What if D-Day occured at Pas de Calais?

Dreadnought

Banned
What would have happened had the D-Day landings occurred at Pas de Calais instead of Normandy? (Let's assume the allies try to deceive the Germans into thinking that they were landing at Normandy, and as a result Pas de Calais is bombed half as much as OTL, but the German's *might* think the allies are landing at Normandy. The Landings will still occur on June 6, 1944)

  • Would the Allies Prevail at the landing, or would the Germans push them back into the Sea?
  • If the Allies win, will they suffer more, or fewer casualties?
  • Will the Allies supply situation be better or worse than OTL?
  • If the Allies secure Pas de Calais, what is their next move?
  • Would Operation Dragoon (Invasion of Southern France) still be launched?
  • How would the Eastern Front be affected?
Also, about when would these following Countries be fully liberated by the Allies?

  • France
  • Italy
  • Germany
  • Belgium
  • Netherlands
  • Luxembourg
  • Denmark
  • Norway
 
Last edited:

FDW

Banned
Wouldn't it be a whole lot more bloodier because the Germans wouldn't be as fooled as they were regarding Normandy?
 
What would have happened had the D-Day landings occurred at Pas de Calais instead of Normandy? (Let's assume the allies try to deceive the Germans into thinking that they were landing at Normandy, and as a result Pas de Calais is bombed half as much as OTL, but the German's *might* think the allies are landing at Normandy. The Landings will still occur on June 6, 1944)

  • Would the Allies Prevail at the landing, or would the Germans push them back into the Sea?
  • If the Allies win, will they suffer more, or fewer casualties?
  • Will the Allies supply situation be better or worse than OTL?
  • If the Allies secure Pas de Calais, what is their next move?
  • Would Operation Dragoon (Invasion of Southern France) still be launched?
  • How would the Eastern Front be affected?
Also, about when would these following Countries be fully liberated by the Allies?

  • France
  • Italy
  • Germany
  • Belgium
  • Netherlands
  • Luxembourg
  • Denmark
  • Norway

The Germans are going to push the Allies in to the sea and inflict tremendous casualties on them. The Allies are literally landing in the most heavily defended strip of coastline in the war by far. Even if the Allies manage to occupy the Pas De Calais, it will be a Pyrrhic victory in every meaning of the word, and their supply situation will be worse because even though they will be closer to Britain they will have much less territory under their control and probably no buffer between the fighting and beaches for quite a while. The Allies' next move will be just to hold the region against brutal counterattacks by the best Panzer divisions not fighting the Soviets and even if Operation Dragoon happens the chances of it's success will be lower because the Germans will have more reserves to deploy towards it since the bigger landings up north will have been crushed. The Eastern Front probably won't be as affected, though, since the Germans won't transfer enough troops to that front to matter, probably due to fears of another landing. By the end of the War, all of mainland Europe besides Italy, the Iberian Peninsula, Sweden, and Finland will be in the hands of the Soviets because the Western Allies probably won't be able to build up another army to launch a second invasion before Berlin or wherever the Nazis make their last stand is captured and the Third Reich crumbles.
 
I can only imagine this happening if there were no Dieppe to provide a clear example of what could go wrong, even then I'm not sure the Allies would really stick their head in the lion's mouth at Pas de Calais.
As previous posters have pointed this would be just about the optimum scenario for the Germans to defend the landings and has the real potential for total Allied defeat during the landing.
 
I think we have to assume that if the Allies decide they're going to land at Calais they'll put on a deception operation at least as strong as the one IOTL to try and make the Germans believe it'll actually be somewhere else. So there'll be at least some evidence pointing the Germans at Dieppe, or Normandy, or the South of France, or wherever the deception operation chooses to portray as the 'real' landing site. This is going to affect both the troops and fortifications the Germans have in the area, and also how willing they are to commit reaction forces if they think the 'real' invasion still hasn't happened. That's the thing with plausible alternate history, changing one event - the decision about an invasion site - will have knock-on effects on a whole raft of other things, and we can't just pretend they won't be changed at all.

