What if Denmark won the 2nd Schleswig War?

Sorry if this isn't how posts are done but I wanted to share this idea I came up with.

After winning the first Schleswig War Denmark saw that the threat from Germany was extremely large and so kept the Danevirke up to date with the latest artillery Denmark had available and kept a garrison there year round. In 1864 the German states lead by Prussia invaded Denmark in June and so the German Army started a siege of the Danevirke with 61,000 men and 160 guns where 4000 Danes held out for reinforcements from the north arrived. Whilst the army was fighting the government was having talk with their close Scandinavian friends for help expecting only supplies. In July of 1864 after a month of sieging the Danevirke a united Scandinavian army of 70,000 men arrived from Norway Sweden and the reinforcements from the newly called up reservists of the Danish army. After a week of bloody fighting the Combined Scandinavian Army beat back the German Army forcing the German government to sign a peace treaty with the terms of giving the Danish government 5 Million Danish Krone. With the Humiliation of defeat Bismarck, whose idea it was to invade Denmark, resigns his post in the government and lives out the rest of his life in absurdity. Because Bismarck was the main force behind the wars of German unification (the first of which was the 2nd Schleswig War) the rest, the Franco-Prussian war and the Austro-Prussian war, don’t occur. Whilst Prussia was in turmoil from the money she had to pay to Denmark the other Scandinavian Countries spurred by their victory and surge in cultural pride decide it is time to form a commonwealth of countries so that all Scandinavians are united and can help each other in whatever way they need. After 5 years the Prussian government is in debt and inflation was raising rapidly the people most of whom were affected by the war in some way decides that enough is enough and a revolution in Berlin starts because solders shot at and killed 10 striking workers in Konigsberg. The Austrians having seen the opportunity to become the dominate German state, since Prussia was falling apart, make an offer to all the other German states that they will protect them if they join their Country eventually forming the United German Federation. After 3 years of brutal fighting the people win and the Prussian Republic is born and asks to join the rest of the Germans in the UGF which they except. In 1880 after years of growth and prosperity in the Scandinavian Union they Declare war on Russia in order to help the Scandinavian Finns who had been fighting a Guerrilla war against Russia since the Scandinavian union formed. The war lasts 5 years and finally ends when the Combined Scandinavian Army along with the Finns marches into Moscow and Finland is made the 4th
commonwealth in the Scandinavian union.

Scandinavian Union Flag http://rarayn.deviantart.com/art/Scandinavian-Commonwealth-Flag-245314776

United German Federation Flag https://flagspot.net/images/d/de_naval.gif

Any feed back would be greatly appreciated and any ideas for another scenario would be great as well!
 
the problem with Dannevirke is that it was politicians that decided that they should be where the stand should be, while just about everyone with half a military brain considered it just about the worst place possible ... the best chance for Denmark was not to start the war in the first place.
 
I like the scenario, but a few things:

1) The Prussians were gung-ho for this war, and it is highly unlikely a single defeat would upset them too much (they pushed on after Mysunde historically) and would be unlikely to back out unless the Austrians got cold feet, which they very nearly did, they were much more content to occupy Holstein and call it a day. If the Austrians are defeated before the Dannevirke they probably don't fold to the pressure from von Wrangel to cross the Eider and will pause their armies there. The Prussians can't move on their own so it's likely they would then have to either re-organize their strategy, or the Great Powers would step in and call for a negotiated peace.

1b) Bismarck wouldn't resign over a loss in this, he held the trust of the Prussian King, he would lose face and some maneuvering in the Parliament, but would still be top dog for the foreseeable future.

2) Even if Prussia lost, there's no way they could be forced to pay an indemnity. The Danes would have to be outside Berlin!

3) Sweden-Norway would only have intervened with the backing of one or more of the Great Powers. London would not move without Paris, and Paris was reluctant to move at all. The only other wildcard is Russia, and if Russia backed Sweden then you'd see at most 20,000 men dispatched to help the Danes, and it would probably keep the idea of Scandinavianism alive.
 
Thanks for the feedback!

this is my first scenario I've came up with that i have written down and I've read one book on the subject so no where near an expert on the subject I just thought I would share my idea. first of all if the Prussians did lose again and did pull out of the war wouldn't the military have a major reorganization?
 
First of all, the Finns are actually not Scandinavian.

Second of all, Russia was successful in fostering a Finnish sense of nationalism to counteract Swedish claims to the area, a policy exemplified by Alexander II, known as the Good Tsar in Finland. If the Finns ever rose up against Russia, it would be to create an independent Finland, not to join Scandinavia.
 

Redbeard

Banned
Outright defeating Prussia and her Austrian and North German allies will not be possible for a nation the size of Denmark, but handing out a bloody nose would be, and might have Bismarck be seen not as the big statesman, but rather a silly hothead. That would probably have major influence on world history.

