What If CIA Instigated Sino-Soviet War

As it says on the tin.

What if the CIA, instead of operations in Central and South America, and the Middle East focused most if not all of its covert operations on fermenting a Sino-Soviet Confrontation? (1960-1980)


What conceivably could be done to bring about a DOW? and what would happen afterward?
 
Well they nearly did so in 1969. Just more killed and more skirmishes, then war. USSR wins conventionally. Nobody wins if nuclear.

Anway, here's a thread.
 
Yeah, the risks are huge. As in "we might be starting World War 3" huge. Intelligence agencies are normally rather adverse to running ops that run the risk of getting their parent country annihilated for rather obvious reasons.
 
The CIA doesn't have to, the White House could do it. When the Soviets ask to see if the US Government would be ok with a Soviet Preemptive strike on China, have the WH say yes.
 

Japhy

Banned
As it says on the tin.

What if the CIA, instead of operations in Central and South America, and the Middle East focused most if not all of its covert operations on fermenting a Sino-Soviet Confrontation? (1960-1980)


What conceivably could be done to bring about a DOW? and what would happen afterward?

The People's Republic and the Soviet Union were more than capable of creating and solving such crisises on their own. :rolleyes:
 
Well they nearly did so in 1969. Just more killed and more skirmishes, then war. USSR wins conventionally. Nobody wins if nuclear.

Anway, here's a thread.

Doubt it, Maoist China will turtle into a giant Afghanistan on the far side of the earth for the Soviets. At best the Soviets sweep in claim a victory and then leave, at worst 3 million Soviet troops are tied down in China in a war that can only be won by a genocide of 700 million to 1 billion people.
 
What would be the catalyst?

What if Nixon and the CIA are able to open ties with China a decade sooner. Both Nixon and CIA convince PRC that Russia is slowly surrounding China. Mongolia is Soviet satellite as is North Korea. Vietnam will be as well. The kicker will be that the Americans convince the Chinese that the USSR is aiming for Sinkiang and then Tibet ..... slowly want to dismember China.

USA honeypots China with perhaps trying to improve PRC relations with Taiwan in brokering a union with a United China. Taiwan is autonomous province. Britain also throws in Hong Kong earlier as well.

China takes the bate

China intervenes in Vietnam a decade sooner? When the North launches Tet, the Chinese launch into North Vietnam. CIA convinces China that Soviets goal is to ring China with Soviet satellites such as North Korea, Mongolia, North Vietnam. CIA convinces China that after Vietnam, USSR will stir up Sinkiang.

China intervenes in NV

Soviets then launch campaigns against China in Manchuria and Sinkiang, gets nowhere. USA supplies China with some arms but more with food and logistical supplies. USA invests in Chinese infrastructure sooner .... Soviets are bogged down. USA and China are winners. After Soviets leave China, China, USA and South Korea gain back more of the Korean peninsula for the ROK. Only the Northeast is left open as a buffer to the USSR.

China gets Taiwan and Hing Kong sooner, albeit PRC takes a very hands off approach and allows economies to flourish. China also gets those small islands that they are squabbling over Japan with

USA also exports food and other items to USSR but not as much as to China.

Chinese get NV and Laos

SV and Cambodia are USA influenced

Eastern Europe bloc disintegrates in early 1980's or late 70's (5 - 10 years sooner than OTL)

Long term effect is no BRICS as China and Russia do not like each other.
 
Doubt it, Maoist China will turtle into a giant Afghanistan on the far side of the earth for the Soviets. At best the Soviets sweep in claim a victory and then leave, at worst 3 million Soviet troops are tied down in China in a war that can only be won by a genocide of 700 million to 1 billion people.

Or they can knock off Xinjiang, Mongolia, and possibly the Northeast (installing a puppet govt. there), and sent a punitive expedition to Beijing and back. The Soviets would probably fight until Mao runs or is overthrown, then call it good, impose the mother of unequal treaties on China, and get out.
 
Soviets then launch campaigns against China in Manchuria and Sinkiang, gets nowhere. USA supplies China with some arms but more with food and logistical supplies. USA invests in Chinese infrastructure sooner .... Soviets are bogged down. USA and China are winners. After Soviets leave China, China, USA and South Korea gain back more of the Korean peninsula for the ROK. Only the Northeast is left open as a buffer to the USSR.

Yeah a Sino-Soviet war in 1979 favors the PRC much more compared with 1969. There is almost no chance for Soviet long-term occupation of anything Chinese in this situation. And when the USSR collapses the Chinese might even continue to claim the Outer Manchurian areas just to spite the Russians.
 
Or they can knock off Xinjiang, Mongolia, and possibly the Northeast (installing a puppet govt. there), and sent a punitive expedition to Beijing and back. The Soviets would probably fight until Mao runs or is overthrown, then call it good, impose the mother of unequal treaties on China, and get out.

Xinjiang maybe, Inner Mongolia/Northeast not a chance. The Soviet's will have the initial advantage, but once the massive manpower capability of a unified and stable China is called up... Yeah, highly unlikely the Soviet's will be able to wage a high intensity war against a 3-4 million PLA plus tens of millions of militia, think about the ammunition, fuel, and supplies the Soviets are going to need in a highly hostile territory.

Like I said, initial breakthrough, quickly bog down somewhere in Central Jilin, Hebei. After that, depends on whether the Soviets are willing to stomach the mother of all warfare, they likely claim victory and leave. If not, the Soviet's will be forced to transfer units from Europe and their entire logisitical network to the east. This will lead to unrest in the Warsaw Pact nations, severly strain the Soviet economy, and in the long run bankrupt the USSR.

Mao's China will now expirence an eurphoria that will make the Cultural Revoultion look like bland. You see, Mao wants something like this to happen. "Foreign Imperialists invading the ancestral land" will rally the nation like nothing else in the world. China will suffer, and suffer greatly in many areas especially in the regions near the frontlines, but in the end "People's Warfare" the strategy that won the Vietnam War, Afghanistan, and is the founding block of modern guerilla warfare counters a large conventional style warfare.

Only a short punitive war along the border be in the best interest of the USSR. Capture border towns and maybe push towards the provincial capitals, then withdrawl. A long protracted war will be devastating, a war of occupation will be disastrous for the USSR.
 
Wasn't Soviet military doctrine at this point to open with a nuclear exchange?

If we assume 1969 as the flashpoint, since they almost went nuclear anyway then, the Soviets can probably meaningfully win a nuclear exchange. The Chinese are estimated to have only 50 weapons at this point. I forget what they had for delivery platforms, but it wasn't much. The Soviets probably know where all those weapons are. They could probably mount an effective disarming first strike, knocking out all or almost all of the Chinese arsenal on the ground before they can launch, along with a sizable chunk of the rest of the Chinese military infrastructure.
 
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