What if Chiang did not escalate the fighting in Shanghai and focused on resisting in north China ?

raharris1973

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-Does China do better or worse? When does large-scale fighting reach locations like Shanghai and Nanjing?
 
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raharris1973

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I would argue China does worse.

On the one hand, Shanghai and Nanking are spared war damage for a few weeks or months longer.

On the other hand, in sending his best Divisions to stem the Japanese tide in northern China, they are more vulnerable to encirclement and defeat in detail, while the Japanese, in the open terrain rather than dense urban terrain, can do more damage and gain more territory while suffering lower losses to themselves compared to OTL's nasty battle of Shanghai.

The Japanese will still occupy Northern China in weeks to months. Once they have done that, a less damaged Japanese force has more flexibility and mobility in its approach to the Yangtze river cities against still depleted Chinese Nationalist forces. From bases in north central China, the Japanese could conceivably even take Wuhan or Nanjing from the north, possibly cutting off Chinese ability to do orderly retreats from one capital to another by going upriver.
 
I don't know the details about the situation at the time, but my understanding is that the Japanese were primarily interested in establishing control over North China, not escalating to total war. Chiang's offensive against Japanese forces in Shanghai turned what was supposed to be a relatively leisurely IJA march through Hebei and Shandong into the bloody campaign up the Yangtze and the 8 years of war that followed.

A limited kahoku jihen (i.e. a "North China Incident", rather than the historical "China Incident") would definitely be of great value to the Japanese military. They would get the historical source of raw coolie labor they needed to match Manchurian resources, and perhaps without a total war to go with it.

As for Chiang, it's a profound embarrassment, far worse than the loss of Manchuria. KMT troops (as opposed to Zhang Xueliang's warlord rabble) getting trounced in the field would be a devastating blow to overall morale and Chiang's political prestige. As you mention, the Japanese would have an easier time defeating the Chinese on the North China Plain; this means they take fewer casualties and maintain high fighting spirit. Should the battles in North China escalate to their OTL conclusion (as they might, given that otherwise Chiang would be totally humiliated as the leader of China if he made peace again) Japan would be in a better position to take Shanghai and Nanjing, meaning that they would advance faster and further.
 
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Another observation: the OTL KMT's choice to fight in cities may mirror the Chinese castling strategy of ancient times that was used to blunt the advantages in cavalry warfare enjoyed by nomadic invaders.
 

raharris1973

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I don't know the details about the situation at the time, but my understanding is that the Japanese were primarily interested in establishing control over North China, not escalating to total war. Chiang's offensive against Japanese forces in Shanghai turned what was supposed to be a relatively leisurely IJA march through Hebei and Shandong into the bloody campaign up the Yangtze and the 8 years of war that followed.

A limited kahoku jihen (i.e. a "North China Incident", rather than the historical "China Incident") would definitely be of great value to the Japanese military. They would get the historical source of raw coolie labor they needed to match Manchurian resources, and perhaps without a total war to go with it.

As for Chiang, it's a profound embarrassment, far worse than the loss of Manchuria. KMT troops (as opposed to Zhang Xueliang's warlord rabble) getting trounced in the field would be a devastating blow to overall morale and Chiang's political prestige. As you mention, the Japanese would have an easier time defeating the Chinese on the North China Plain; this means they take fewer casualties and maintain high fighting spirit. Should the battles in North China escalate to their OTL conclusion (as they might, given that otherwise Chiang would be totally humiliated as the leader of China if he made peace again) Japan would be in a better position to take Shanghai and Nanjing, meaning that they would advance faster and further.

If the Japanese secure North China by early 1938 in mobile campaigns, and if Chiang, for political reasons, refuses to admit any losses and keeps throwing troops against the Chinese, might the Japanese go for a simultaneous set of offensives against Wuhan and Nanjing, or Wuhan and Guangzhou?
 
If the Japanese secure North China by early 1938 in mobile campaigns, and if Chiang, for political reasons, refuses to admit any losses and keeps throwing troops against the Chinese, might the Japanese go for a simultaneous set of offensives against Wuhan and Nanjing, or Wuhan and Guangzhou?
I'm not well-versed in terrain and military theories, so either would be my guess. In 1932 the Japanese Navy tried to follow up the 918 incident with an invasion of Shanghai. ITTL an invasion of Guangzhou might be driven by the same mentality.

I also think the Japanese would try to go for Nanjing over Wuhan, given the former's prestige as the ROC capital.
 

raharris1973

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If the Japanese were beating the ChiNat in battles in North China for many months with the fights for cities further south significantly delayed, I wonder what the Japanese will do in northern China. Would they want to venture west beyond Shansi province to occupy Yenan and crush the Communists there?

Without the ChiNats being in an early slugfest for Shanghai, the Soviets might feel more worried that they or Outer Mongoolia are the near term target of Japanese plans. Could this make the Soviets inclined to get more involved against Japan?.
 
If the Japanese were beating the ChiNat in battles in North China for many months with the fights for cities further south significantly delayed, I wonder what the Japanese will do in northern China. Would they want to venture west beyond Shansi province to occupy Yenan and crush the Communists there?

Without the ChiNats being in an early slugfest for Shanghai, the Soviets might feel more worried that they or Outer Mongoolia are the near term target of Japanese plans. Could this make the Soviets inclined to get more involved against Japan?.
Not really. The Soviets would support and supply the Nationalists like OTL but not make an overt move against the Japanese. Stalin would wait for an opportunity, as he always did.
 
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