What If Churchill Were Killed During World War One?

Rubicon

Banned
So if the netherlands isn't invaded does that mean the French 7th army is not sent to reinforce them, but instead remains in GHQ reserve right behind the Meuse? So much for sickle cut then.
huh? The D plan always had the French 7th army at the extreme left flank, it was only with the Breda variant that it would link up with the Dutch.
 
The First Crack


The Belgian troops were pushed back from the frontiers more quickly than had been expected.

The German eighteenth division reached and relived the glider troops who had secured Eban Emael near the Belgian - Dutch border. A handful of Belgian troops cross the border and are interned by the neutral Dutch. Most of the Belgian divisions are retreating in good order. They are headed to the Meuse where the French are quickly arriving. As in the Great War it looks as though Liege will be the first great battle on the Western Front.

Once it is obvious where the main attack is most of the Allied air units sortie into Belgium to support the ground units. Hawker Hurricanes and Dewotine D 520s fight Me 109s with no marked advantage longing to either side. Yet the Germans are gaining air superiority. This is in large part due to French bureaucratic failures. Though they have more than seven hundred and fifty D 520s available only thirty six are deployed on the front lines.

Despite the surprise and early setbacks there is high confidence on the Allied side. The line from Antwerp to Namur was secure. All together there are one hundred and twenty five British, French, and Belgian divisions with more tanks, artillery, and planes than the enemy. The Germans have one hundred forty one divisions including ten panzer divisions. Many of the German tanks are Mark ones and twos and are seriously deficient in armor and fire power.

The Germans’ greatest advantage does not lie in superior numbers or quality of equipment, but in their doctrine, organization, and tactics.

April 25, 1940

In the Ardennes, the linchpin of the Allied lines, the French Second Army is taken completely by surprise by a sudden and violent attack from General Guderian’s nineteenth Corps.

French tactical doctrine is that all major offensives much be proceeded by extended artillery barrage. Despite the evidence from the Polish campaign and the recent attack into Belgium the French High Command is still wedded to this notion. They are refighting the battles of 1918.

Relying on Ju 87s to wreck artillery emplacements and fortifications the Germans succeed in crossing the Meuse near Dinant and Sedan. Wasting no time the Germans pushed forward as their engineers were constructing pontoon bridges. Sedan was captured as the shattered French divisions pulled back.

April 26, 1940

Record of telephone conversation between British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and French Premiere Paul Reynaud.

Chamberlain: “I am not sure I understand.”

Reynaud: “We have suffered a defeat at Sedan. Our lines have been broken.”

Chamberlain: “Surely the situation is not so dire as you make it out to be? One single battle will not decide the war.”

(A long pause.)

Reynaud: “The Supreme Commander (Gamelin) believes we may be able to seal the breech using the Seventh Army. They should be in position to counter attack within the next few days.”

Chamberlain: “I readily agree with that. Even if we have suffered a defeat we should still have no problem maintaining a continuous front.”

Reynaud: “This is possible, but if the gap is not closed Paris will be threatened. The loss of Paris would be a huge calamity.”

Chamberlain: “I quite agree. I assure you Premiere I shall do everything in my power to prevent that from happening.”

Reynaud: “The most vital need is to destroy the bridges on the Meuse. Can you direct your bombers to attack them immediately and in force?”

Chamberlain: “I shall. I assure you that we shall not let down our allies in this vital hour.”

XXX

At the end of the call Neville Chamberlain is convinced that the new French Premiere is overstating things and the situation, while serious, is not cause for panic. The Germans cannot move fast enough to threaten Paris before the front is restored. In his mind’s eye he sees a large salient similar to the one created by the last German offensives of the Great War.

April 27, 1940

The following day the British throw in seventy four bombers in an effort to knock out the three bridges that are allowing German tanks and infantry to pour across. Forty of the bombers are shot down by anti-aircraft fire. It is the single worst rate of loss in the history of the RAF. For this cost they achieve two near hits on one of the bridges.

On the same day French General Lafontaine launches a counter attack with fifty five medium tanks. Initially he has some success, but in the afternoon the effort is smashed by superior enemy tank forces that have only recently crossed over the Meuse.

This will be the last attempt at a counter attack until the Seventh Army is in position. German forces will continue to pour over the bridges almost unmolested from this point on.
 

