What if Emperor Joseph II of HRE/Austria lives 5 more years

raharris1973

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We got nuthin'?

I was expecting to see people say he'd drive the Austrians to revolution with his unpopular top-down reforms.

For my part, I think one consequence might have been Austria keeping the Ottoman lands it occupied at his death, Bosnia and Serbia, that his successor, Leopold, forfeit back to the Ottomans.
 
If the war continues, Austrian debt increases, Prussian intervention becomes more and more likely (so no guarantee of Austrian victory or any territorial gains at all), Belgians starting revolting due to the military focus elsewhere, Hungarian nobles are revolting, etc. Joseph's policies weren't popular and the war only sours popular opinion further. Him continuing his course and staying in the Balkan bog only worsens Austria's position in the long run (come French Revolutionary Wars, the Habsburgs will have to capitulate sooner than they did OTL due to dissent and debt. France does better in the war, perhaps to the point that Napoleon doesn't come into prominence in Italy? Anyways, Austria's stability is inversely proportional to Joseph's lifespan, especially with the Coalition Wars coming up).

Shame too, since his heart was in the right place and some of his reforms would've been quite helpful to Austria down the line. Now, if he had just been a bit less forceful and centralizing, perhaps...but just giving him 5 years extra when he's already alienated the whole nation only hurts everyone down the line.
 
If the war continues, Austrian debt increases, Prussian intervention becomes more and more likely (so no guarantee of Austrian victory or any territorial gains at all), Belgians starting revolting due to the military focus elsewhere, Hungarian nobles are revolting, etc. Joseph's policies weren't popular and the war only sours popular opinion further. Him continuing his course and staying in the Balkan bog only worsens Austria's position in the long run (come French Revolutionary Wars, the Habsburgs will have to capitulate sooner than they did OTL due to dissent and debt. France does better in the war, perhaps to the point that Napoleon doesn't come into prominence in Italy? Anyways, Austria's stability is inversely proportional to Joseph's lifespan, especially with the Coalition Wars coming up).

Shame too, since his heart was in the right place and some of his reforms would've been quite helpful to Austria down the line. Now, if he had just been a bit less forceful and centralizing, perhaps...but just giving him 5 years extra when he's already alienated the whole nation only hurts everyone down the line.
To my knowledge,Prussia was also in a state of decline in Frederick the Great's latter years,especially into Frederick William II's reign.
 

raharris1973

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I've heard similar views of Prussia as a paper tiger at this time:

"Prussian army of this period was a deteriorating
institution living by the memories of the Old Fritz with the obsolete tactics
and no good generals The Austrians, IIRC, still have Laudon "operational" and it
was proven later by Suvorov's Italian Campaign (and by the 2nd Ottoman War)
that when led properly, they could perform quite well...

the Austrians were not alone [they were allied with the Russians]and Prussia of FWII was hardly capable to fight against this combination with any
chance of success. The Russians had some of the best generals of the
time (Rumiantsev and Suvorov) and their tactics was quite close to what later
became Nappy's trademark (with less effective usage of the field artillery,
of course).

On the other hand, numerically, the Prussian army was the third largest in Europe, which could count for something.
 
I've heard similar views of Prussia as a paper tiger at this time:

"Prussian army of this period was a deteriorating
institution living by the memories of the Old Fritz with the obsolete tactics
and no good generals The Austrians, IIRC, still have Laudon "operational" and it
was proven later by Suvorov's Italian Campaign (and by the 2nd Ottoman War)
that when led properly, they could perform quite well...

the Austrians were not alone [they were allied with the Russians]and Prussia of FWII was hardly capable to fight against this combination with any
chance of success. The Russians had some of the best generals of the
time (Rumiantsev and Suvorov) and their tactics was quite close to what later
became Nappy's trademark (with less effective usage of the field artillery,
of course).

On the other hand, numerically, the Prussian army was the third largest in Europe, which could count for something.
The way I see it,Prussia's gonna have a far more difficult time replacing that army than Austria.The Austrians simply have far more resources than Prussia.
 
I don't think you can take it for granted that Russia would aid Austria against Prussia, the Austro-Russian alliance was fragile and aimed at the Ottomans. Russia was still friendly with Prussia and was recently allied with them (and would soon again become a close ally). Austria was diplomatically pretty isolated at the time, even France was cold to their Balkan adventure.

The way I see it,Prussia's gonna have a far more difficult time replacing that army than Austria.The Austrians simply have far more resources than Prussia.
It's tough to use those resources when much of your realm is on the verge of rebellion. Joseph II's Austria was not in a state to handle much more stress.
 
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