I don't have any grand statements to add to this question posed in the title. However, I would love to hear people's thoughts on the subject.
I agree with you all that the war would have been prolonged slightly longer, but how about the development of the computer? After all, Alan Turning's 'enigma decoding machine' was the very first computer. If the war was won without ever decoding Enigma, what do you think this would mean for the development of computers?
I agree with you all that the war would have been prolonged slightly longer, but how about the development of the computer? After all, Alan Turning's 'enigma decoding machine' was the very first computer. If the war was won without ever decoding Enigma, what do you think this would mean for the development of computers?
Correction: Turing's bombe was not a computer. The first "real" computer was Colossus, which was made to decode the more complex Lorenz cypher in 1943.
Anyway, which version of Enigma remains unbroken? Maybe Germany could adopt a version of the naval Enigma (one of the toughest to break IRRC) for general use?
Largest effect is the Allies better develop their other information sources. There are several examples of major Allied setbacks because one senior intel officer or another became too dependent on the ULTRA intel messages and neglected boiler plate items like PoW interrogation, signals analysis, battlefield reconissance, air recon/photo. The USSR was in this position. Not having acess to enigma encrypted messages the Red Army & others had to make more efficient use of other intel methods.
Crete was lost despite quite detailed Ultra intercepts (and the bravery of the FJs).
I once heard/read/some ones uncles dog told me that the Commander on Crete went out of his way to not react to events so as to not tip off the Germans that he had Ultra.
Crete was lost despite quite detailed Ultra intercepts (and the bravery of the FJs).
I once heard/read/some ones uncles dog told me that the Commander on Crete went out of his way to not react to events so as to not tip off the Germans that he had Ultra.
The Imitation Game would never have been made. Sorry I just had to throw it out there![]()
I don't have any grand statements to add to this question posed in the title. However, I would love to hear people's thoughts on the subject.
ULTRA (that is, consistent Allied access to German SIGINT) had effects as early as the Battle of France. ULTRA showed the extent of the German victory before the Allies could see it for themselves; it's been said that this convinced Churchill and the British high command to give up on France.
Later on - ULTRA was useful in the Battle of Britain; in effect, the RAF was CC'd on the daily strength reports from the Luftwaffe bases in France. When SEELOWE was cancelled, ULTRA picked it up. ULTRA figured in the Battle of the Beams.
In the Battle of the Atlantic: the "first happy time" for the U-boats ended in mid-1941 when the British cracked naval Enigma. This allowed them to evade U-boat scouting lines and reduced losses in late 1941 by at least a million tons. In early 1942, the Germans adopted a new Enigma for U-boats, and losses jumped to devastating levels. But even in this period, the Allies had had ULTRA from the U-boat training command and the main German navy, so they knew about all new U-boats launched and commissioned, and about all U-boats entering or leaving the Biscay bases.
In intelligence work: ULTRA reported the communications of Abwehr outstations to Berlin. Much of this traffic dealt with the agents in Britain which the British had under control. The British were thus able to adjust their manipulation of the controlled agents for maximum credibility with the Germans, and could be certain no other agents were loose.
In the Mediterranean: ULTRA greatly enhanced the ability of Allied forces to intercept and destroy Axis shipping to North Africa. It also CC'd the Allies on the Axis strength and supply reports.
It is not easy to pin down specific consequences of ULTRA in land warfare. But it is clear that there was an effect, because at any given time, it provided the Allied commanders with an accurate and reliable picture of German strength and readiness. Allied commanders were thus able to plan bold operations in confidence.
Ultra intelligence fully revealed the preparations for Operation Barbarossa, the German invasion of the USSR. Although this information was passed to the Soviet government, Stalin refused to believe it.[44] The information did, however, help British planning, knowing that substantial German forces were to be deployed to the East.
- Ultra intelligence considerably aided the British Army's Operation Compass victory over the much larger Italian army in Libya in December 1940 – February 1941.[41]
- Ultra intelligence greatly aided the Royal Navy's victory over the Italian navy in the Battle of Cape Matapan in March 1941.[42]
- Ultra contributed very significantly to the monitoring of German developments at Peenemünde and the collection of V-1 and V-2 Intelligence from 1942 onwards.[52]
- Ultra contributed to Montgomery's victory at the Battle of Alam el Halfa by providing warning of Rommel's planned attack.
- Ultra also contributed to the success of Montgomery's offensive in the Second Battle of El Alamein, by providing him (before the battle) with a complete picture of Axis forces, and (during the battle) with Rommel's own action reports to Germany.
- Ultra provided evidence that the Allied landings in French North Africa (Operation Torch) were not anticipated.[53]
- A JN-25 decrypt of 14 April 1943 provided details of Admiral Yamamoto's forthcoming visit to Balalae Island, and on 18 April his aircraft was shot down, killing this man who was regarded as irreplaceable.[54]
- The part played by Ultra intelligence in the preparation for the Allied invasion of Sicily was of unprecedented importance. It provided information as to where the enemy's forces were strongest and that the elaborate strategic deceptions had convinced Hitler and the German high command.[55]
- The success of the Battle of North Cape, in which HMS Duke of York sank the German battleship Scharnhorst, was entirely built on prompt deciphering of German naval signals.[56]
- Both Enigma and Tunny decrypts showed Germany had been taken in by Operation Bodyguard, the deception operation to protect Operation Overlord. They revealed the Germans did not anticipate the Normandy landings and even after D-Day still believed Normandy was only a feint, with the main invasion to be in the Pas de Calais.[57][58]
- It assisted greatly in Operation Cobra.
- It warned of the major German counterattack at Mortain, and allowed the Allies to surround the forces at Falaise.
- During the Allied advance to Germany, Ultra often provided detailed tactical information, and showed how Hitler ignored the advice of his generals and insisted on German troops fighting in place 'to the last man'.[59]
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How much of the code-breaking assistance in the Med (e.g. troop convoys avoiding the Italian fleet) was Ultra, and how much Italian codes?
Correction: Turing's bombe was not a computer. The first "real" computer was Colossus, which was made to decode the more complex Lorenz cypher in 1943.
Anyway, which version of Enigma remains unbroken? Maybe Germany could adopt a version of the naval Enigma (one of the toughest to break IRRC) for general use?