What if China joined in the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 ?

If China had entered the Indo-Pakistani war of 1965, the results would include:

  • War a few days/weeks longer, same territorial outcome as OTL (no change)

    Votes: 4 17.4%
  • China wins the Northeast frontier agency, no other change

    Votes: 1 4.3%
  • China wins the NEFA, and Pakistan wins Kashmir

    Votes: 4 17.4%
  • Soviet Union intervenes on India's side, with aid and advisors and pilots

    Votes: 5 21.7%
  • Soviet Union intervenes on India's side, by invading China

    Votes: 1 4.3%
  • United States intervenes on India's side, with aid and advisors and pilots

    Votes: 2 8.7%
  • United States does preemptive strike against China's nukes

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • China performs worse against India than in 1962

    Votes: 1 4.3%
  • If the result is a Sino-Soviet war, US ultimately escalates less in Vietnam

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • If the result is a Sino-Soviet war, US ultimately escalates more in Vietnam

    Votes: 1 4.3%
  • Afghanistan joins in against Pakistan on the Indian side

    Votes: 2 8.7%
  • If the result is a Sino-American war in India, US escalates less in Vietnam

    Votes: 1 4.3%
  • If result is a Sino=American war in India, US escalates more in Vietnam

    Votes: 1 4.3%
  • If a superpower sides with India, Bangladesh ends up broken off during the war

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    23

raharris1973

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According to historian John Garver, Mao prepared to encouraged the Pakistanis to keep fighting once the fighting turned against them, and offered to come into the fight on Pakistan's side. The Pakistani leadership did not take him up on the offer.

What if Mao were a little more forward leaning and entered the fight some days before any cease-fire was agreed to in September 1965. The war did not come as a surprise to Beijing and there had been prior coordination, so the PRC could have had some of its border forces somewhat ready.

The situation would be ripe for escalation from there.

On the one hand, extra numbers and an extra front would be bad for India.

On the other hand, I think that Indian forces had woken up to a degree and improved their readiness on the Sino-Soviet border since the 1962 war.

Also, I don't know if the PRC forces were at the same, better, or worse quality in 65 compared to 62 - There was awfulness in turn-of-the decade China that could have rubbed off onto the forces by then. On the other hand, since the worst of it peaked in 62, maybe the PLA would be recovered.

If it is limited to these three combatants, India, China and Pakistan, what is the likely outcome of the conflict?

But, could yet more combatants join in, in a 1914 style chain reaction?

For instance, both the USSR and the USA could be quite alarmed at the prospect of a Chinese victory here, and may feel it necessary to prop up India to deny China a victory.

A USSR-PRC war could escalate to major operations, attempts at a disarming strike against China's nukes, or larger nuclear war. A US intervention could theoretically result in US airstrikes on China, possibly including strikes focused on eliminating China's nukes.

If there were escalation to involvement by either superpower, what would be the global effects?
For instance, on US, USSR and PRC handling of the Vietnam War

How would South Asian actors react in a wider or longer war, for instance Afghanistan (which had claims on Pakistan, but hardly any armed strength) and the Awami League in East Pakistan (the later Bangladesh). What about more guerrilla warfare or uprisings in Tibet?

Your thoughts please.
 
I can't see the US backing up India at this time - IIRC the US was already leaning into Pakistan's camp. On the other hand, China has always confused the US and USSR both when it comes to ideology and geopolitics.

I'd be interested to hear more about this from someone with more knowledge of the region/period.
 

raharris1973

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I can't see the US backing up India at this time - IIRC the US was already leaning into Pakistan's cam

Well actually in OTL's war the US reacted by halting aid to both Pakistan and India. US-Pakistani defense relations went on hiatus until the Nixon Administration and the "tilt" of 1971.

*if* the US were to back up India at this time (and the US did a few years earlier with emergency aid during the Sino-Indian war of 1962) I think it would be focused on aiding her front against China, while not directly engaging against or provisioning forces facing the Pakistanis.
 
China didn't have much in the way of long range strike aircraft or blue water naval vessels at the time. The Chinese-Indian Border is the Himalayas right? Much like 62 the Chinese can spank the Indians in the mountains but the ability to actually invade Northern India seems pretty minimal.

The Chinese Pakistani border is also pretty godawful and the only Highway wasn't open til 1966.

So the best the Chinese could do would be to provide logistical support sent through neutrals, get the Maoists in India to get a bit more active, and start a brutal slog in the Himalayas.
 
China didn't have much in the way of long range strike aircraft or blue water naval vessels at the time. The Chinese-Indian Border is the Himalayas right? Much like 62 the Chinese can spank the Indians in the mountains but the ability to actually invade Northern India seems pretty minimal.

The Chinese Pakistani border is also pretty godawful and the only Highway wasn't open til 1966.

So the best the Chinese could do would be to provide logistical support sent through neutrals, get the Maoists in India to get a bit more active, and start a brutal slog in the Himalayas.


Pretty much. China can at best be a nuisance in the Himalayas and not much of one. Meanwhile, India enjoys the central position, an excellent rail net and the larger army and economy. India can concentrate on either East or West Pakistan, destroy them and move on the other. The Pakistani position is hopeless
 

raharris1973

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The Soviets are going to start applying a large amount of pressure on China to back off.

Probably. By December the hopes of the post-Khrushchev leadership for a rapprochment with China had been trampled by the Chinese.

What about the Americans applying pressure on China?

The Chinese Pakistani border is also pretty godawful and the only Highway wasn't open til 1966.

Well even if they did not have a road to Pakistan they had regular military traffic through ladakh between Xinjiang an Tibet over the road they built in the 50s. so they could mount attacks on indian ladakh from that road in addition to whatever tactical air or airlift they could usefully employ. I don't see how a Chinese invvasion of the NEFA in eastern India is impossible either. they invaded bfore and were the indians that much better fortified in 65 compared to 62? i do not see how this will not at least result in Chinese occupation of the NEFA and giving the Indians a good scare about the saafety of the Siliguri corridor, less tha 50 km from the PRC border.

Siliguri corridor, aka "chicken's neck"
chickens-neck-India.jpg
 
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