially remedied?
If 4 German armies head East (instead of OTL circa 1.5 armies) then 60% of the OTL German Western forces will be defending 30-40% of the OTL Western front. In relative terms, the Germans defenders and artillery will be more numerous in the West than OTL. Unlike OTL, the majority of the front will be on defensible terrain. The condensed nature of the front, coupled with close proximity to a purpose built transport infrastructure results in Germans deploying artillery or reserves faster than OTL. On balance, the combined German losses being on the defensive on the Western front and routing the Russians on the East are likely to be far less than OTL. Within six months the CP will be swimming in manpower!
Conversely, the French had a doctrine focused entirely on the offensive, without undue emphasis on intelligence or artillery support. With serious shortages of heavy artillery and brightly coloured French tunics and trousers, if the French waste six months on offensives against fortified German positions, there will be hundreds of thousands of dead Frenchmen and vast numbers of maimed and wounded. Within six months the French will be facing a crisis of manpower and morale.
No matter how many times you try to make this work it takes bizarre assumptions (like the Russians missing a million men massing on their border and/or ignoring them and launching an offensive even though their plans called for otherwise) and then the Germans still have to thrash them about in Poland better than they did OTL- and by OTL, its the Battles up until the Spring of 1915 which is the time period we're talking about
Where the fcuk do you get a million men from? The accepted scenario is up to four German armies heading East, not six! Further, due to limitations of Eastern rail infrastructure only 2-3 would be able to be deployed initially. Therefore you are looking at somewhat less than half a million Germans deploying in the East in the first 2-3 weeks. This is entirely consistent with Russian expectations of up to 25 German divisions in the East, so it is unlikely Russians would abandon their mobilisation plan, established military doctrine and commitments to French allies as you suggest. It is absurd to think they would.
It is also reasonable to expect 4 armies to be able to do better than 1-2 did OTL. Actually, to think otherwise is quite absurd.
Citing examples from after the Russians had repeatedly broken their armies in offensives, subject to the blockade for eight months, had their shells supplies used up and hit with massive gas attacks (which the Germans can't launch in August 1914) doesn't cut it.
Generally speaking, any Russian-German battle that did not feature over-whelming Russian numbers resulted in serious Russian losses, with very few exceptions. It is not a matter of being selective with examples, the Russian Army were just really shit compared to the Heer.
The only plan they had that even had a smidgen of a chance was the one that Moltke devised. With French errors it almost worked
No matter if you break the Germans down into forty armies, it still doesn't change the troop levels. If they attack in the East with 16 corps, they will accomplish nothing. The Russians move to the defensive, swing the 4th army north and wait at their fortresses. The Germans arer repelled like they are OTL at the Battle of the Vistula and that was after the Russians had lost in East Prussia
OTL 5-6 German corps messed up the Russians badly. Most would suspect an additional 10+ corps could cause the Russians serious harm. In the battle of Vistula the Russians outnumbered a German and A-H forces, were on the defensive, but incurred twice the casualties as their CP counterparts - with victories like that, who needs defeats.
Now, if someone can find a German plan East put together by a competent General (reservists in the Medical corps don't count), it might be worth discussing. But everyone in the entire military staffs of Europe wrong?
As outlined above, no plan required. If more than two German armies turn up in the East, the Russians are in for a world of hurt