What if China Remained a Seafaring Nation?

Zheng He is perhaps the most celebrated Chinese Muslim explorer and admiral, and during the early decades of the 15th century headed a vast fleet with both merchants as well as soldiers, is said to have reached even as far as the eastern coast of Africa. Think of him as China's version of Christopher Columbus.

China under the Ming dynasty eventually turned away from voyages of exploration and allowed its fleet to rot and wither, as well as issuing the hai jin, which banned all maritime activities, which effectively destroyed the economy of settlements along the coast. This ban was continued under the Qing dynasty.

Suppose that China remained a seafaring empire, and developed at a pace equal to (or even greater than) that of Europe. How much would this have changed what actually happened in OTL?
 
The interesting question is not 'when will the great fleets of invioncible Zheng He sail into Cadiz and colonise Europe?", it is - what will this scenario really end up looking like?

With Chinese warships still at sea, it will be much harder for Europeans to behave the way they usually did in their waters. Now, realistically 'their waters' go about as far as Kamchatka, the Philippines and Burma. They could technically sail all the way to East Africa and technically much farther, but they didn't routinely do so. The voyages of Zheng He were not exploratory ventures, they were diplomatic missions (Chinese Muslims had been making Haj for many generations before him, and by sea).

That means a lot of the world's oceans will still end up belonging to the Europeans because nobody elsae, except maybe the Ottomans and the Mughals, have a chance of stopping them in the long run. But the Chinese navy will keep what was called the 'countrs trade' open to non-Europeans much longer, and Chinese traders will be in a much better position to earn revenue. Also, the ineitable clashes (European sailors tended to shoot first and ask questions later in those days) might well spur technological development on the part of the Chinese and possibly even change the way the Europeans build their warships. IN an extreme scenario, you could turn China into an expanding sea power in the Indian Ocean. More likely it will still fall behind, but not by as much, and the Europeans will think of China with more respect and less 'Othering'.
 
Zheng He does reach the Americas

Zheng He's ships would have definately reached the Americas and China would have been trading with East Africa and the Americas before Spain and Portugal began their voyages of discovery.

The European powers would probably come into conflict with China. In the long term, China would not have been subject to invasions from European countries or Japan and colonies such as Hong Kong, Wei Hei Wei, Macao and the puppet regime in Manchuria wouldn't have been set up
 

Faraday Cage

Forgetting Chinese colonization of the Americas, if they followed the edge of Africa and got to Europe couldn't they trade directly without the Middle-Eastern middlemen and reap incredible profits?

Of course just because Zheng He got to the Cape of Africa doesn't mean traders would want to, and the Chinese government was more interested in patronizing foreign rulers than actually making a profit in their official explorations, IIRC.
 
Forgetting Chinese colonization of the Americas, if they followed the edge of Africa and got to Europe couldn't they trade directly without the Middle-Eastern middlemen and reap incredible profits?

Such a scenario might actually delay the discovery of the Americas for a very long time.
If both Europe and China are happily making profits by trading with each other through African trade routes then there will never be a need to travel west to reach the East (or vice versa). Thus you could delay its discovery for a while.

There might be a few incidents in which explorers/traders bump into the Americas. Some Portuguese ending up accidentally in Brazil or a few Chinese who venture too far into the south Pacific, etc. But such events might actually be shrugged off and not given serious though. This is of course for a limited time once both China and Europe realize it a whole new continent they will all want a piece of it.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Europe as colonies. :D

Zheng He? Chinese Columbus? Why, alert the presses, I have never heard of such an idea!!!!!

Give him a break, guys. He's new.

If Europe (Portugal and Spain) are trying to find a way to purchase the spices of the east that doesn't rely on the ruinously expensive overland route, it seems like that a continued Chinese sea presence could result in a mutually beneficial trading relationship, perhaps centered on trading depots in East Africa (Zanzibar, perhaps) or southern India.

This does not necessarily derail Europe's coming dominance, as the Renaissance was already underway and the intellectual energies it unleashed would eventually give birth to the Scientific Revolution, which is what really gave the West its power over the next few centuries.

