What if? Disaster at Dunkirk

Deleted member 1487

@wiking
Well, that leaves us then with what we might contemplate, what Hitler wrote 10 years and even more before the time in question here.
... and on rather "general" terms ... well away from the at that time present situation "on the ground" of battle.
No hints, if his proposals were threatening, what Halifax wanted to see preserved : independance ... and at least the possibility to rearm.

About the book you mentioned.
Tbh, all that revolves about this ominous Hess-flight I regard as at best highly questionable. And this "review" you cite speaks - to my taste - too much of "secret cover ups by the goverment" and the like, as that there could be any "substantial" info about Hess intentions, motives and possible ... "gifts", he might have had ib his luggage.
AFAIK there is was no actual terms, as Hitler wanted the Brits to approach him first so they would work things out in secret. The only terms that were potentially offered was the supposed Hess offer. As the details of what was found on Hess is apparently still classified we don't know for sure either way if there was a legit offer made for peace and what the specific terms were. So we are operating on assumptions as you say, informed by a variety of sources that weren't exactly from around that period on the German side, though we do know what the War Cabinet, Churchill, and Halifax were willing to accept. I'm inclined to believe that Hitler didn't want colonies outside of Europe because of what his plans were for colonization inside Europe and his repeatedly expressed desire for an alliance with Britain, which would preclude reparations and military restrictions.
 
So assuming peace doesn't happen for one reason or another. What are the long term military effects. It would seem minimal.

In England you have the Canadian Corps which is in Kent just the same to deal with invasion or raid.
It seems in the mid east you had Australians, Indians, South Africans, Free French etc. that wouldn't be affected, so that would go pretty much OTL.

Perhaps a smaller army invading France in 1944 or reduced build up in Burma.
 

Deleted member 1487

So assuming peace doesn't happen for one reason or another. What are the long term military effects. It would seem minimal.

In England you have the Canadian Corps which is in Kent just the same to deal with invasion or raid.
It seems in the mid east you had Australians, Indians, South Africans, Free French etc. that wouldn't be affected, so that would go pretty much OTL.

Perhaps a smaller army invading France in 1944 or reduced build up in Burma.
There was the 1st Canadian division, which wasn't even combat ready:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1st_Canadian_Division#Second_World_War_.281939.E2.80.931945.29
No Corps to speak of. There wouldn't be reinforcements to Africa at all, in fact Britain out of panic might pull in forces that were sent to Africa and the Middle East to defend Britain instead. Certainly a smaller army going forward and the loss of major commanders like Monty and a ton of senior successful officers.
 
There was the 1st Canadian division, which wasn't even combat ready:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1st_Canadian_Division#Second_World_War_.281939.E2.80.931945.29
No Corps to speak of. There wouldn't be reinforcements to Africa at all, in fact Britain out of panic might pull in forces that were sent to Africa and the Middle East to defend Britain instead. Certainly a smaller army going forward and the loss of major commanders like Monty and a ton of senior successful officers.

Britain isn't going to panic and pull in the Middle East forces any more than they did in OTL, as they were reading the Germans mail.
As to commanders, even with the most asb-like successful destruction of the BEF, senior and critical officers will be flown out at night to provide leadership for the new divisions forming at home.Or are the British suddenly acting like 'die in a samurai charge' Japanese all of a sudden?
 
You would think Churchill would send the armor to Egypt just the same for Compass. Egypt is just too important. At some point something has to be conserved. I wonder if pushing for a British force in Greece like our TL won't happen or Tobruk gets evacuated in 1941. OR the British just keep England weaker throughout the war.
 

Deleted member 1487

Britain isn't going to panic and pull in the Middle East forces any more than they did in OTL, as they were reading the Germans mail.
As to commanders, even with the most asb-like successful destruction of the BEF, senior and critical officers will be flown out at night to provide leadership for the new divisions forming at home.Or are the British suddenly acting like 'die in a samurai charge' Japanese all of a sudden?
They certainly aren't sending reinforcements and weren't reading German signals traffics with any sort of regularity:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptanalysis_of_the_Enigma#British_bombe
They had one pre-production Bombe prior to August.
German army traffic wasn't broken until 1941. It wasn't reliably broken until 1942, but even then with significant delay. Naval Engima wasn't at all broke by summer 1940 and it took until a commando raid in March 1941 to capture the necessary code books to start breaking in. Lorenz traffic wasn't broken until 1942.
I don't know where you think this shuttle traffic is going to happen from for all these officers. I'm sure the very top commanders in charge of the BEF would be flown out, but division commanders like Monty aren't getting out in time.

