what if Clinton had been impeached or resigned in 98?

W/ Gore as incumbent President in '00 he probably wins: possible different reaction to 9/11? No Iraq War in '03?

Does this take HRC out of play since she probably goes away with Bill. No Senate run in 00. No Sec State, No POTUS run

No Kerry in '04. If Gore wins in '04, no Obama in 08?

I am sure there are other departures
 
If WJC is out before 1/20/99, Gore served more than half of that term and is ineligible in 2004. Kerry might not be the nominee (with no W, the Democrats aren't trying to relitigate the National Guard issue).

Obama might still be a Senate candidate in 2004, as national issues weren't involved in clearing the field. And that means he can still run in 2008. But if Iraq and Bear Stearns are butterflied, he has a harder time winning.
 
In response to 9/11, Pres. Gore says, we will go after those responsible and we will bring them to justice. (But he doesn’t add the extra part which President Bush added that we will draw no distinction between those responsible and those harboring.)

The U.S. diplomatic coup gets on the phone with their Afghan counterparts and say, We have to go after al-Qaeda, the American public we settle for no less. In mafiosa terms, this is referred as giving someone an offer they can’t refuse. It’s emphatically not a sign of weakness.

The Taliban leadership sees the writing on the wall. They go through the motion of making an public invitation (happy accident, temporary phase of sanity, whatever you want to call in).

And so, we go into Afghanistan and we fight just al-Qaeda. Of course, this has effects both good and bad.
 
. . . possible different reaction to 9/11? . . .
And nothing’s served by Pres. Gore directly talking to his counterpart in Afghanistan. All that’s likely to do is get an emotional reaction rather than a logical reaction.

Use intermediaries. Maybe ask the Kuwaitis. Let them tell the Taliban leadership: Let me tell you how big the war was in ‘91, let me tell you how huge this is on American media morning, noon, and night, it is inconceivable that the Americans will not do something.

Done lousily, this has a 20% chance of working. Done well, maybe a 40% chance.
 
I guess I am being pedantic, but Clinton was impeached on perjury and obstruction of justice. However, he was not removed from office.

The House votes for impeachment, the Senate votes to remove but you need 67 votes in the Senate to remove.
 
W/ Gore as incumbent President in '00 he probably wins: possible different reaction to 9/11? No Iraq War in '03?

Does this take HRC out of play since she probably goes away with Bill. No Senate run in 00. No Sec State, No POTUS run

No Kerry in '04. If Gore wins in '04, no Obama in 08?

I am sure there are other departures

Why? Clinton would have been either removed from office (He was impeached OTL) or resigned in disgrace. In either case that means he was almost certainly found guilty of more than covering up an affair by committing perjury. In which case I do NOT want to be the Democrat running in 2000!
 
And nothing’s served by Pres. Gore directly talking to his counterpart in Afghanistan. All that’s likely to do is get an emotional reaction rather than a logical reaction.

Use intermediaries. Maybe ask the Kuwaitis. Let them tell the Taliban leadership: Let me tell you how big the war was in ‘91, let me tell you how huge this is on American media morning, noon, and night, it is inconceivable that the Americans will not do something.

Done lousily, this has a 20% chance of working. Done well, maybe a 40% chance.

Which means there is at least a 60-80% Afghanistan goes like OTL. I think it would be even higher than that. The Afghan regime was done for the moment the planes crashed into the towers.
 

SsgtC

Banned
If Clinton resigns, or worse, is removed from office, the Republicans could nominate a wet paper towel for President and win. 2000 turns into a blood bath for Democrats.
 
It troubles me how, in the wake of #MeToo, the narrative is now setting in that Democrats made the wrong choice in supporting Clinton and he should've stepped aside, because it would've ensured a Gore win in 2000. This is a complete misreading of history. If this had happened, the media and the Republicans would not have been satisfied with Clinton's scalp. Gore was going to be in their sights, with a fury that would've made the "phony exaggerator" attacks seem mild and benign in comparison. They would have run with rumors of Gore pardoning Clinton and made hay of it, even though Gore would never have done so. In addition, Gore would've moved even farther in distancing himself from Clinton than he did IOTL, to his detriment in a 2000 campaign...if he even made it that far.
 
Except the Dems (and the country) would have totally blocked any scalping of Gore and the second impeachment trial would have been a total fiasco. In fact, I'm pretty sure it'd be an ironclad agreement for the Senate Dems to convict Clinton on condition that no impeachment charges get pressed on Gore. And make no mistake, a gentlemen's agreement can be far more binding than any contract, and this would surely be the case.

