What if Evans won the running mate ballot in 1896

What if in 1896 H. Clay Evans had won the Republican ballot for VP? Would McKinley have till won? Would he have still been assassinated? What would have happened to Rooselvelt without Hobarts death as VP? OR more interestingly what would have happened to the Progressive movement?
 
Well assuming that McKinley still wins 1896, and I see no reason he wouldn't, then I don't think things change too much. Even without Hobart's death, Teddy's enough of a nuisance in New York that he'll get stuck on the ticket in 1900. They could do this pretty easily, I believe, because changing VPs in the 19th century wasn't as big a deal as it would be in modern political campaigns.

So in my estimation, nothing particularly major changes except that Evans might end up in an ambassadorship earlier than OTL as consolation for losing his primo veep spot.
 
I'm not sure that the VP here would change. If Evans is in good health, it makes sense to give him a second term.
 
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