The problem with the Dannevirke is however, that in the cold winter it could be passed by over the frozen waters of the Slien. So to be effective you would need heavy fortifications for many more miles, I doubt it could be manned effectively by a realistic 1864 Danish army.

Conducting the "traditional" Danish operational plan and being slightly better prepared might do the work however.

1. The field artillery has a number of rifled guns.
2. The fortifications at Dybbøl are in a better state
3. The army takes up a defensive position at Dybbøl, but due to the better position and rifled artillery inflict much heavier losses on the attackers at the battle in April. With a bit of luck the attackers are repulsed but even if not, the Danish army can retreat in good order to the island of Als east of Dybbøl (Sønderborg). Apart from the heavy German losses this is pretty much OTL.
4. The major PoD is when the Germans try to cross the small strait to Als the superior Danish Navy interfere and inflict more heavy losses on the Germans. The Danish Army counterattack across the narrow strait and rout the German force. In OTL a very modern ironclad simply was in zig when it should have been in zag.
5. For the summer the Danish army takes up the Dannevirke position, but short of a frozen fiord the new German force sent against Denmark will have to attack frontally, but learn how modern warfare is when you are up against rifled artillery and lets say a few Montigny mitrailleuse or Gatlings having been bought recently.
6. At the London conference Prussia can show no results to defend, they are basically back to the starting line, and Scandinavian volunteers join the Danes in thousands. In Sweden and Norway there is popular support for officially joining the war, but the Swedish government (also ruling Norway in foreign affairs) stick to moral support and supplies.
7. After pressure from especially GB and Russia and semi-official Austrian comments about the hopeless state of the Prussian army and its leadership Prussia agree to a partition of Slesvig-Holstein. The part north of Dannevirke is included in the Kingdom of Denmark (Slesvig) while the part south of Dannevirke (Holstein) is included in Prussia. The Holsteiners are very disappointed, but nobody really like nationalist rebels.
8. Bismarck resigns and Prussia never seriously try to unite Germany, but Germany will fall back in the unhappy role of supplying battlefield for her neighbour's ambitions.
 

Don Quijote

Banned
I did a thread about this a few months back, but I wasn't quite so ambitious. The Danes won the Second Schleswig War, and went on to gain colonies in the East Indies, but didn't become part of a Scandinavian superpower.

On your TL, I think I have to agree with EnglishCanuck. Bismarck was a politician of the skill to move on after a failure, and not someone who gave in easily. Prussia was more efficient and well run than you give it credit for being, and a war with Austria acting as the aggressor could well end in a very decisive Austrian defeat. Moltke was a master of logistics, while the Austrians would have been at the end of their supply lines.

I hope we don't need to have the old debate about whether Finland is Scandinavian or Nordic - the difference is there, but it's not huge.
 
3. The army takes up a defensive position at Dybbøl, but due to the better position and rifled artillery inflict much heavier losses on the attackers at the battle in April. With a bit of luck the attackers are repulsed but even if not, the Danish army can retreat in good order to the island of Als east of Dybbøl (Sønderborg). Apart from the heavy German losses this is pretty much OTL.
4. The major PoD is when the Germans try to cross the small strait to Als the superior Danish Navy interfere and inflict more heavy losses on the Germans. The Danish Army counterattack across the narrow strait and rout the German force. In OTL a very modern ironclad simply was in zig when it should have been in zag.
5. For the summer the Danish army takes up the Dannevirke position,

If the battle zone is around Dybbol and Als then it is well north of the Dannevirke, how can the Danes take up a position there? Even if beaten off at Dybbol, the Prussians have no reason to retreat that far.
 
Thanks for the feedback!

this is my first scenario I've came up with that i have written down and I've read one book on the subject so no where near an expert on the subject I just thought I would share my idea. first of all if the Prussians did lose again and did pull out of the war wouldn't the military have a major reorganization?

Well it really depends on why the Prussians lose. The Dane's really can't do more than achieve stalemate so I can't see it being for a purely military reason. If Great Power politics makes them back out, expect them to be re-evaluating the position of their alliances on the continent or looking to woo other powers to their side.
 

Redbeard

Banned
If the battle zone is around Dybbol and Als then it is well north of the Dannevirke, how can the Danes take up a position there? Even if beaten off at Dybbol, the Prussians have no reason to retreat that far.

My ATL was that the initial Prussian army is routed at Als in spring of 1864 and retreats southwards until a new force can be sent northwards. By summer the position at Dannevirke is much more easy to defend, especially if the Danish army has rifled artillery and is reinforced with "gadgets" like Gatlings or Mitrailleuses.

