What if Cortes was never able to concur the Aztecs?

I do feel that the loss of a thousand man plus expedition would be a notable blow to the manpower avaliable to the Spanish in the New World and would also make the administration be more cautious in dealing with the mainland natives and also be a major blow to the idea that the New World meant easy riches.

With less Castilian Conquistadors in the New World would this mean the Revolt of the Communeros would go differently?

Without New World gold deposits would Charles have to relie more on a Spanish military and would it be bankrupting?
 
The thing that is easy to forget that the main killer of the native populations wasn't Europeans with their gunpowder weapons, it was the diseases that they brought with them. 90% of the Aztecs that died were victims of things like new flus and smallpox that they had no resistance too.

Not to mention that their wars to capture people to sacrifice to the Gods had made them near universally HATED by all the neighboring tribes and states who allied with the Spanish soldiers to wipe out their mutual enemy.

Something realistic could involve those native allies using the Spanish to gut the Aztecs, turn on the Conquistadors, then finish off the Aztecs. By the time Spain proper learns of what happened, the various tribes of Mexico are already hard at work on their own gunpowder weapons, (unknowingly) building up resistance to European illnesses, and breeding horses.
 
Alright people always misinterpret the disease thing.

90% of people in Central Mexico are believed to have died in total, not just from disease, and not because of one epidemic but because of a culmination of constant serious epidemics of different diseases, as well as this indigenous killer known as cocoliztli (which may have killed more than smallpox).

With no Spanish and no African presence everywhere, this disease cocktail is delayed - it's not going to come almost all at once like in OTL since there are less foreigners in Mesoamerica.

Cocoliztli was IMO caused by the decline of Mesoamerican structures caused by Conquest (there was possibly cocoliztli during the Classic Collapse) so that could be averted. All in all I think Mesoamerican populations are high enough and structures are strong enough to avert the collapse of the system like in Amazonia.
 
Perhaps a good chance to get rid of Cortés would be the Noche Triste going worse for the Spaniards, who get annhilated.

However... remember that, while the conquest by Cortés was going on, as the governor of Cuba, Diego de Velázquez, as branded him a rebel, Velázquez send Pánfilo de Narváez with an army to finish him.

What do I mean by that? That if Cortés got crushed, the Spaniards had the mean to try again.

After all, Cortés was the third guy trying to conquer Mexico. Kill him and you may turn him into some kind of Spanish Gordon and Moztecuma (or Cuauhtémoc) as the new Mahdi to be punished.

In short, after landing in Cuba, I don't see any single reason why Spain would not be interested in America and no defeat (not even a massacre) Would change that. They had the gold to keep Castille's ambitions going one.

Communication's too poor in the sixteenth century for Cortes to be considered a Gordon.Gordon was backed by the public because he was famous prior to the Mahdi revolt and that the public knows Britain's powerful enough to defeat the Mahdists.Gordon and his supporters were also able to run a public campaign against the government through communication using telegraph.
 
Don't be afraid of butterflies

I noticed that several respondents have brought up butterflies. You do need to think about these, but there is no reason you can't reasonably speculate on how a more successful Mexican resistance to the Spanish invasion could affect the rise and fall of European powers and the colonization of the new world. I will offer a few ideas of my own:

1. To prevent formation a Spanish empire based on the conquest and plunder of ancient American civilizations, you will probably need a point of divergence sometime before the European discovery of the New World. Once Spain is established in Cuba, with expeditions reaching the American mainland, they will soon learn of MesoAmerican civilizations with wealth and seek to reach them. Even without Cortez's unlicensed conquest, Spanish domination of Mexico and Central America is pretty much inevitable - perhaps not outright conquest, but the end result would be about the same.

2. Don't forget Peru. Spain is still going to explore south and west and eventually encounter the Incas. Even if Mexico never falls to the Spanish (very unlikely) Peru will provide the Spanish with lots of gold and silver to plunder.

3. A Spanish Empire NOT based on the quick fix of plundered wealth might be a better and more successful empire anyway. If Spain reaches the high civilizations of Mexico and Peru and, for some reason, is unable to conquer them outright the Mexicans and Peruvians will still be within Spain's orbit, and provide much better trade opportunities than the other areas of the Americas.

4. You need to find a way to eliminate or reduce the impact of European diseases on native populations to radically alter the course of Native history in the New World.
 
I noticed that several respondents have brought up butterflies. You do need to think about these, but there is no reason you can't reasonably speculate on how a more successful Mexican resistance to the Spanish invasion could affect the rise and fall of European powers and the colonization of the new world. I will offer a few ideas of my own:

1. To prevent formation a Spanish empire based on the conquest and plunder of ancient American civilizations, you will probably need a point of divergence sometime before the European discovery of the New World. Once Spain is established in Cuba, with expeditions reaching the American mainland, they will soon learn of MesoAmerican civilizations with wealth and seek to reach them. Even without Cortez's unlicensed conquest, Spanish domination of Mexico and Central America is pretty much inevitable - perhaps not outright conquest, but the end result would be about the same.

2. Don't forget Peru. Spain is still going to explore south and west and eventually encounter the Incas. Even if Mexico never falls to the Spanish (very unlikely) Peru will provide the Spanish with lots of gold and silver to plunder.

3. A Spanish Empire NOT based on the quick fix of plundered wealth might be a better and more successful empire anyway. If Spain reaches the high civilizations of Mexico and Peru and, for some reason, is unable to conquer them outright the Mexicans and Peruvians will still be within Spain's orbit, and provide much better trade opportunities than the other areas of the Americas.