You would think Churchill would send the armor to Egypt just the same for Compass. Egypt is just too important. At some point something has to be conserved. I wonder if pushing for a British force in Greece like our TL won't happen or Tobruk gets evacuated in 1941. OR the British just keep England weaker throughout the war.
Britain was more important than Egypt. The Italians aren't attacking until September and the situation at home is far too critical to let any units go given the likely state of public morale. Churchill and the War Cabinet might be able to handle losing the BEF, but the public has invasion fever, which is only enhanced by having lost their army, means any transfers out is politically untenable. Greece probably cannot happen either. Toburk could end up getting evacuated too.
 
Reinforcement convoys to Egypt:
http://www.naval-history.net/xAH-WSConvoys03-1940.htm

many sailed in August, with the important tank convoy arriving in late September. Lets say these are delayed 2 to 3 months (by late October - November any invasion panic would be over).

Operation compass would be delayed. Which means the Italian try to advance to Matruh sometime in December (which probably can only end badly for them, which probably triggers German reinforcement as OTL schedule). However by February 1941 the British should have everything is place to be able to lunch a major attack (perhaps reinforced with out commitments in Greece)

Butterflies are heavy here, the British might not be any worse off, might be better off.
Germans are better off if British don't commit as much to Greece/Crete and are thus better off for Barbarossa.
 
Greece seems likely to be butterflied, if nothing else.

Churchill would not be in a position to commit anything more than token assistance to the Greeks.
 

Deleted member 1487

Greece seems likely to be butterflied, if nothing else.

Churchill would not be in a position to commit anything more than token assistance to the Greeks.
That may well change the course of the war the East if the Germans can keep their commitment to the Balkans limited to Yugoslavia and stay out of Greece, while the Brits stay out as well.
 
Good question of how peace would go down after the disaster at Dunkirk. I believe that the peace will the lighter than described by Alternate_History_Buff since as noted Britain is down but not out with the RN and RAF still being strong

Britain allows Germany to keep Denmark, Poland, Netherlands, Luxemburg, A-L, and Flanders

France becomes a puppet of Germany, basically a Vichy government from Paris, no German occupation troops
Norway becomes a puppet. Wallonia becomes another puppet or it is simply given to the Vichy like French to rule. Germany is granted transit rights.

Trade between the nations is re-established. Germany has free hand to expand east and even to Switzerland if it desires to split Switzerland between Germany, Italy and the French government.

Italy gets nothing from Britain, but does get a little from the French Riviera, Tunisia and Djibouti from France as well as its prior East Africa possessions of Ethiopia and Italian Somaliland

Germany makes guarantee to leave Greece a British protectorate and Britain yields a free hand to Germany in Yugoslavia if desired.

Spain may have more interest in allying with Germany against Soviets ITTL. Spain does not get Gibraltar from Britain, but does obtain rest of Morocco and Western Sahara

With trade resumed, Hitler prepares for Soviet Union next in 1941 .....
 
That may well change the course of the war the East if the Germans can keep their commitment to the Balkans limited to Yugoslavia and stay out of Greece, while the Brits stay out as well.

Bit tricky, that.

Hitler might feel compelled to go in anyway, to forestall any British attempts to intervene if the Greeks are allowed to hang on in their resistance to the Italians.

Or, he might compromise by sending in a reduced force structure to aid the Italians.

OTOH, a British loss of most of the BEF, with the restrained British military posture that results, might well butterfly away the Yugoslav coup anyway. Britain will be seen as a possible winner by fewer Yugoslav officers and leaders.
 

Deleted member 1487

Bit tricky, that.

Hitler might feel compelled to go in anyway, to forestall any British attempts to intervene if the Greeks are allowed to hang on in their resistance to the Italians.

Or, he might compromise by sending in a reduced force structure to aid the Italians.

OTOH, a British loss of most of the BEF, with the restrained British military posture that results, might well butterfly away the Yugoslav coup anyway. Britain will be seen as a possible winner by fewer Yugoslav officers and leaders.
IIRC the only reason he went in at all after trying to stay out was the Brits moved into Crete quickly after the start of the Italian invasion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battl..._decision_to_attack_and_British_aid_to_Greece
Hitler intervened on 4 November 1940, four days after British troops arrived at Crete and Lemnos. Although Greece was neutral until the Italian invasion, the British troops that were sent as defensive aid created the possibility of a frontier to the German southern flank. He ordered his Army General Staff to attack Northern Greece from bases in Romania and Bulgaria in support of his master plan to deprive the British of Mediterranean bases.[40][22]
If the Brits don't garrison Crete and the Greeks don't agree to provide the Brits with bases, then likely Hitler doesn't get involved. He didn't appreciate that Mussolini did that and then failed, but then if the Brits don't intervene, then without the 5th Cretan division and with the Brits in a worse position in Egypt due to no/limited support from Britain prior to winter, then the Greeks might well be beaten by the Italians eventually by Spring.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th_Airmobile_Brigade_(Greece)
With the arrival of British troops that took over the defense of the island in late 1940, the division was transferred to the Albanian front where it participated in the January–February offensives against the Italians, distinguishing itself in the Capture of Klisura Pass and in the Battle of Trebeshina. On January 29, 1941 the 14th Infantry Regiment under Colonel Nikolaos Spendos advanced through heavy blizzards to take the 1,923 meter Mount Trebeshinë, which had been abandoned by the Italians. After reinforcing defensive positions, they met consecutive Italian counter-attacks throughout the night and suffered considerable casualties to hold the position. The 11th Rifle Company, which had been tasked with holding the peak, saw particularly heavy fighting. Its commander, Captain Artemios Kourtessis, lost both his legs in the battle, while 2nd Lieutenant Hesiod Tsingos was awarded the Medal of Valour in Gold for conspicuous gallantry.

