Or there might have been an earlier break-up. I think we could create plausible scenarios for all three options.
The only very likely thing is that both the *USSR and the world would be more different in a world where Finland never gained independence than many people seem to assume. Being Finnish myself, I think there is a strange discrepancy between people, especially from bigger nations, arguing about how big the possible changes in the timeline due to the actions of certain single persons in the US or Britain or Germany, etc, could or would be, and often at the same time assuming that changing the fates of entire small nations would cause just negligible changes in world history. Keeping Finland as a part of Russia post-1917 would have major implications not only for Finland or the Nordic and Baltic areas, but also for Russia itself. And if Russia changes significantly, that would mean that world history in the last century would have seen major changes from the OTL in general. There is, for example, a high possibility that WWII would have been butterflied away as we know it, given that the historical changes needed would have started in mid-1917 at the latest and would have compounded from there. This world would have seen quite different 20s and 30s in Europe already.