And it doesn't necessarily derail Europe's coming conquest of the Americas, as there would always be ambitious men in Europe seeking to circumvent the middlemen and would still try to get at the spices directly by sailing west.

The notion of China colonizing the New World seems remote to me. Such suggestions usually come from the "History Is Really Just a Big Game of Risk" school, which is nonsense. There is not much in the Chinese cultural mindset that would be conducive to a colonial mindset. Indeed, China ha traditionally seen little of value outside their own borders, except useful foreigners who foolishly trade gold and silver for cheap items like tea and porcelain.
 
With Chinese warships still at sea, it will be much harder for Europeans to behave the way they usually did in their waters. Now, realistically 'their waters' go about as far as Kamchatka, the Philippines and Burma. They could technically sail all the way to East Africa and technically much farther, but they didn't routinely do so. The voyages of Zheng He were not exploratory ventures, they were diplomatic missions (Chinese Muslims had been making Haj for many generations before him, and by sea).

I'm not so sure I agree with you. After all, Zhen He did set up an outpost at or near Malacca; IMO it's no reason this couldn't become permanent. Moreover, the 18th century saw a pretty big trade with Bengal, carried by European intermediaries (cotton, notably). I could see this taking off earlier, with the region becoming a monocrop economy for the Ming industrial involution.

It's not entirely clear to me, though, why China would fall behind.
 
Forgetting Chinese colonization of the Americas, if they followed the edge of Africa and got to Europe couldn't they trade directly without the Middle-Eastern middlemen and reap incredible profits?

It doesn't work the same the other way around - the Europeans had markets, and went in search of products whilst the Chinese had products and would be wanting markets.

If you know what will sell you can take huge risks to go and get it and venture capitalists to fund it (and you take it by force if the producer isn't willing to share), but if you have products you won't take huge risks to go somewhere where they might not want what you're selling and might have nothing to trade either.

Chinese controlled emperioums in Malaya, India and East Africa that the Europeans get regularly fleeced at would be much more likely IMO.
 
The notion of China colonizing the New World seems remote to me. Such suggestions usually come from the "History Is Really Just a Big Game of Risk" school, which is nonsense. There is not much in the Chinese cultural mindset that would be conducive to a colonial mindset. Indeed, China ha traditionally seen little of value outside their own borders, except useful foreigners who foolishly trade gold and silver for cheap items like tea and porcelain.

Not necessarily, as we can see with the missions of Zheng He if the Ming Dynasty stayed on a path of outward expression and sea power then China would seek to expand its already expansive hegamonic empire at this time period. The most likely candidates would be the Inca and whoever would win in Mesoamerica (Aztecs, Tlaxcallans, or Tarascans). Why go through the European and Muslim middlemen? They would influence the american empires as much as possible. Why do you think Zheng He had somany soldiers on his expeditions?

The US West Coast the Chinese would not find anything of value to their Empire, but certainly Chinese, Korean, and Japanese fishermen and merchants would. The abundance of the Pacific Northwest would be more then enough to lure over a slew of people, probably set up a few small fishing settlements on the west coast. Make good with cleaning out the natives and getting sucha wealth of natural abundance. Though when things get violent (I'm looking at you Haida) its a wonder what a well placed and well influentical fishing merchant could do to encourage the Ming officals to help protect his interests.....

Going farther down the coast to Mesoamerica the Middle Kingdom will find what they want in plenty, a market to flood Chinese goods and LOTS of gold and silver.

Though the whole basis of the Zheng He and China Seapower is a total shift away from the Neoconfucist and "Forbidden Kingdom" because it is at this point in history that the former two ideas and themes take root fostering the Isolationist image. The Hongxi Emperor was the one who set up China's future isolationism, the Yongle was just continued the expansion of Imperial Power. The Ming dynasty was a notable era after the Yongle Emperor of being ont he defensive. Very few territorial expansions, while in the following Manchu and preceding the Ming we see the Chinese state ever increasing. Look at the Tang Dynasty! They stretched into Central Asia.

The Chinese of course will continue to look as their people and culture as being superior, so did the Romans and that did not stop them from expanding.
 