The division remained in the front until the Greek withdrawal from Albania in the face of the German invasion of Greece in April. The division retreated to the Peloponnese, where it dissolved itself in May 1941, as there was no way for it to reach Crete.[3] However, three battalions that had remained in Crete after the rest of the division was transferred to the mainland participated in the subsequent Battle of Crete.

Interesting point about the Yugoslav situation; likely if the coupists view the Brits as too weak to support them they might well not act.
 
The Germans don't have to enter Dunkirk in order to end any attempt of evacuation. Geting within 24 km with several batteries of 15 cm-kanone 18 will end the escape. No ship will try to load while under artillery fire. And no soldier is going to stand around waiting for pick up on the beach or dockside under such conditions.

That means that the positions the 8 Panzer held on the 24th near Grevelingen are already the end if they had been reinforced by some field artillery with range.

And evacuating from Oostende could be blocked much the same way with guns ranging from the other side of Brugge.

And for fighting their way south that means busting through 8 panzer & 4 motorized divisions in defensive positions. They would have better luck trying for Berlin.

I would have to agree that Churchill would be out no way that he survives a vote of confidence. And it would not even take Halifax and the other conservative ministers, the back benchers alone would have done him in.

At which point the Middle East would all go up in flames. Quickly followed by the worst nightmare of any British official, India revolting. You could also see the Japanese pulling an Indo-China on Hong Kong and Borneo.

This would make any reasonable peace offer something the Brits would jump at. I am thinking the following terms.
  1. Transfer of all capital ships and bombers to India for 10 years(Brits will want to do this any way to smack down the revolt).
  2. Money and Gold with the Bank of England's gold reserves in Berlin as surety of payment.
    1. Repayment of the British Versailles Reparations.
    2. Reparations for damages done during the current conflict.
  3. Return of any and all German POW's.
  4. Return of all interned civilians and ships.
  5. Return of the Dutch and Norwegian Royals and Government.(also any gold from the national banks)
  6. Return of British POW's and civilians.
  7. Approval for the Neu-Europa arrangements:
    1. Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway with internal "independance" including their colonies but considered part of Germany's sphere of influence.
    2. Borders of 1914 plus Luxembourg and a sliver of France basically Belfort, Epinal, Nancy and Briey.
    3. DMZ East of the Meuze and Saone.
    4. Maybe a German naval and air base near St.Nazaire.(I doubt this one but maybe the Nazi's can get away with it.)
  8. For the colonies the following:
    1. South West Africa and the pacific possessions stay British.
    2. Transfer of the French Suez shares to Germany.
    3. Return of Togo, Kameroon, and Öst-Afrika(including Zanzibar and the coastal islands)
And if the Italians or Japanese want their piece of cake they can fight their own war for it:closedtongue:. But in reality no real british possessions or damages to their strategic interests.
 
I think the maximum that Germany can extort from the British is a white peace with payments for damage + reparation, resume of commerce and recognition of German hegemony on continental europe, alias puppet government as thet are now, no colonies, no disarmament, no humiliation and so on, they cannot force anything, the lenient they are the easiest is for the British parliament to bow to those requests. On the pther hand the French are going to get milked to death with full disarmament, and Versailles style treaty. This imho is the maximum the German can expect in a Dunkirk slaughter scenarios. As a side note Japan is going to have acces to DEI oil, so i think china is fucked because the Jap will not need to attack the USA to not starve. The USSR is going to get mauled and without any other actove front the German have a nice possibility to win the war in the east.
 
On the pther hand the French are going to get milked to death with full disarmament, and Versailles style treaty.

Nah, they are going to want the government somewhat popular meaning an armed force to maintain some colonies and to fight in the East with them. They are going to take a lot of what is not nailed down then put the French economy and a lot of troops to work helping their soon to be war in the East.

They are going to certainly tax the French economy and the French population just not quite in a written down ToV way. There will be no official limit on the the French armed forces, but certainly unofficial ones.
 
British would have collapsed and the war would have ended in Germany favor. My mother & uncles -who were there at the time- firmly believed that.

I have never really been able to convince them otherwise. To them the RN & RAF were so poorly matched to the task- as brave as they were. They believed Hitler was an idiot and Churchill saved them.
 
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