Rubicon

Banned
Since you have inexplicably positioned the French 7th army near Sedan and Dinant, I must ask what troops are holding the allied left flank ? If you simply move the 7th army away from it's designated position according to the Dyle plan you leave a 20-25km wide gap north of the Belgian army. What troops are holding that gap?

Also please explain the changes in the Dyle plan, why aren't some of the best allied troops (French 7th army) where the expected German schwerpunkt is in Belgium, instead of right by what the French GHQ considered an unimportant section of the front near the ardennes?
 
As events showed it was rather reckless to leave the entire western front without a mobile reserve. That was a far more dangerous decision than including the Seventh Army in the move north. Reynaud did not have a great deal of faith in Gamelin as a commander and in OTL was on the verge of sacking him.

In this time line with no fighting in Norway to act as a diversion Reynaud puts more attention towards the plans for fending off a German attack. He insists that the army keep some troops available in case of an emergency.
 

Rubicon

Banned
The french army already had a reserve consisting of three armoured divisions and 19 infantry divisions of which two armoured and five infantry divisions were earmarked for army group 1. Why would it then need the entire 7th army in reserve? It would be even more stupid to leave the left flank hanging in the open when there already is a reserve.

And just to ask, what rationale do the Germans have for attacking in april instead of may? There were some really good reasons why Fall Gelb was delayed into may.
 
Disaster


April 29, 1940

The battle of Reims begins with a heavy aerial attack. After only four days of battle the German Luftwaffe has gained air superiority over northern France. They have a clear picture of where the French are and where they are moving while the French remain uncertain of German strength.

General Giraud was still gathering and concentrating his in preparation for the move north to secure the Meuse ‘salient.’ The Second Army’s fifty fifth division has been shattered and there is a huge at least fifteen kilometers wide in the Allied lines. While the situation is obviously serious his forces are in a position to block an attack aimed south. His troops have been rushed here and are still in some disorder. He is still waiting on some of his heavy artillery which should be arriving sometime that evening by rail.

To launch an attack without all of his artillery in place would be unthinkable. Gamelin agrees. The Germans have established a bridgehead at Sedan but they will need time to concentrate enough artillery and supplies to mount a serious attack.

The French are surprised then when Guderian’s forces strike. Guderian is attacking with just six divisions; First, Second, Seventh, and Tenth panzer divisions along with Third and Eighteenth motorized infantry divisions with roughly eight hundred operational tanks.

Giraud has about four hundred light and medium tanks including the remnants of General Lafontain’s attack. As per French doctrine though they have been spread out among his brigades. In every other area he has a large advantage over the enemy. He has more men, more artillery, more antitank weapons.

Guderian has surprise, all of his tanks in a single mass, good command and control of his troops as they are all connected to him by radio, and he has help from the skies.

The French Sixtieth Infantry division is struck first.

There are trenches dug and machine gun emplacements, but the army was not expecting to fight a battle here and had not deployed for it. Even so the twenty five mm antitank guns and the seventy fives in the artillery quickly open up and destroy or disable eleven Mark ones and six Mark twos before they are overwhelmed.

Thirty Hotchkiss 35’s engaged trying to beat back the enemy. These light tanks had 37 mm cannons and were thinly armored. They were quickly defeated by a regiment of more heavily armored Mark threes and some German antitank guns. They quickly withdrew after losing twelve of their number.

With the defeat of these tanks the division was routed.

Giraud attempted to concentrate his remaining armor but found it impossible given the confusion of the battle and the speed with which the Germans were moving. Instead local commanders committed them piece meal in regiment or brigade strength only to see them chewed up.

Gun lines were formed with both antitank guns and the field artillery. These achieved some temporary successes until Ju 87s were directed to pound them. Though the French had antiaircraft units on hand no one thought about placing them beside the improvised defense lines. The infantry had no small arms that were effective against armor and so each time the guns pulled back they retreated too.

Guderian’s attack was simply coming too fast for Giraud to counter.

By the time nightfall came he had only sixty five tanks still operational and less that one hundred artillery pieces. Recognizing he was defeated he ordered the army to disengage and withdraw south in the direction of Epirnay and the Marne. The lines were now irreparably broken but this would at least shield Paris, the beating heart of France.

It left virtually no troops between Guderian and the French coast line.
 
Last edited:
The World Turned Upside Down


May 2, 1940

Chamberlain was back in London following a short visit to Paris.

If Reynaud had been panicked by the original defeat he was now completely beaten.

“We have lost the war,” Reynaud had told him. “We are beaten.”