4. You need to find a way to eliminate or reduce the impact of European diseases on native populations to radically alter the course of Native history in the New World.

1. A delayed conquest of Mexico would likely lead to the Aztecs collapsing into a civil war, which paradoxically makes it harder for the Spaniards to conquer them- it's easier to lop of the head and move in to the king's palace than to deal with a bunch of feuding city states. Just as importantly this will have a knock on effect for the Inca- who are the most likely of any of the Pre-Colombian empires to survive independent due to their isolation and relative unity. Pizarro was IIRC part of Cortez' expedition. Without this radical success the idea that you could waltz into the Andes with a few hundred men and end up a de facto king won't be as prevalent.

2. Again this assumes they conquer outright. Most of these conquests were not driven by the state but rather by ambitious second sons and the like who had the drive to climb up in the world. The inca are strong and distant, if they hadn't been hit right after a civil war Pizarro wouldn't have gotten as far as he did.

3. Exactly- up until the 1600s the Netherlands were more important anyway. And that's ignoring the effect of hyperinflation. Just as important is the role New World Silver had in China- the Ming's economy was even more devastated by the influx of silver, and also allowed Spanish merchants to trade silver for silks, porcelain etc. That trade vanishes with a delayed conquest.

4. The disease was a result of many things- but with a delayed contact/conquest, the effects of social collapse caused by war and exploitation, together with fewer disease vectors, likely takes some of the sting off the disease, how much is almost impossible to predict. Say 10-20% fewer dead in Mexico and 50% less in the Andes as minimum and maximums.
Just as important is that these were the total deaths- over several decades- and didn't necessarily happen all at once. Again the civil war/diseases will likely kill at least half of Mexico but it will take time, and the Spaniards may or may not be in a position to exploit that.
 
If Huayna Capac and his eldest son doesn't die, there's hardly a civil war. Again, that depends on the contact between the Spaniards and the Azctecs, how long they stay.

However, let me remind you something. Destroying Cortés wasn't enough. They had to destroy Veracruz also, or the Spaniards would had a place from where to start it all over again, easier thatn trying from Cuba.

Could it be stormed by the Aztec army?
 
If Huayna Capac and his eldest son doesn't die, there's hardly a civil war. Again, that depends on the contact between the Spaniards and the Azctecs, how long they stay.

However, let me remind you something. Destroying Cortés wasn't enough. They had to destroy Veracruz also, or the Spaniards would had a place from where to start it all over again, easier thatn trying from Cuba.

Could it be stormed by the Aztec army?

The Totonac people who initially aligned with Cortes may occupy the fort themselves after word gets back of the Spanish defeat
 
When Cortés departed to Tenochtitlan, he left at Veracruz captain Juan de Escalante commanding the garrison of Veracruz. Under his command he had 60 soldiers, most of them old or wounded. Escalante and six of his soldiers were killed in a battle trying to help the Totonac against Cuauhpopoca. If Cortés is defeated, Cuauhpopoca may try to storm Veracruz or the Totonac may try themselves to do that in order to avoid Cuauhpopoca's revenge or to help themselves to win his favour (or at least his forgiveness).

In that situation, I would think that the future of Veracruz doesn't seem to bright.

PS: fter Otumba, Cortés ordered that the guns he had left at Veracruz were sent to him- IF he defenders have guns, they may have some psycological hedge upon the attackers.
 
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Something else I've remembered. From time to time Cortés had to cajole his men and twi he ordered some of them hanged for planning to desert. With Cortés dead, the unity of the Spanish forces (the remaining ones) would be gone. They would be only fighting for their lives.

How many Spaniards would be able to escape from Veracruz to tell their tales to Velázquez? And when the news get to Spain?

Awareness of Mexican civilizations, lands and wealth was too widespread in both Spain and the Indies to be ignored. So the Spaniards may turn to Velázquez original plan: trade rather than colonization. They may establish a trade center, with the Crown's approval or the whole event is gone when Velázquez dies in 1524.

The conquest, if ever, of Mexico would be delayed, not stopped. By that time the men and the efforts were placed elsewhere in the Caribbean. The defeat of Cortés would stop the Spanish migration. Without opportunities, there's not reason to move. By the way, the smallpox that doomed the Incas came from the Spanish settlement at Panamá (shorter way). You still have Spaniards there.

If Peru is conquered, and I cannot see why not, it's going to attrack the migration that was not going to Mexico. And its wealth may give new forces to the Spaniards to try again to conquer the Aztecs. Thus, the final Spanish conquer is rather delayed than deterred.

What kind of Aztec Empire they would find in their return? The Empire was loosely bound together. Local rulers were eager to defect if occasion arose. Give them an incompetent ruler and that's all they need. And let's not forget the smallpox epidemic of 1519-1520...
 
It depends on Pizzaro. He was the one who found things in OTL but there were other Spanish explorers in the area. Word of the Inca was spread north by another explorer who survived to bring the rumor of the Inca back to Panama. At the time Pizzaro was a mayor in Panama.

With the disaster of Cortes it may lead the fiancers from OTL to back off on an expedition, or butterflies causes the Spanish explorer to die before bringing word of the Inca, or because of taint by association Pizzaro is not entrusted with an expedition.

For the Inca time is what they need and the more time they get the chances of lasting longer increases.
 
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