The main POD here would be a credible rape prosecution (preferably from a loyal dem whistleblower) instead of just perjury. There'd also be no pardon. You'd also need a radically different 1990s third wave feminism from the OTL variety that's far more #metoo and/or sexually conservative to make it to where the feminist movement was at the forefront of the impeachment pressure.

The word backfire doesn't begin to describe the problems that would come from this, so much so that it would give Gore a ton of momentum and goodwill, even (or maybe especially if) he pardons Clinton. I think Gingrich and the hardcore Reps clearly wanted Gingrich to become President by default, but while Al Gore is a lot of things, being Spiro Agnew is not one of them, no matter how yellow the journalism.
 
Last edited:
It takes something special to win 3 elections in a row. The Dems are going to be hard pushed to manage that whoever the candidate is.

Clinton went out with rising popularity. Can Gore do the same?

I am more interested to see if impeachment becomes weaponized faster than it has already.
 

ASUKIRIK

Banned
I think Clinton will only (could only forced to) resign if his affair resulted in him putting a bastard inside Monica.

Anything less than that and American public would be still very willing to forgive him due to his accomplishments.
 
Impeachment proceedings begin against President Gore almost immediately. Gingrich was severely overconfident to even attempt the OTL impeachment, and to have his efforts succeed would only reinforce that hubris. It seems to me that by 1992 the Republican Party had not only grown complacent about always having the White House, but had, in fact, decided that there should never be a Democratic President again. So Gingrich would want to finish the job and take the Presidency for himself. I don't think he'd succeed, but he'd have every reason to try.
 
Except the Dems (and the country) would have totally blocked any scalping of Gore and the second impeachment trial would have been a total fiasco. In fact, I'm pretty sure it'd be an ironclad agreement for the Senate Dems to convict Clinton on condition that no impeachment charges get pressed on Gore. And make no mistake, a gentlemen's agreement can be far more binding than any contract, and this would surely be the case.

The main POD here would be a credible rape prosecution (preferably from a loyal dem whistleblower) instead of just perjury. There'd also be no pardon. You'd also need a radically different 1990s third wave feminism from the OTL variety that's far more #metoo and/or sexually conservative to make it to where the feminist movement was at the forefront of the impeachment pressure.

The word backfire doesn't begin to describe the problems that would come from this, so much so that it would give Gore a ton of momentum and goodwill, even (or maybe especially if) he pardons Clinton. I think Gingrich and the hardcore Reps clearly wanted Gingrich to become President by default, but while Al Gore is a lot of things, being Spiro Agnew is not one of them, no matter how yellow the journalism.

They wouldn't have to impeach Gore as well. If Clinton is removed from office Gore is going down with him.
 
I think Clinton will only (could only forced to) resign if his affair resulted in him putting a bastard inside Monica.

Anything less than that and American public would be still very willing to forgive him due to his accomplishments.

That wouldn't do it. If the US public didn't care about the affair they wouldn't care about the possible logical result of one.
 
Clinton deserved to be impeached but not convicted I think. Lying under oath ought to be formally called out, but given the context it didn't seem like enough to push a fairly-popular president out of office.

Gore likely wins in 2000 with incumbency advantage + the nation thinking the impeachment was a bit much. The OTL reaction to impeachment was bad enough, but TTL it'd be even more anti-GOP.

Who Gore picks as Vice President will be important. If he picks Lieberman that'll just be a very noticeable betrayal of Clinton, so hopefully he doesn't do that. Gore will need somebody who can deal with the legislature - Dick Gephardt comes to mind as a good person for this.

2004 would likely see a different crop of Democratic Candidates popping up than historically. Gore's VP will likely be the frontrunner, but after 3 terms you'd likely see demands for a change. W might not run in 2000 here for all we know given the different political environment, so maybe he's the candidate.
 

ASUKIRIK

Banned
That wouldn't do it. If the US public didn't care about the affair they wouldn't care about the possible logical result of one.
It's one thing for a man to have sexual relationship with other women under your spouse's nose...

But it's another, much deeper levels of betrayal when a man impregnated his mistress, and deny that when said pregnancy is not obvious yet (I did not have sexual relations with that woman) but then when the baby is born, DNA test proved that Clinton is the father.

Fucking another women is forgiveable. Making and abandoning bastard child is another level.
 
Top