What if France found oil in Algeria before ww2

I have seen so many threads about Italy finding oil in Libya in the 1930s but none about France finding oil in Algeria
 
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I have seen so many threads about Italy finding oil in Libya in the 1930s but none about France finding oil in Algeria

The million Franc question is how expensive this oil is. Given the Franc is a steady currency and France has full access to global markets,it may not be profitable to exploit the oil in the 30's if it looks like the US is going to be willing to provide access to it's production
 

nbcman

Donor
The million Franc question is how expensive this oil is. Given the Franc is a steady currency and France has full access to global markets,it may not be profitable to exploit the oil in the 30's if it looks like the US is going to be willing to provide access to it's production
Oil only cost about 1 USD per barrel in the 1930s. So oil field development is not really that profitable of an exercise during that decade especially for countries that have sufficient currency reserves and access to global oil markets.
 
Oil only cost about 1 USD per barrel in the 1930s. So oil field development is not really that profitable of an exercise during that decade especially for countries that have sufficient currency reserves and access to global oil markets.

Which is probably why you hear more discussion about Italian and German access to oil, since they were burning gold and currency reserves in their raid build up and public works program and were under sanctions risks/pressures. Though, now that I think about it the bigger impact is probably going to be not in the 40's, but the 50's and 60's. If there's substantial oil reserves in Algeria, the French might be more keen on retaining their grip on the colony, especially post-Suez crisis once their political vulnerability becomes apparent. If the region is seeing a fresh influx of French capital, might the Putsch of 61 end up receiving more support by the French elites? Especially if the Algerians are planning to nationalize the oil production and De Gaulle can bring up the specter of Mosaddegh to Washington. Quite likely not enough to save French Algeria, but it could have an impact on how long the French try to stay and the nature of its independence
 
The million Franc question is how expensive this oil is. Given the Franc is a steady currency and France has full access to global markets,it may not be profitable to exploit the oil in the 30's if it looks like the US is going to be willing to provide access to it's production

Oil only cost about 1 USD per barrel in the 1930s. So oil field development is not really that profitable of an exercise during that decade especially for countries that have sufficient currency reserves and access to global oil markets.
For what it's worth Algerian oil was being produced in small quantities in the 1930s and 1940s.

Mediterranean 1932-51.png


Then it "took off" in 1958.
Mediterranean 1951-69.png
 
The million Franc question is how expensive this oil is. Given the Franc is a steady currency and France has full access to global markets,it may not be profitable to exploit the oil in the 30's if it looks like the US is going to be willing to provide access to it's production

Oil only cost about 1 USD per barrel in the 1930s. So oil field development is not really that profitable of an exercise during that decade especially for countries that have sufficient currency reserves and access to global oil markets.
An equally pertinent question is how much did Algerian oil cost in comparison to the large quantities of British coal that France was importing?
 
Germany still conquers France in 1940.
The Algerian oil will not be able to reach Germany due the Royal Navy. This might persuade the Italians into having a major naval battle with the Royal Navy which they would lose.
But in Germany's favor France would have larger oil reserves, which Germany would capture. That's going to be bad news for the Soviet Union in 1941/42.
 
Germany still conquers France in 1940.

The Algerian oil will not be able to reach Germany due the Royal Navy. This might persuade the Italians into having a major naval battle with the Royal Navy which they would lose.

But in Germany's favor France would have larger oil reserves, which Germany would capture. That's going to be bad news for the Soviet Union in 1941/42.
My guess is that the tankers would hug the North African coast until they reached the Sicilian Narrows so that they could remain within Vichy French territorial waters. Therefore, it would depend upon how scrupulously the British respected Vichy's neutrality.

In any case I think that the Vichy and Italian navies were strong enough to adequately defend the tankers from Royal Navy submarines and light surface forces operating from Gibraltar even if the tankers were sent straight to the west cost of mainland Italy or Marseilles.

As to a major battle between the RN and RM I'm sceptical about the Italians loosing. The tanker traffic from Algeria to Europe would be a tempting target, but remember that for most of 1940-41 Force H only consisted of one or two capital ships and Ark Royal backed up by a handful of cruisers and a flotilla of destroyers. Meanwhile a major beneficiary of the Algerian oil would have been the RM, which would have had enough fuel to keep all its capital ships operational and adequately trained. The RN could reinforce Force H to compensate, but that would mean weakening the Home and Mediterranean Fleets.

