What if Engelbert Dolfuss survives his second assasination attempt?

In 1934 Engelbert Dolfuss was assassinated in Vienna by Austrian National-Socialists, what if he survives, and presumably survives any further assassination attempts by Nazis? I do not see him caving to Munich as his successor did. Would he prepare to fight a military conflict before giving into Germany? Would further Italian support for the Austrian regime allow the Austrian Nazi movement to be destroyed in the same manner as the Austrian Socialists-Communists?
 
Thank you! Often much is made for the potential of Czech resistance (which is something I certainly indulge in myself) but I've rarely heard much of potential Austrian resistance.
I think its because most people assume that Austria was unanimously in favour of Anschluss because there was no diplomatic crisis over the matter as there was with the Sudetenland.
 
I think its because most people assume that Austria was unanimously in favour of Anschluss because there was no diplomatic crisis over the matter as there was with the Sudetenland.
Do you believe that Dolfuss would have chosen military resistance? I think he's more likely to choose it rather than Kurt Schuschnigg.
 
The sad part is that I doubt Dolfuß was any more willing than Schuschnigg to collaborate with the Leftists they had been suppressing for several years now. Thr Communists were one of the few anti-Anschluss factions in Austrian politics and since Hitler's takeover, the SDs had largely abandonned it.

Had there been no Civil War, Austria could've been in a significantly better position than OTL to resist the Nazis. Key word being could. The years leading to the civil war were quite unstable, after all.
 
The sad part is that I doubt Dolfuß was any more willing than Schuschnigg to collaborate with the Leftists they had been suppressing for several years now. Thr Communists were one of the few anti-Anschluss factions in Austrian politics and since Hitler's takeover, the SDs had largely abandonned it.

Had there been no Civil War, Austria could've been in a significantly better position than OTL to resist the Nazis. Key word being could. The years leading to the civil war were quite unstable, after all.

Had Dolfuß aligned with communists I think that the Anschluß would have been easier and the Nazis would have had more support than OTL. The VF was still very popular even as late as 1938. There was no need to support the left and invite them to government, in war socialists would fight against the third Reich, politically represented or not.

One of the main points of the Austrian plan was opposition within the Wehrmacht to an armed invasion of Austria. Bringing the communists into government would certainly not encourage German officers to stand up to the NSDAP, nor would it encourage Italian intervention.

One of the main complaints of the Austrian high command was lack of funds, if Dolfuß survives perhaps he raises the military budget. Thus could have a large effect on Austrian military effectiveness and really make a meaningful resistance against the Third Reich much more likely. More anti tank guns and fighter aircraft could really make a difference. Historically they had superior AT guns and not an insignificant amount more certainly won't hurt. According the paper linked by @SealTheRealDeal (which was a very good read) the Austrian air force had around 70 fighter aircraft. The author of that paper remarks that that would be sufficient for protecting certain military targets like airbases but would be unable to protect civilian areas, thankfully it would be politically unfeasible for Hitler to bomb Vienna in my estimation.

All in all assuming a significant increase in funding Austria could probably hold for about 5 days. The most significant element is ammunition, which would obviously necessary. I imagine the outcome of the conflict relies totally on Mussolini. If he choses to let Austria fall, it falls. If he acts it could really change things up. Italian troops coming through the Alpine passes to assist the Austrians would certainly shift the war to the Austrian side, Italian air craft would be an important element of this though so close to German air fields I don't think air superiority it going to the Austrians any time soon.

I know of the Oster conspiracy, could a similar plan be executed earlier in '38 if Germany find itself at war with Italy and Austria? I imagine war two fascist nations including their Germanic brothers in Austria would prove far more offensive to the average Wehrmacht officer than an invasion of Czechoslovakia and a potential allied intervention.
 
Thr Communists were one of the few anti-Anschluss factions in Austrian politics and since Hitler's takeover, the SDs had largely abandonned it.
Not sure how relevant the number of anti-Anschluss factions is, given that the militantly anti-Anschluss VF had been the dominant force in Austria ever since 1934.
 
All in all assuming a significant increase in funding Austria could probably hold for about 5 days.

Only that long? The paper seemed to say a roughly equivalent number of invaders and defenders at the beginning, and they're falling back into mountainous terrain.
 
Not sure how relevant the number of anti-Anschluss factions is, given that the militantly anti-Anschluss VF had been the dominant force in Austria ever since 1934.
The problem isn't that the government's official policy is anti-anschluss, but that the majority of Austrians were likely (IMO) apathetic towards it and parts of the military and paramilitary were previously or actively Pan-german.

My point was, while not necessary as thezerech pointed out, that the moderate left, formerly a major faction driven underground and repressed, could have helped keep Austria united under the threat of Nazi invasion. In other words, the anti-Anschluss factions were divided and that weakened Austria's potential resistance and helped the Nazis in the long run as they easily hunted the opposition down after 1938.
 
In 1934 Engelbert Dolfuss was assassinated in Vienna by Austrian National-Socialists, what if he survives, and presumably survives any further assassination attempts by Nazis? I do not see him caving to Munich as his successor did. Would he prepare to fight a military conflict before giving into Germany? Would further Italian support for the Austrian regime allow the Austrian Nazi movement to be destroyed in the same manner as the Austrian Socialists-Communists?
Okay. There was a lot of Italian support for Austrian independance - until Abyssinia. Afterwards Italy moved closer to Germany, the buffer state Austria became less important and limited the diplomatic options of Austria. Italian support isn't tied to Dollfuß or Schuschnigg. The Nazis in Austria were from 34 on either so secretly, in prison or in Germany. I doubt the Austrians would allow Italian forces onto their soil in support of this, leading to no noticable difference in that.
Military preparations were difficult. Some parts of the army were suspect of german-nationalist sympaties, the economy still hasn't recovered since the Great War, and the Treaty of Saint-Germain placed certain limitations on them. Not that those limitations were that significant, there was not enough money to expand the army to those limits anyway.
Caving to Munich? Not sure what you imply there, the Sudentenland crisis was later. IIRC the meetings between Schuschnigg and Hitler were in Berchtesgaden and Hitler knew he had Schuschnigg cornered, especially economical. Dollfuß wouldn't have more wiggle room.