But anyway the ATL will not change fundamentally if the Danish army resort to just being a flanking threat to any army marching up Jutland. In the 1st SH war this worked fine when the army crossed the strait between Funen and Jutland and from the fortress at Fredericia 6th of July 1849 attacked and defeated the Rebel army.

The position at Dybbøl was based on a similar option but the ramparts at Dybbøl were ill prepared and the army lacked rifled artillery.
 
My ATL was that the initial Prussian army is routed at Als in spring of 1864 and retreats southwards until a new force can be sent northwards. By summer the position at Dannevirke is much more easy to defend, especially if the Danish army has rifled artillery and is reinforced with "gadgets" like Gatlings or Mitrailleuses.

According to Wiki the Prussians had 11,000 men in action and a further 26,000 in reserve, against 5,000 Danes in the defences plus another 6,000 in reserve. So even if defeated, the Prussians have ample manpower to fall back on. The Danes could give then a bloody nose, but I don't see how they could follow it up any better than the Confederates could follow up First Bull Run.

Also, Dybbol was fought in early April, so Prussian reinforcements (if needed) will be on the scene long before Summer.

In any case, by the time the fighting reached Dybbol the Germans had all they really wanted - not only all of Holstein, but the German-speaking areas of Schleswig to boot. So they could write off the Danish areas of North Schleswig without much loss of face, and just stand on the defensive. Indeed, Iirc at one point they actually offered the Danes a border along the linguistic divide, but the Danes (still fantasising about Great Power intervention) turned it down.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
You can make the Danes much more able to win by improving their troop quality relative to the Prussians - one example would be for them to adopt a suitable breechloader design OTL trialled around the time, like the Westley-Richards. (That was considered in the early-mid 1860s by the British and ultimately rejected, but largely on reasons of cost since they'd only just done the Enfield rearmament a few years ago.)
That gives the Danes an advantage in rate of fire and accuracy (at long range), since the Dreyse was a fairly middling gun.

Another way to achieve this is to nerf the Prussians - they'd only just started their big programme of ranged shooting training, so they could not have done so instead.
 
Denmark maintaining possession of Holstein in 1864 is possible if
either their ASB allies nuke Berlin, Vienna and Frankfurt;
or the Danish government avoids the insanity of provoking the war.

Once the marching starts, Denmark gives up Holstein.
What the Danish government can still influence how much of Slesvig they have to give up. The Eider border cannot be maintained, either, IMO.

Here are some border proposals from OTL:
590px-Londonkonferencen_Gr%C3%A6nseforslag.png


Having a negotiated split along the French Proposal line (basically Husum-Gelting) with the south keeping the town and name of Schleswig, the ducal title & the old ties to Holstein and the bigger north getting directly incorporated into Denmark proper is IMO the best Copenhagen can hope for in any TL that does not involve the direct intervention of either France, Russia or the UK as Danish ally.

This border, possibly adapted to parish lines, would also fit with linguistic realities (even a bit unfavourable for the Low Germans):

556px-SprogforholdSlesvig.png
 
I hope we don't need to have the old debate about whether Finland is Scandinavian or Nordic - the difference is there, but it's not huge.

Linguistically, the difference is enormous. Finnish isn't even an Indo-European language.
 
Linguistically, the difference is enormous. Finnish isn't even an Indo-European language.

Yes and example of this is the number of cases in Finnish (15) to Swedish (Two I think but I have also heard three) .
Also though there are some loan words from Swedish ,Finnish has a totally different syntax and grammar which is unique and all its own .
 
Denmark maintaining possession of Holstein in 1864 is possible if
either their ASB allies nuke Berlin, Vienna and Frankfurt;
or the Danish government avoids the insanity of provoking the war.

Once the marching starts, Denmark gives up Holstein.
What the Danish government can still influence how much of Slesvig they have to give up. The Eider border cannot be maintained, either, IMO.

Here are some border proposals from OTL:
590px-Londonkonferencen_Gr%C3%A6nseforslag.png


Having a negotiated split along the French Proposal line (basically Husum-Gelting) with the south keeping the town and name of Schleswig, the ducal title & the old ties to Holstein and the bigger north getting directly incorporated into Denmark proper is IMO the best Copenhagen can hope for in any TL that does not involve the direct intervention of either France, Russia or the UK as Danish ally.

The French proposal is probably the best the Danes can hope for if they get pushed back to Dybbol. The English proposal is probably the most workable if they can manage to hold on the Eider until April somehow.

If the Prussians are unable to decisively defeat the Danes in a short period demanding the annexation of both duchies in a short period would be unworkable IMO, especially if the Austrians announced they were happy with simply seizing Holstein.
 

