What if Columbus and his whole crew were either stranded or dead before they could return to Spain?

Either all of his ships sunk on the way back or the natives killed all of them. Would the America’s still see the same level of destruction from disease, if so how long would it take for them to recover? How long would it take for Europe to try again?
 
Any prolonged contact between people from the Old World (be they Europeans, Africans, or Asians) and the New would transmit contagious diseases to the New Worlders. It wasn't a deliberate thing, after all, and there would be no way to avoid it. As for Columbus' expedition never returning, well, it would probably set the timetable back a decade or two, but others were bound to try and probably pretty soon afterwards.
 
Columbus was considered insane because his measurements of the earth's circumference was incorrect. If he never came back people may just assume that the ocean is too big to cross all the way to asia. As for disease it depends if he even landed or if his crew was carrying the disease or if the contact was direct enough to transmit it.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Most likely Portuguese sailors begin exploring that land mass they keep passing on their voyages from India.
The Portuguese would using the winds to swing west on way to India and discover Brazil in and around the same time 1500. The issue was not that there was land to the west, for information from fishermen and Portuguese own westward settlement in Azores there was speculation of land to the west. The Portuguese believed it was that it was faster and quicker to sail around Africa.

Note: the reason Portugal turned down Columbus when he came to Lisbon asking for sponsor of his westward idea was because Portuguese explorers had already mapped a way to circle around Africa reaching cape of good hope “named by Portuguese for such reason” and were preparing to sail to India (which Portuguese spies had already obtained maps of Indian Ocean).

So what this would the failure of Columbus to return do? It would both delay British, French and subsequent Spanish exploration for few decades. Eventually there would be another expedition(s) and contact made.

Disease would follow but colonization, conquest would not be same. Different Aztec king might just kill all Spanish that land in Mexico. Inca would not react same way. These two facts would mean wealth and colonization be different. Spain might not be tied with Hapsburg’s.
 
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Do what this would do us both delay British, French snd subsequent Spanish exploration for few decades. Eventually there would be another expedition(s) and contact made.

Disease would hollow but colonization, conquest would not be same. Different Aztec king might just kill all Spanish that land in Mexico. Inca would not react same way. These two facts would mean wealth and colonization be different. Spain might not be tied with Hapsburg’s.

While I agree that the butterfly effects could potentially be massive in both Worlds, I'd argue that the delay would not be less than 10 years.

IIRC, Basque fisherman were already exploiting the Cod Banks off Newfoundland by the 1400s, and it was following these tales that John Cabot discovered North America in 1497. Columbus's theory of finding a shortcut to India did not seem to factor in any of his prior cottages before 1492.

So barring any butterflies on Cabot from Columbus's failure, you're probably going to have first contact by a Venetian working for the Tudors instead of a Genoan working for the Spanish in 1492. The changes from this could be huge, but overall effects from the pandemic should largely be similar to OTL.
 

Lusitania

Donor
While I agree that the butterfly effects could potentially be massive in both Worlds, I'd argue that the delay would not be less than 10 years.

IIRC, Basque fisherman were already exploiting the Cod Banks off Newfoundland by the 1400s, and it was following these tales that John Cabot discovered North America in 1497. Columbus's theory of finding a shortcut to India did not seem to factor in any of his prior cottages before 1492.

So barring any butterflies on Cabot from Columbus's failure, you're probably going to have first contact by a Venetian working for the Tudors instead of a Genoan working for the Spanish in 1492. The changes from this could be huge, but overall effects from the pandemic should largely be similar to OTL.
The difference will be a Cabot discovering frozen forests full natives will not provide much incentive.

When I stated couple of decades I was talking about serious effort in the carribean where the big profit was. The north was practically worthless till fur trade.
 

SwampTiger

Banned
Depending on what the various kings and ministers knew of this new land, you could see various nations sending voyages of discovery into the area of the Caribbean. The various treaties between Spain and Portugal would not be the same. England, Scotland, France and the Netherlands would have greater incentive to pursue colonization in the 1510's and 1520's. Everyone saw the wealth Portugal gained from the Indian trade. West was the only direction allowed by the Church, Papal Bull Inter Cataera in 1493. The next year you get Tordesillas between Spain and Portugal.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Columbus was considered insane because his measurements of the earth's circumference was incorrect. If he never came back people may just assume that the ocean is too big to cross all the way to asia.

If he was considered so insane in his estimates, why did Magellan try a circumnavigation at the time, and why did explorers keep trying to find a northwest passage to Asia up to 200 years later?

The Portuguese would using the winds to swing west on way to India and discover Brazil in and around the same time 1500.

Didn't the Volta Do Mar move mean that the Portuguese approached closest to Brazil on the return leg from India and the Cape rather than the outbound journey to the Cape and India?

I think this map illustrates an important fact to reference, within fifty years after Columbus a majority of America's tropical and temperate shores were charted. By 1542, fifty year after Columbus hit the Bahamas, all of the American coasts from Labrador and the St. Lawrence in the northeast, around Cape Horn and the whole southern continent, and then the west coast of North America up to the latitude of northern California were known to Europeans and charted. Only the Arctic coasts of North America and the Pacific Northwest remained to be discovered after that 50-year spurt.

But this raises the question- did the speed of the initial navigation (which also sponsored permanent and non-permanent colonial efforts every couple hundred miles) depend on the initial landfall being in the Caribbean, so we would expect follow-up to not be so fast if first landfall was in cold Newfoundland, or in Brazil, which some interesting trees but no gold on the coast? Were the coasts explored so fast within fifty years only because the first natives Columbus happened upon had ornamental gold, and then Mexico turned out to have so much?

Or ,would public announcement of a landfall *anywhere* on the American coast, even if there were no gold or rich cities to plunder (like in Newfoundland or Brazil), have caused the Europeans to explore the American coasts so comprehensively, simply because of the Europeans readiness to take risks, the prospect of potential profit from any commodities, or of a another route to Asia, and because navigational tech was up to the task in the late 1400s early 1500s?

Map illustrating OTL's first fifty years of exploration is below:

Best map - explorers, sans portraits-lower-res.jpg
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
IIRC, Basque fisherman were already exploiting the Cod Banks off Newfoundland by the 1400s,

People often throw this out implying that it makes European discovery and widespread colonization a near certainty by around the time Columbus voyaged. But if it went on for decades without leading to anything, that seems to indicate fishermen were not good publicists for the American continent.

and it was following these tales that John Cabot discovered North America in 1497.

Are you sure about that? Is there a source substantiating Cabot being influenced by fishermen? I would think he would certainly have known of Columbus' first voyage and return by the time he planned his own expedition. And Columbus was such publicist that I could easily see him being the inspiration for later navigators like Cabot.

Columbus's theory of finding a shortcut to India did not seem to factor in any of his prior cottages before 1492.

"cottages"? I think you meant something else, and probably the autocorrect on your mobile device over-wrote the word you meant to use. But you are referring still to Cabot in this sentence, right?
 
There is a novel in spanish with this premise: "Las Cronicas de la Serpiente Emplumada"/"The Chronicles of the Feathered Serpent" by Edgardo Civallero. It can be found online under a creative commons license.
 
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