Chamberlain tried to convince his that this could not be so. It was simply impossible that the French army could be defeated this quickly. They had suffered a reverse and a setback obviously, but he refused to admit the war was lost. Surely the French and British armies could not be routed as easily as the Poles!

Gamelin had then explained the military situation.

The front in the Ardennes had been completely torn open. The Germans were driving to the west through both Belgium and northern France in great strength. The forces covering Paris and still manning the Maginot Line were now isolated and of no help to the forces in Belgium.

Chamberlain had asked the Commander and Chief of the Allied forces what he intended to do.

“We must attack and reform the line,” Gamelin had said with no enthusiasm what so ever. “Belgium is lost. Our only hope is to have our forces there drive south as we push north. If we can link up we can reform the front. If not…” The general shrugged as if to weary to say any more.

“King Leopold will not agree to the Belgian army withdrawing from Belgian soil.” Chamberlain pointed out.

“We do not have the strength to maintain a front in Belgium.”

“Perhaps we can help the Belgians hold onto a corner of their country while we reform the front to the south. I do not wish to abandon them as we were forced to abandon Poland.”

Gamelin had looked at him with weary and disinterred eyes. “What one wishes to do and what one can do are often two very different things Prime Minister.”

“Quite,” Chamberlain said. “Tell me general how soon can you launch an attack northwards to relieve the pressure?”

“Six days, more likely seven.”

Not being a military expert Chamberlain held his tongue, but given the rate the Germans were advancing he though six days might be much too late. He did not understand why his side could not move with the same speed and effectiveness as the enemy.

XXX

That had been yesterday.

Today he had learned that Gamelin had been removed from the command and replaced with General Maxime Weygand. The seventy three year old general was not in France yet; he had been in Syria and was still en route. He had already ordered the limited counter attacks Gamelin had planned to be cancelled. Before the new supreme commander endorsed a course of action he wanted to meet his field commanders and form an impression of them as well the British and Belgian allies.

Chamberlain admitted that was only sensible, but in the meanwhile more time was being lost.

He was in a situation room overlooking a vast map of the Low Countries and northern France. The situation was worsening by the hour but he refused to admit it was a disaster even if the press and the Liberals were beginning to use that word.

Due to pressure from the King and from his own Conservative Party he had been forced to invite Anthony Eden into his inner cabinet. Eden had replaced Leslie Hore-Belisha as Secretary of State for War. Chamberlain fully understood that if he were forced to resign Eden would be the one to replace him.

He had been determined to fulfill his duty and see this war through to final victory, but for the first time he had to admit he might not be able to. If they suffered a major defeat they would blame him.

Liege was lost as was Antwerp and Lord Gort had informed him that Brussels would fall as well today. The Commander of the British Expeditionary Force was already suggesting that they might need to abandon the French and Belgians and withdraw from the Channel ports.

Chamberlain absolutely refused to consider it. Such a disgraceful retreat would destroy their reputation throughout the entire world. It would mean abandoning the French and Belgians. It would also mean the end of his Chancellorship. For political reasons as well as reasons of prestige he would not permit the BEF to run away.

The key was time. The Germans had gotten a step ahead of them and they were having trouble matching them. However Chamberlain refused to believe the Germans were that much ahead of the game. He did not forget that at the very beginning of the Great War the Kaiser’s armies had looked invincible and swept all before them. That was until they reached their limit and were stopped at the Marne.


The same would happen here.

Yes, for the moment, they seemed unbeatable. However every step forward meant a step away from their supply lines. Meant more troops left behind to guard communications and occupy ground. Just as in the last war the attackers would grow weaker the further they advanced. Meanwhile with the Royal Navy in complete control of the Channel their own supply lines were secure and their logistics would improve as they fell back towards the coast.

The key thing was to keep fighting until the enemy reached his limit.

Chamberlain was loathe to interfere with military operations, in general he thought it was best to let the professionals have their way in things, there were times where political needs had to come first.

He would order Lord Gort to cease retreating and make a stand with his allies. He must not think of escape but rather focus on holding his ground at all costs. They had to fight to gain time to restore the front. The battle cry would not be, ‘To the Sea’ but rather ‘Hold the Line!’

If they just stopped retreating he was sure the Germans could be halted long enough to let the French restore things.
 