Dolfuss was much more familiar with the militias, so it's safe to say he'd be more willing to do so than Schuschnigg.
False. While Schuschnigg was more of an academic in appearance and presentation he himself founded on of the militas, the Ostmärkische Sturmscharen. He'd have similar levels of familiarity with the Heimwehren (plural, because a singular Heimwehr didn't really exist) as Dollfuß himself.

The sad part is that I doubt Dolfuß was any more willing than Schuschnigg to collaborate with the Leftists they had been suppressing for several years now. Thr Communists were one of the few anti-Anschluss factions in Austrian politics and since Hitler's takeover, the SDs had largely abandonned it.

Had there been no Civil War, Austria could've been in a significantly better position than OTL to resist the Nazis. Key word being could. The years leading to the civil war were quite unstable, after all.
Key word could. It's probably pretty unlikely that no civil war would have made that much of a difference.
Also the communists were a fringe group. Unlike Germany for example they were not represented in Parliament, usually getting around half a percent of the votes. True the SP were further left than most of their European counterparts, but not exactly communists. The SP and the Nazis, now that is a very complex topic. Let's just say you can't say they'd have resisted any more than the VF did.

The problem isn't that the government's official policy is anti-anschluss, but that the majority of Austrians were likely (IMO) apathetic towards it and parts of the military and paramilitary were previously or actively Pan-german.

My point was, while not necessary as thezerech pointed out, that the moderate left, formerly a major faction driven underground and repressed, could have helped keep Austria united under the threat of Nazi invasion. In other words, the anti-Anschluss factions were divided and that weakened Austria's potential resistance and helped the Nazis in the long run as they easily hunted the opposition down after 1938.
The moderate left as you call them neither were unified in a anti-Anschluss sentiment nor would they have been able to form a stable majority or coalition in parliement if one looks at the trends of the time.
Would a democratic Austria have better chances to preserve indipendence than an Autoritharian? I very much doubt it. They'd have even less support from the Heimwehren and Italy to start with. There might have been some more rethoric decrying the annexation, unlike the single voice OTL (I forgot who, some South American country IIRC), but I doubt anyone would ahve intervened. Maybe UK and France would have decided on a red line sooner?
 
False. While Schuschnigg was more of an academic in appearance and presentation he himself founded on of the militas, the Ostmärkische Sturmscharen. He'd have similar levels of familiarity with the Heimwehren (plural, because a singular Heimwehr didn't really exist) as Dollfuß himself.
Interesting, did not know that.
 
Interesting, did not know that.
On second thought, co-founder is probably more accurate.
The Sturmscharen did undergo something of an transformation, the original founding intent wasn't a paramilitary organisation, but another catholic youth and young adult organisation to supplement those already existing, more on a cultural and community level. Various plans for "military fitness" were however included from the start. Soon after founding however, very much under Schuschniggs leadership, the Strumscharen were then repurposed as a paramilitary counterpart to the increasingly seen as unreliable Heimwehren - kinda ironic when you look at developments a couple years further down the line. They were organised in cell structures, with a strong student presence and expected to drill at least once a week. Not that their actual combat effectiveness - Civil War and all that - turned out to be all that good. Member wise they also never really got that big, some 15.000 or so, and therefore they never got the attention the "big" paramilitary organisations of the time in Austria received.
 
Key word could. It's probably pretty unlikely that no civil war would have made that much of a difference.
Also the communists were a fringe group. Unlike Germany for example they were not represented in Parliament, usually getting around half a percent of the votes. True the SP were further left than most of their European counterparts, but not exactly communists. The SP and the Nazis, now that is a very complex topic. Let's just say you can't say they'd have resisted any more than the VF did.


The moderate left as you call them neither were unified in a anti-Anschluss sentiment nor would they have been able to form a stable majority or coalition in parliement if one looks at the trends of the time.
Would a democratic Austria have better chances to preserve indipendence than an Autoritharian? I very much doubt it. They'd have even less support from the Heimwehren and Italy to start with. There might have been some more rethoric decrying the annexation, unlike the single voice OTL (I forgot who, some South American country IIRC), but I doubt anyone would ahve intervened. Maybe UK and France would have decided on a red line sooner?

I honestly just mentionned the Communists because other than the Monarchists, whom were fringe as well as a political bloc and instead spread around the VF, they were one of the few unquestionably and sometimes vocally anti-Anschluss.

Otherwise yeah, you're mostly right. The SP were AFAIK relatively unified against the Nazis; i.e. they weren't against the idea of Anschluss, but they sure didn't want it under the Nazis. Democratic Austria definitely wouldn't have gotten support from Italy (even if that was meaningless in hindsight, it still meant a lot at the time) and I would argue that France and the UK still wouldn't give a shit. Austria was a defeated nation and there was no interest in it from the west.

Of course we can't say whether or not X would have resisted better, but discussing the possibilities is the whole point of this, after all.
 
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