Redbeard

Banned
According to Wiki the Prussians had 11,000 men in action and a further 26,000 in reserve, against 5,000 Danes in the defences plus another 6,000 in reserve. So even if defeated, the Prussians have ample manpower to fall back on. The Danes could give then a bloody nose, but I don't see how they could follow it up any better than the Confederates could follow up First Bull Run.

Also, Dybbol was fought in early April, so Prussian reinforcements (if needed) will be on the scene long before Summer.

In any case, by the time the fighting reached Dybbol the Germans had all they really wanted - not only all of Holstein, but the German-speaking areas of Schleswig to boot. So they could write off the Danish areas of North Schleswig without much loss of face, and just stand on the defensive. Indeed, Iirc at one point they actually offered the Danes a border along the linguistic divide, but the Danes (still fantasising about Great Power intervention) turned it down.

At Als in late June 22.000 Prussians and 10.000 Danes were present and as an
an army crossing a water is just about as vulnerable as you can get I wouldn't exclude the possibility of the Prussians being routed, and IF it had happened; I guess the Danish Army for at least political reasons would take up the Dannevirke position again. Of course other forces would be in the area, also Danish, the Danish Field Army was 38.000 total and 22.000 was present at Dybbøl in Feburary.

Anyway it is not important for the ATL if the Danes after a Prussian defeat at Als go to Dannevirke or not, most important is that the Danish Army stays intact and have the last military success (repulsing the Prussians and inflicting heavy casualties). It was intact after OTL Dybbøl but not after the Prussians crossed the strait to Als and routed the forces present there in late June 64. That made all hopes of remaining a serious flanking threat meaningless and the Danish position in the negotiations hopeless. Remark that the international proposals about a border were from the period bewteen Dybbøl in April and Als in late June. Als is the important event, not Dybbøl.

If the Prussian attempt to cross to Als in a clear failure the Danish position internationally will be much better than OTL, and I guess something like the French proposal would be the outcome.
 
At Als in late June 22.000 Prussians and 10.000 Danes were present and as an
an army crossing a water is just about as vulnerable as you can get I wouldn't exclude the possibility of the Prussians being routed, and IF it had happened; I guess the Danish Army for at least political reasons would take up the Dannevirke position again. Of course other forces would be in the area, also Danish, the Danish Field Army was 38.000 total and 22.000 was present at Dybbøl in Feburary.

What do you mean by "routed"?

I can see the Prussians getting a bloody nose, but the only way they can be defeated is if they are caught in the middle of crossing, so that the Danes can, say, crush a third of them while the other two thirds are still on the other bank. But that still leaves them ample forces on the mainland. No doubt they'd have to call off their advance, but why would they need to retreat?

Anyway it is not important for the ATL if the Danes after a Prussian defeat at Als go to Dannevirke or not, most important is that the Danish Army stays intact and have the last military success (repulsing the Prussians and inflicting heavy casualties). It was intact after OTL Dybbøl but not after the Prussians crossed the strait to Als and routed the forces present there in late June 64. That made all hopes of remaining a serious flanking threat meaningless and the Danish position in the negotiations hopeless. Remark that the international proposals about a border were from the period bewteen Dybbøl in April and Als in late June. Als is the important event, not Dybbøl.
How do the Danes remain a flanking menace once the Austrian fleet arrives? They won't be able to cross from Als to the mainland once it is there.

In any case, if they can rout a Prussian invasion of Als from the mainland, surely the Prussians will be at least equally able to rout a Danish landing on the mainland from Als.


If the Prussian attempt to cross to Als in a clear failure the Danish position internationally will be much better than OTL, and I guess something like the French proposal would be the outcome.
Even OTL the Danes kept insisting on a border at the River Schlei, which would have given them about four fifths of Schleswig. It took the loss of Als to bring them to some sense of reality - and then of course it was too late.

If that was their attitude with the Austro-Prussians overrunning Jutland, what chance of getting any sense out of them if a victory at Als deludes them that they are still in with a chance.
 
What do you mean by "routed"?



How do the Danes remain a flanking menace once the Austrian fleet arrives? They won't be able to cross from Als to the mainland once it is there.

In any case, if they can rout a Prussian invasion of Als from the mainland, surely the Prussians will be at least equally able to rout a Danish landing on the mainland from Als.
The detachment that the Austrian fleet send towards Denmark was defeated by the danish fleet blockading the German Northsea coast and i don't see Austria sending their entire fleet such a long way. The Austrians seemed to be a rather reluctant in the war.

I do believe Redbeard's idea about a Prussian rout includes danish warships, something Prussia do not have access to
 
I just had an idea with the Prussian Army getting lured to Als, followed by the danish navy evacuating the army (and any civilians that they can get their hands on) and blockading the island so they'd have a hard time getting back where they're useful ... is that plausible in any shape or form?
 
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