What if Crete held, but Bismarck escapes?

[ghappy1000]

What if Crete defended itself from the German paratroopers, but the Bismarck escaped to reach Brest?
Maybe a possible pod would be Ark Royal in the Mediterranean. With the aircraft carrier, the German paratroopers get slaughtered by the fighters. Or, maybe an extra aircraft carrier means that Freyberg thinks that the sea attacks could be defeated [although unlikely].
However, the lack of Ark Royal results in Bismarck escaping.

 

[gaijin]

I'm going to take a wild guess and say the Germans still loose the war??

 

[Mike D]

I imagine that the Bismarck ends up the same way as Tirpitz and sits in harbour as a bogeyman until sunk by RAF or FAA air strikes, commando raids, minisubs, an attack on the harbour by the entire Home Fleet or whatever.

 

[mowque]

I think it would be a net gain for the Allies. Crete has lasting impact on the North Africa theater but the Bismarck can always be sunk later (as it will be).

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I think it would be a net gain for the Allies. Crete has lasting impact on the North Africa theater but the Bismarck can always be sunk later (as it will be).

Agreed; plus losing the Fallschirmjäger and the entailing losses at Crete would be very bad for the LW.

 

[Magnum]

Agreed; plus losing the Fallschirmjäger and the entailing losses at Crete would be very bad for the LW.

OTOH, the Bismark will probably be used as bait for the RAF to commit to bombing it in harbour, thereby severely weakening Fighter and Bomber command.

Moreover, if it breaks out into the North Sea along with the rest of the heavy surface units, there might be some effects on the supply convoys to Murmansk down the line.

Plus, a large part of the Fallschirmjager losses were suffered in the opening stages anyway, so I doubt casualties would be that much higher than OTL.

All in all though, no major changes to the course of the war IMVHO.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

OTOH, the Bismark will probably be used as bait for the RAF to commit to bombing it in harbour, thereby severely weakening Fighter and Bomber command.

Didn't really work with the Scharnhorst and other German ships that were in Brest IOTL. They smashed up the city with over 3000 tons of bombs and did suffer a bit, but were more than able to shift to bombing the Ruhr with 1000 bomber raids in 1942 after the Channel Dash. Unless Germany opts to leave the Bismarck in Brest through 1943 and rings it with FLAK and night fighters, its not going to attrit the British worse than IOTL.
http://www.scharnhorst-class.dk/scharnhorst/history/scharnbrest.html

 

[Magnum]

Unless Germany opts to leave the Bismarck in Brest through 1943 and rings it with FLAK and night fighters, its not going to attrit the British worse than IOTL.http://www.scharnhorst-class.dk/scharnhorst/history/scharnbrest.html

And if they do ? Would the British really risk leaving the Bismark alone, even if half of the LW fighters and Flak guns were positioned around it ?

also, the you provided states that

Daylight raids, it was estimated, resulted in 20 per cent losses

Given the rather unimpressive German commitment, its really something, no ?

 

[zoomar]

Boy, that's an odd combination. But to me the answer is obvious. Bismarck surviving its Altantic voyage would have absolutely no positive effect on the German war effort. The RAF essentially neutralized the German heavy units at Brest anyway, and I don't see why adding Bismarck to that list of targets would make much difference. Failing to take Crete would hurt, both geostratigically and in terms of losses of aircraft and manpower

 

[Deleted member 1487]

And if they do ? Would the British really risk leaving the Bismark alone, even if half of the LW fighters and Flak guns were positioned around it ?

also, the you provided states that


Given the rather unimpressive German commitment, its really something, no ?

They did mostly night raids as a result, which the Germans weren't yet good at combating.

 

[zert]

It might mean a small blow to the British ego to have the Bismark survive. I do think in the long run she will be sunk and Crete will be fortified. Bombers from Crete can be used to attack Ploesti as well as supplies for the DAK.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

It might mean a small blow to the British ego to have the Bismark survive. I do think in the long run she will be sunk and Crete will be fortified. Bombers from Crete can be used to attack Ploesti as well as supplies for the DAK.

Crete is hard to make into a base for bombing. It had few flat areas suitable for large bombers and limited infrastructure for supply. Most of the important ports are to the north of the island, which puts them in a bad position to be interdicted by submarines and aircraft based in Greece. It would take years to make it a viable airbase to attack Romania from, which really isn't worth it until 1943, but by that time Italy is getting ready to be invaded and would be a better, more suppliable base from which to base bombers and wouldn't take the investment needed to operate bombers from. Instead it is useful as an implicit threat to draw in Axis resources from other objectives. Still supplying it prior to 1943 would be tough given Italian and German airpower and sea power in the area; one thing that would help is that it would keep Italian submarines out of the Atlantic and may draw in more or the same number of German Uboats to interdict supply to the island, which would keep them from the BotA, which is more important. Really though its a resources sink for both sides; the Axis benefits more from holding it as a base than the Allies, but it still is enough of an implied threat to draw in resources that the Axis badly needs elsewhere to ensure it doesn't turn into a threat to Romania.

 

[zert]

If not based on Crete they can be refueled and service damage planes.

 

[mudhead]

The immediate thought I have: ARK ROYAL gets sunk by Stukas. Some of her aircraft survive, but have nowhere to go but Crete.

A couple OF RN losses IOTL may not have ocurred, as the LW concentrates on the CV.

 

[Anaxagoras]

OTOH, the Bismark will probably be used as bait for the RAF to commit to bombing it in harbour, thereby severely weakening Fighter and Bomber command.

They did that anyway IOTL. Brest was one of the most heavily bombed German-held cities, IIRC.

 

[LegionoftheUnitedStates]

Boy, that's an odd combination. But to me the answer is obvious. Bismarck surviving its Altantic voyage would have absolutely no positive effect on the German war effort. The RAF essentially neutralized the German heavy units at Brest anyway, and I don't see why adding Bismarck to that list of targets would make much difference. Failing to take Crete would hurt, both geostratigically and in terms of losses of aircraft and manpower

It's not that odd a combination. Both events occurred in late May of 1941. Crete fell just a few days after Bismarck was sunk.

 

[ghappy1000]

The immediate thought I have: ARK ROYAL gets sunk by Stukas. Some of her aircraft survive, but have nowhere to go but Crete.

A couple OF RN losses IOTL may not have ocurred, as the LW concentrates on the CV.

Possibilities for this scenario to occur:
1. Ark Royal deployed to Alexandria along with HMS Illustrious or instead of and gives Freyberg confidence about the non existance of the seabourne threat to Crete. [While possible, unlikely.Even an extra Italian battleship made unrepairable or in dockyards until 1942 won't change the seabourne invasion fears.] As for air cover, the 18 Fulmars won't make any difference.
2. Maybe, the Ark Royal is damaged by u boat torpedoes, but repaired in time to intervene in Norway. The HMS Courageous isn't sunk, but may be unlikely. The Glorious remains in the Mediterranean and joins the Taranto attack. But, even with 4 battleships totally unusable to the Italians, does it make any difference or not ?

 

[Riain]

There doesn't have to be fleets of heavy bombers pulverizing polesti for Crete to be a great asset to the allies. It would secure Malta and help make Libya untenable for the axis.

I'd trade 3 Bismarcks to keep Crete.

 

[MattII]

How does having Crete help the Malta situation?

 

[Riain]

How does having Crete help the Malta situation?

The sea between the benghazi bulge and crete was a nightmare for convoys heading from Alexandria. It wasn't too bad when the British held the bulge.

In addition one axis convoy route was to go to Crete and then due south to benghazi.