Also you haven't allowed for the Luftwaffe and RA strengthening their forces in Sardinia. Any British battle fleet operating in the western Mediterranean against the Algerian tanker traffic would receive a bloody nose in 1940-41 on the scale that the Mediterranean Fleet received from X. Fliegerkorps off Malta in January 1941 and from VIII. Fliegerkorps of Crete in May 1941.

From West to East the major oil ports in Algeria IOTL seem to be:
  • Arzew near Oran
  • Algiers
  • Bejaia
  • Skikda which is 113 miles from El Kala on the border with Tunisia
If I have read the maps showing the pipelines from the oil fields to the ports correctly Skikda is the port with the largest capacity as well as the port that has the shortest route to Italy. There is also an oil pipeline to the Tunisian port of Sfax, which is roughly half way between Tunis and the border with Libya.
 
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Germany still conquers France in 1940.
Agreed, but it does make France fights on from North Africa timelines more interesting.

If France still surrendered the Algerian oil and the French tankers needed to transport it would have been a valuable bargaining chip for the Vichy Government.
 
This brings up the other S-word of alternative history, Spain!

The Axis could supply Franco with the oil that he was asking for from Algeria. Though that still leaves the problem of finding the food that he was asking for.
I am guessing the food could come from Ukraine so maybe Spain will join
 
This brings up the other S-word of alternative history, Spain!

The Axis could supply Franco with the oil that he was asking for from Algeria. Though that still leaves the problem of finding the food that he was asking for.
Franco could use "neutral" Spanish tankers to transport oil Europe. Keeping his share and sending the rest to Germany.
 

Ramontxo

Donor
Mers el kebir... Any ship, even in the very improbable case of one under an American flag, carrying petrol for the nazis and meeting the RN is going to just one place...
 
Why does Algeria oil industry took off at 1958 but not in the 1930s ? I mean that the French have found oil in Algeria in the 1930s but why they don’t extract large quantities of oil? Is it because Algeria have a poor infrastructure like Libya?

Extraction and refinement was more profitable at 3$ a barrel than 1, which made the explotation more commercially viable, and I think there was a general shortage of investment capital in the 30's and 40's. Something about an economic downturn and disruptions to the normal pattern of trade... though I hear there were a solid few years in which the number of tourists from Germany reached record levels.
 
Extraction and refinement was more profitable at 3$ a barrel than 1, which made the explotation more commercially viable, and I think there was a general shortage of investment capital in the 30's and 40's. Something about an economic downturn and disruptions to the normal pattern of trade... though I hear there were a solid few years in which the number of tourists from Germany reached record levels.
The Great Depression did not stop Saudi Arabia and Albania from developing their own oil fields ...
 
Franco could use "neutral" Spanish tankers to transport oil Europe. Keeping his share and sending the rest to Germany.
Spain only had 16 tankers of 86,000 tons, gross in 1939. By contrast France had 48 tankers of 326,000 tons, gross and Italy had 82 tankers of 427,000 tons, gross.

Statement of World Tonnage 1939.png
 
The Great Depression did not stop Saudi Arabia and Albania from developing their own oil fields ...

Not all oil is the same for one (The Saudi stuff is very light and cheap to refine), nore did Albanians or Saudis have access to dollars and other currency reserves with which to reliably but cheaper oil on the international market. What seller in 1930 would accept Saudi currency in payment when all it could buy is stuff from Saudi Arabia?
 
Mers el kebir... Any ship, even in the very improbable case of one under an American flag, carrying petrol for the nazis and meeting the RN is going to just one place...
See Post 9 for a more thorough analysis, but in short...

The route the tankers will be taking is from ports at the eastern end of the Algerian coast to ports in Italy or Marseilles. Any attempt to attack a tanker convoy by the RN in the strength used to attack Mers-el-Kebir will receive a warm welcome from Luftwaffe aircraft based in Sardinia.
 
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