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Not necessarily, as we can see with the missions of Zheng He if the Ming Dynasty stayed on a path of outward expression and sea power then China would seek to expand its already expansive hegamonic empire at this time period.

Ah, but was the empire truly profitable? If it had been, it would have been sustained; instead most records suggest it was a loss.

IMO it's actually possible to tweak it so it is profitable, but this requires the Ming focusing on controlling Malacca and the spice islands.

The US West Coast the Chinese would not find anything of value to their Empire, but certainly Chinese, Korean, and Japanese fishermen and merchants would.

Jade. Then, gold.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Not necessarily, as we can see with the missions of Zheng He if the Ming Dynasty stayed on a path of outward expression and sea power then China would seek to expand its already expansive hegamonic empire at this time period.

I think you're exaggerating the importance of Zheng He's expeditions. They were not expanding the Chinese Empire at all, which really wasn't into expansion. They were basically curiosity-driven voyages, designed to collect assurances from the states in the region that they acknowledged Chinese hegemony.

You did not see any actual Chinese control over the said states, nor did you see boatloads of Chinese colonists ready to set up Chinese versions of Jamestown and Plymouth Rock around the Indian Ocean.
 
I think you're exaggerating the importance of Zheng He's expeditions. They were not expanding the Chinese Empire at all, which really wasn't into expansion. They were basically curiosity-driven voyages, designed to collect assurances from the states in the region that they acknowledged Chinese hegemony.

You did not see any actual Chinese control over the said states, nor did you see boatloads of Chinese colonists ready to set up Chinese versions of Jamestown and Plymouth Rock around the Indian Ocean.

Thats the point of a Hegmonic Empire, the native government paying tribute to the foreign government. The basis of it is to have an aknowledged overlordship or aknowledged supremacy and to be able to extert influence on another country. The expeditions were to ensure and more or less coerce powers visited with an awesome display of the Ming's might. Which was certainly achieved for a time.

Actually, you did with several "Chinatowns" set up by Zheng He on his expeditions to these countries-and certainly they would be able to influence local politics with a sizable population of Chinese much like we see with Singapore.

Thats because the visited areas by Zheng He were already densely populated and governed by some form of political government.

I certainly could see more or a Jamestown rather then a Plymouth coming out in the Americas. If not then its possible that it could be an option for Merchants, Reformists, refugees (fleeing Famine) and etc fleeing oppression and the natural disasters that rocked China in the Ming time period. If the Americas were discovered and word of a primative sort of people beyond any local groups maybe Chinese or Japanese pirates could move in....

Though I stand that if the Americas were discovered even if the Chinese Imperial government was not interested on a commoner level it would drawn interests. For Jade or SIlver seekers porbably least likely but mostly for fishermen (The Pacific Northwest area is a overly, overly, overly abundant area of 'natural resources'). You would see not long Junks sailing up with Native American Canoes for fishing and some trade. It would also be logical for any fishermen (or whoever else) were to go to the area for a long time period would set up a semi-perm. settlement along the west coast.

I point out again during this time period, Japan is going through its Sengoku Period, which was also a time marked by a rise in Japanese Piracy and most likely refuggees fleeing the violence (wheather they be just common people or some noble house that has had its power crushed during the events of the civil war) who may look to a bountiful place as a good area to at least wait out the violence and live in peace or exile.

Taking into account Refugees from China and Japan the most ideal place would be the Chinatowns set up by Zheng He or the newly discovered and lax controlled American West Coast becuase those would be the only places to go. Japanese refugees would not be welcomed in China or Korea and vice versa for Chinese refugees. The best palces to go would be the 'Chinatowns', but there they also could be mistreated by the local majority populance and rulers (Especially if they were some group like the White Lotus, who could feel betrayed by the founder of the Ming dynasty for throwing off his beliefs to gain favor with the Confucians) so the best place would be a place without any authority. The Americas.

Hmmm The White Lotus could found a 'Plymouth' on the west coast....possible timeline there....
 
