When Ming dynasty China collapsed under the weight of internal woes and external threat from the invading Manchurians, Cheng Chen Kong led his force to Taiwan, where he used the island as a base to attempt the restoration of the Ming. But he died too young, and his son was too weak to continue his father's project.
I explore the scenario where Cheng lived much longer, and what might have happened. At first, Cheng's focus was to restore the Ming dynasty. But as Manchurian dynasty's authority became firmly entrenched in Mainland China, Cheng realized that Ming's restoration was no longer realistic. Therefore, abandoning that goal, Cheng decided to build a kingdom for himself based in Taiwan.
The Ching dynasty (Manchurian dynasty) under Emperor Kong Xi's enlightened regime made China again a powerful force to reckon with in Asia. But Cheng was not to be intimidated into submission. At around this time in history, European merchants were entering Asia with their guns, and canons. Instead of closing off Taiwan to the encroaching Europeans, Cheng opened Taiwan to interactions with them. European technologies, particularly weapon technologies, were introduced to Taiwan in order to fight off the Ching army and navy. Taiwan, while maintaining its Chinese culture and Confucian/Taoist/Buddhist traditions, also adopted many European institutions and practices in order to modernize its economy. By the time Cheng died, Taiwan was transformed into a powerful and prosperous kingdom with a very unique cultural heritage that blended the best of East and West.
Cheng' successor enlarged the already mighty Taiwanese navy and began to colonize the chains of island stretching from modern Phillipine and Indonesia in order to gain trading revenue from selling goods produced there to European states. The revenue was then used to build an army to colonize everything in Southeast Asia from Vietnam to Burma and everything in between.
Ching dynasty China was a close minded empire. It refused to trade with the European merchants. It also refused to carry on trading relation with Taiwan given the political rivalry. Therefore Taiwan carried on secret trading relationship with Korea, which imported goods from China, then exported to Taiwan. Taiwan re-exported those goods to Indonesia. From there, European merchants took those goods back to Europe. Under this grand policy, Taiwan essentially monopolized the position of being the go between, and reaped much economic benefits. This was another important source of revenue for raising the army needed to colonize Southeast Asia.
By the late 1700's, Taiwan's orientation was no longer strictly Mainland China. Its economic interest lies in its seafaring/trading empire, and its colonial project in Southeast Asia. But ideology still bind the political psyche of Taiwan to Mainland China. However, eventually, economic won the day, and what happens in Southeast Asia and European activities in that region of the world would capture Taiwan's attention more than Mainland China, which, under Emperor Kongxi's expansionist reign would overstretch the Ching empire to the point of bankrupting it.
As long as Ching's attention was focused on expansion into Central Asia, subduing the nomadic tribes in the north, all the while expending political resources to hold this vast empire together, Taiwan will be able to do as it wishes in Southeast Asia, and need to be concerned only with the European states.
By early 1800's, British power was firmly entrenched in India. Having just lost the vast American possessions, it was looking for compensation in Southeast Asia, and was therefore NOT pleased with Taiwan's monopolization of southeast Asia. At this time, Taiwan had not conquered southeast Asia yet, but it had spend the past several decades embedding its merchants/spies/and political institutions into the various southeast Asian kingdoms. Taiwan was in reality the master of Southeast Asian if not in name. And the British was intended on changing this reality.
The conflict between Taiwan and British empire began when the latter wished to access the ocean leading directly to China's coast. Remember Taiwan's grand strategy of importing Chinese goods from Korea, and selling them at Taiwan's Indonesian ports to the Europeans? Taiwan was able to make huge profits by marking up the price of these Chinese goods. If the British has direct access to Chinese goods, then the British can sell these goods to Europe at much lower price. But to do that, British merchant fleets would need to access the waterway leading to China's port cities. But Taiwan's navy sealed off every entries to China's port cities.