A Stand


After swift telephone conversations with King Leopold the second and members of the Belgian General Staff it was agreed that the Allies would make a stand on the Shelde river with the aim of holding a perimeter around Ghent. The hope was that even if the southern part of the German offensive temporarily cut off allied forces in Belgium a ‘pocket’ could be held there that would be supplied by sea and tie up vast numbers of German troops. This would relieve the pressure on France, weaken the Germans, and buy the precious time needed for the promised attack that would restore the Marne.

To Neville Chamberlain the idea of the pocket was a temporary solution aimed at disrupting the German plans, buying time, and most importantly keeping the Belgians in the war. Though King Leopold had made no clear statements to the contrary there were indications and signs of defeatism. During their telephone conversations Leopold had stressed the need to defend Belgian soil and reminded Chamberlain that even through the darkest days of the Great War his father had always managed to hold at least a small piece of sovereign soil.

Chamberlain promised the King his government would do everything in its power to maintain Belgian troops on Belgian soil.

XXX

May 3, 1940

Record of telephone conversation between British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and Commander of the British Expeditionary Force Lord Gort.

Gort: Prime Minister I must protest most strongly this interference with military operations. The situation is growing critical and this is not the time for it.

Chamberlain: I understand the situation Commander, however political considerations must take precedence. We cannot afford to lose the Belgians. Things will be much harder for us if we lose their twenty two divisions.

Gort: They will be a good bit harder if we are all trapped here. The Hun are almost to the coast. We need to make for the Channel and begin plans for extraction.

Chamberlain: I refuse to abandon Belgium.

(There is a long pause.)

Gort: Prime Minister once we are cut off from France we shall begin to run short of supplies.

Chamberlain: The Admiralty assures me that they can keep you well supplied by sea.

Gort: At least until all the ports are taken.

Chamberlain: I am certain that will not occur. You need only hold firm until the enemy is exhausted. We shall then have the chance to reform the front.

Gort: Prime Minister I do not believe you understand just how precarious our position is. We are being attacked by a superior foe and are about to be cut off from the south. For the time being retreat is the only alternative. We must escape to fight again another day.

Chamberlain: We have retreated enough and I will not countenance abandoning our allies. You will make a defensive stand along the Shelde and stop the enemy there.

Gort: We may stop some of the enemy there but not all of them.

Chamberlain: Your forces are much too strong to be completely defeated in the field. So long as we hold open the coast keeping your pocket supplied will be no problem at all.

Gort: Prime Minister if we are cut off I fear the whole army will perish.

Chamberlain: We will not allow that to happen. Hold firm and maintain the front until the French can relieve you.

XXX

May 4, 1940

On the following day elements of the First Panzer division reached Abbeville cutting off the forces to the north. Guderian then began a movement north along the coast to capture the ports. This effort was opposed by the battered French Second Army as well as by Belgian forces.

In Paris the new Allied Supreme Commander had decided that the troops in Belgium should attack south in coordination with an attack north. His main difficulty was in trying to assemble the forces to attack north while at the same time trying to organize a break out to the south. The situation in Belgium was confused and hard to get a handle on. The French armies were being pressed hard and struggling just to stay ahead of the Germans. Communications with field commanders were difficult and at times impossible. It was difficult to see how the divisions could be concentrated for a breakout.

There was then the fact that his allies, the British and Belgians, were insisting the French join them in making a stand. Weygand opposed this and instead wanted them to aid in the hoped for breakout.

May 5, 1940

The Allies win a victory in what is called the battle of the River Shelde.

All attempts by the Germans to cross the river are thrown back. Following what seems like an endless series of defeats and retreats the victory is shouted to the skies in the Allied papers. The entire advance through northern Belgium has been halted; from the Dutch border to the south of Ghent. The effect of British morale cannot be understated. The victory is compared to the Miracle of the Marne. Public opinion is nearly universal that the worst is now over. The Germans have now been checked and the situation will stabilize.

The few voices warning of the danger from the continued advance in the south and along the coast are ignored.

Neville Chamberlain’s popularity enjoys a boost both with the general public and his own party.

May 11, 1940

While Allied forces continue to hold strong on the Schelde line Calais and Dunkirk are both captured.

The bulk of Army Group A which attacked in the Ardennes is now driving northward towards the Dutch coast in an effort to capture the last major port in Allied hands at Ostend.


 
With no Churchill the entire lead up to war would be different.
Hell WW1 would have gone different even with no Gallipoli.
Would be better if you just have him get into an accident in the late 30s.
 
Top