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I'm not so sure I agree with you. After all, Zhen He did set up an outpost at or near Malacca; IMO it's no reason this couldn't become permanent. Moreover, the 18th century saw a pretty big trade with Bengal, carried by European intermediaries (cotton, notably). I could see this taking off earlier, with the region becoming a monocrop economy for the Ming industrial involution.

It's not entirely clear to me, though, why China would fall behind.

That is a scenario I actually think fairly likely. The East Indies can be turned into a Chinese lake at that point. What I doubt is thatz we wioll see Chinese domination of East Africa, the american west Coast, oceania, or for that matter India and Europe. And the problem is, if the Europeans do come to control America and its resources, they still get a huge leg up.

Of course the Chinese may well decide that if they have this expensive white elephant of a navy, it might as well make itself useful discovering places once the hear of the Americas.
 
Hmmm...

Assuming China discovers the friggin' metric assloads of gold and silver and best of all blue jungle jade (there's gotta be some Yang in that stuff!) the Aztecs have for trade, then I can see the real need for some small colonies at least as resupply/refit depots. I'd assume such resupply colonies in *San Fransisco (they may even think they've found the ancient Fusang trees when they see redwoods! :p) or *San Diego, possibly even *Pearl Harbor assuming someone finds Hawaii attempting a dangerous over-ocean journey rather than just trace up Kamchatka and the Aleutians and down the PNW coast.

Sound like an idea I had for the Fun with Cryptohistory TL plan. :cool:
 
That is a scenario I actually think fairly likely. The East Indies can be turned into a Chinese lake at that point. What I doubt is thatz we wioll see Chinese domination of East Africa, the american west Coast, oceania, or for that matter India and Europe. And the problem is, if the Europeans do come to control America and its resources, they still get a huge leg up.

Of course the Chinese may well decide that if they have this expensive white elephant of a navy, it might as well make itself useful discovering places once the hear of the Americas.

Of course noone ever thinks they may actually downsize their navy but keep it potent/effective. Infact in one of my own TLs I had something like that happens. Those who follow the Yongle Emperor's stead they make a compromise between the Merchants and Neo-Confuscists. The Treasure Fleets are broken down somewhat-smaller ships, less grandoise- and focus on trading while exploration is fueled mostly by prospective merchants with some imperial aid. As such after Zheng He is dead Chinese explorermerchants make their way into Polynesia and extend Chinese influence all the way to Hawaii! Where one merchant fleet eventually gets swept down to Mesoamerica and discovers the Aztecs

If they found the Maori they would definitly call them the WenShenguo! Tattoo Country!
 
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Actually I think the general course of history wont change that much. The reason being while the Ming maritime age can be lengthened, at the end of the day China is a land power. A land power have too many commitments on land, and while China may remain a powerful sea power, I don't see it trying to create a global empire just for the jollies.

What does a Chinese sea power look like? First what does China need? It has everything it needs, and what it doesn't have are all available in the East Indies. This area will likely gradually become China's overseas empire. Peripherally, India and Arabia has much to offer as well so China will maintain trade in the Indian ocean.

Chinese ships may reach the Americas, but the trip is much further than for the Europeans. Anything of value will seem less tempting as a consequence. They will be disdainful of half naked stone age people. Unlike the Europeans, the Chinese have no incentive to convert them into Confuciansts. Limited trade may take place, but that would be as far as it would go.

I believe the Chinese will dominate maritime trade in the 15th through 16th centuries. Europeans traders after spice will have to buy it from Chinese traders in the Indian Ocean at marked up prices. Attempts by the Portuguese to make colonial in-roads in the Indian Ocean will be thwarted. The Chinese may even deliver goods to Europe itself.

This situation will force European traders to seek an alternative trade route to Asia, which in our times was dominated by the Portuguese and in this timeline by the Chinese. They will sail west and find the Americas. Eventually the Americas will be colonized and its wealth exploited to transform Europe into a peer competitor with the Chinese Empire.

The main difference from OTL would be the lack of European colonies in the Indian Ocean region and East Asia. That East Asia, and particularly China would see high levels of trade and cultural links with Europe since the 16th century.

The world will be very different, but not unrecognizable. Europeans will still colonize the Americas, and China and India would be great powers along side European and American powers. History completes the circle.
 
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