Queen Victoria sent a delegation to TaiNan, Taiwan's capital, to negotiate opening up of the water way. The Taiwanese calculation was this. Even if the British was granted access to the water of East Asia, the Ching court was ruled by traditional close minded Mandarins who would refuse to allow trading relationship with European barbarians unless the British were willing to pay tribute to Ching emperor and acknowledge China's overlordship. So the issue here wasn't that the British would have direct access to Chinese goods, and voiding Taiwan's role as middlemen. The issue is strategic. Taiwan is a seafaring empire like the British. To allow the British merchant fleet access to the water way of East Asia is strategic suicide. Moreover, the other European states will want the same access once British is granted that access. The European navy must be limited to the Indian ocean. Anything to the east of Singapore MUST be off limit.
The negotiation failed, but undeterred, the British sent another delegation the following year for another discussion on the same topic, but that also went nowhere. The British therefore explored an alternative strategy. Both Taiwan and the British were aware of Australia's existence, but while Taiwan found little value in it, the British decided to establish secret bases dotting the northern coast of Australia. From there, the British merchant fleet would sneak to Mainland Chinese port.
Taiwanese government was unaware of this at first, believing that patrolling the small passage between Singapore and Indonesia with its mighty navy will be sufficient. Therefore its navy was concentrated there mostly. Very little effort was spared to patrolling the rest of East Asian waterways. As a result, the British infiltrated the waterway of East Asia by stealth.
However, Taiwan's assumption proved correct. Ching court refused to carry on trading relationship with the British empire, and shut off port cities in China to the British merchants. Taiwan's spies planted within the Ching court sent word back to TaiNan that the British had infiltrated East Asian water from Australia. Infuriated, TaiNan sent an ultimatum for the British to stop sailing its merchant fleet in East Asia. Taiwan's fear was that the British would eventually discover the role of Korea, and seek to carry on the same trading relationship with Korea that Taiwan has been carrying on. The British obviously ignored the ultimatum, and war was declared.
Taiwan's objective was to keep the European out of East Asia and Southeast Asia's waterway. British objective was to obtain and secure permanent access to that waterway. For the British to accomplish this, the chain of Taiwanese bases that extend from Phillipine to Indonesia needs to be destroyed so that Taiwanese navy could not be able to supply itself. The Taiwanese navy itself also needs to be destroyed. British sought to do just that. The British empire poured its naval assets from all over the globe, and concentrated them at Indonesia for the ultimate showdown.
Taiwan's strategic calculation was this. It was going to let the British navy do however much damage that it wants to in Taiwan's southeast Asian ports. Those ports could be rebuilt although it would take time. Should British dispatch army to try to conquer Phillipine and Indonesian islands, there were Taiwanese army stationed there to counter the British effort. Should the British navy, after having destroyed all southeast Asian ports, enter East Asian water, Taiwan's East Asian fleet would fight the British on the high sea and protect Taiwan's shipyards at all cost. While port facilities in Indonesia and Phillipines were just that, the shipyards on Taiwan were much more important to keep so those must be protected at all cost. In addition, port facilities in Indonesia and Phillipines were replaceable by port facilities that dotted Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia. These port cities belong to indigenous kingdoms there, not Taiwan. So the British would not destroy those port facilities. But since Taiwan, as mentioned above, was in reality, the master of Southeast Asia, these Southeast Asian kingdoms would let Taiwan supply its navy there.
The Taiwanese strategy was therefore to draw the British all the way into East Asian water way, which is long way from its Indian supply base. There, the British would encounter tough Taiwanese resistance. In the meanwhile, Taiwan's Southeast Asian fleet that guarded Singapore will sail for India, the crown jewel of the British empire, and make a show of invading India. The goal is to force the British navy that was tied up in East Asia to sail back to India's defense. But having just fought Taiwan's East Asian fleet, the British would return to India vastly undersupplied. Taiwan's southeast Asian navy in India will do all it can to prevent the returning British fleet from supplying itself in India. AT the same time, Taiwan's East Asian fleet will sail for India and converge with the Southeast Asian fleet on the under-supplied British navy, and destroy it.
Taiwan's strategy worked. The British navy was destroyed. Napoleon soon heard of British defeat and seized the opportunity to intensify its effort on conquering the England. From that point on, British attention was diverted to Europe and was no longer a threat to Taiwan.
To be continued...