Which raises another question - if the Allies are going to land at Calais, where will they select as the invasion site for their deception plan and what might trick the Germans into believing it?
 
I just cannot see this happening simply because this was where the Atlantic Wall was at its strongest and every military theory devised says you do not attack your enemy's strongest position unless you really have to. The Allies knew full well how tough the defences were in this area, that's why they pulled out every deception technique imaginable to convince the Germans that they'd land here while really aiming at Normandy.
 
I just cannot see this happening simply because this was where the Atlantic Wall was at its strongest and every military theory devised says you do not attack your enemy's strongest position unless you really have to. The Allies knew full well how tough the defences were in this area, that's why they pulled out every deception technique imaginable to convince the Germans that they'd land here while really aiming at Normandy.

I agree, I'm not sure why the Allies would try a landing here because they knew the German defenses were strongest here. It would also be hard for the Allies to decieve Hitler about this because he was so damn adamant about he Allies landing at Pas De Calais.
 
The allies lose the Germans send troops to eastern front.

Now Either

A) They use these reserves wisely and hold out until 1946 or even 1947 if everything else goes right for them.

B) Much more plausible Hitler orders a Gigantic offensive to drive the Soviets from the Fatherland... The Soviet tear it to peices and advance past the Elbe maybe as far as Dill.


 
The allies lose the Germans send troops to eastern front.

I am not quite sure Allies would lose outright or be pushed into sea. They still have overwhelming air and naval supremacy that could go a long way to blunting German counterattack. As for advance anywhere beyond say 10 km from the beachhead - good luck with that without suffering debilitating casualties. Most likely it would be, as someone pointed out, a Pyrrhic victory. Eventually. Possibly even Allies would then proceed to march and meet Soviets as they advance to Rhine.


A) They use these reserves wisely and hold out until 1946 or even 1947 if everything else goes right for them.

Uhm. Yes. :)

B) Much more plausible Hitler orders a Gigantic offensive to drive the Soviets from the Fatherland... The Soviet tear it to peices and advance past the Elbe maybe as far as Dill.

I agree, this is much more plausible. However, as Soviets advance, Germans will shift everything they can to east. Leaving west front wide open.
 

sharlin

Banned
And if the Allies did for some reason suffer retardation that would inspire them to attack in Calais and the attack was either bogged down or beaten back there's probably a higher chance Berlin vanishing in a bright flash and mushroom cloud.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I agree, I'm not sure why the Allies would try a landing here because they knew the German defenses were strongest here. It would also be hard for the Allies to decieve Hitler about this because he was so damn adamant about he Allies landing at Pas De Calais.

History is full of sub-optimal to down right dumb military decisions, so for me it is not much of a stretch. After delayed convoying in WW1 and WW2, not using bombers to harass the U-boats going out to sea for a long time, not bombing sub-pens while being built, Market Garden, etc.

The idea of Normandy was it would achieve surprise, so if you lose the surprise or seem to lose the surprise, it might be switched. One easy POD is the capture of a man who knows the plan in the E-boat fiasco. Or just the word gets out on in the UK. Colonel X here the plan being talked about in the officer brothels. Ike assumes German know, and goes to shorter plan, which has logistical benefits. Combine with the Germans appear to reinforce Normandy (say a panzer division is moved near to beach), and it becomes an easy POD. Note: It does not even require Hitler to know about the plans but to look like he found out. Allied know they lost officer to capture in E-boat, but dont' know if he talked. Hitler being sort of random decision maker moves 2-3 divisions around in following weeks for whatever reason.
 
And if the Allies did for some reason suffer retardation that would inspire them to attack in Calais and the attack was either bogged down or beaten back there's probably a higher chance Berlin vanishing in a bright flash and mushroom cloud.

that's not how you spell soviet france.

not opening up a western front would probably be seen as betrayal by uncle joe.
 
Would the Allies Prevail at the landing, or would the Germans push them back into the Sea?

The Allies would still win by far margin. Pas de Calais would mean even better air situation for the Allies and ultimately the better beach fortifications would be just more difficult obstacles to cross. As for local terrain, is there bocages around Calais?
 
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