The New Republic article "What Democrats Still Don't Get About George McGovern" crafts a nifty narrative about how the Democratic party essentially shifted towards the center after McGovern's defeat, while the Republicans shifted towards the further right after Goldwater's. Hence, different archconservative groups and figures consolidated power and mindshare within the GOP, and reaped in the success of the Reagan Revolution, while the New Democrats, the neoliberals, and the DLC were able to get the Clintons. It also argues that Nixon's victory in 1972 was inevitable,
So suppose McGovern's economic leftism continued to be upheld. Maybe Jimmy Carter still runs in 1976, albeit with both more populism and also attempts to implement some populist measure during his presidency. How does that go? Who do the Democrats nominate after Carter still gets beaten in 1980?
Any Democratic nominee was doomed in 1972. Modern election forecasting models based on variables like the state of the economy and the incumbent’s approval ratings make clear, in retrospect, that Nixon was destined to win in a landslide. Taking any guesswork out of the result, Nixon stoked the economy with expansive fiscal and monetary policy, and when polls showed that the public preferred McGovern on issues like inflation and taxes, Nixon shifted to the left. He took the unprecedented step of instituting wage-price controls to clamp down on inflation and promised to sock it to the rich and slash tax rates on the working class if reelected. “The essence of this is redistribution,” Nixon’s top domestic adviser, John Ehrlichman, told an astonished press. On foreign affairs, Nixon could justifiably claim that he was not only winding down the war in Vietnam, but also cooling off the Cold War, thanks to his famous trip to China. The Democrats could have resurrected FDR and Nixon would have trounced him in 1972.
McGovern promised to close tax loopholes for the rich and use federal revenue to provide low- and middle-income Americans with relief from rapidly rising property taxes. Most radically, McGovern united welfare reform and tax reform by proposing a “Demogrant” of $1,000 per year for every adult, regardless of income, as an alternative to Nixon’s complicated means-tested welfare overhaul plan.
So suppose McGovern's economic leftism continued to be upheld. Maybe Jimmy Carter still runs in 1976, albeit with both more populism and also attempts to implement some populist measure during his presidency. How does that go? Who do the Democrats nominate after Carter still gets beaten in 1980?