What if Cheng Chen Kong never died

When Ming dynasty China collapsed under the weight of internal woes and external threat from the invading Manchurians, Cheng Chen Kong led his force to Taiwan, where he used the island as a base to attempt the restoration of the Ming. But he died too young, and his son was too weak to continue his father's project.

I explore the scenario where Cheng lived much longer, and what might have happened. At first, Cheng's focus was to restore the Ming dynasty. But as Manchurian dynasty's authority became firmly entrenched in Mainland China, Cheng realized that Ming's restoration was no longer realistic. Therefore, abandoning that goal, Cheng decided to build a kingdom for himself based in Taiwan.

The Ching dynasty (Manchurian dynasty) under Emperor Kong Xi's enlightened regime made China again a powerful force to reckon with in Asia. But Cheng was not to be intimidated into submission. At around this time in history, European merchants were entering Asia with their guns, and canons. Instead of closing off Taiwan to the encroaching Europeans, Cheng opened Taiwan to interactions with them. European technologies, particularly weapon technologies, were introduced to Taiwan in order to fight off the Ching army and navy. Taiwan, while maintaining its Chinese culture and Confucian/Taoist/Buddhist traditions, also adopted many European institutions and practices in order to modernize its economy. By the time Cheng died, Taiwan was transformed into a powerful and prosperous kingdom with a very unique cultural heritage that blended the best of East and West.

Cheng' successor enlarged the already mighty Taiwanese navy and began to colonize the chains of island stretching from modern Phillipine and Indonesia in order to gain trading revenue from selling goods produced there to European states. The revenue was then used to build an army to colonize everything in Southeast Asia from Vietnam to Burma and everything in between.

Ching dynasty China was a close minded empire. It refused to trade with the European merchants. It also refused to carry on trading relation with Taiwan given the political rivalry. Therefore Taiwan carried on secret trading relationship with Korea, which imported goods from China, then exported to Taiwan. Taiwan re-exported those goods to Indonesia. From there, European merchants took those goods back to Europe. Under this grand policy, Taiwan essentially monopolized the position of being the go between, and reaped much economic benefits. This was another important source of revenue for raising the army needed to colonize Southeast Asia.

By the late 1700's, Taiwan's orientation was no longer strictly Mainland China. Its economic interest lies in its seafaring/trading empire, and its colonial project in Southeast Asia. But ideology still bind the political psyche of Taiwan to Mainland China. However, eventually, economic won the day, and what happens in Southeast Asia and European activities in that region of the world would capture Taiwan's attention more than Mainland China, which, under Emperor Kongxi's expansionist reign would overstretch the Ching empire to the point of bankrupting it.

As long as Ching's attention was focused on expansion into Central Asia, subduing the nomadic tribes in the north, all the while expending political resources to hold this vast empire together, Taiwan will be able to do as it wishes in Southeast Asia, and need to be concerned only with the European states.

By early 1800's, British power was firmly entrenched in India. Having just lost the vast American possessions, it was looking for compensation in Southeast Asia, and was therefore NOT pleased with Taiwan's monopolization of southeast Asia. At this time, Taiwan had not conquered southeast Asia yet, but it had spend the past several decades embedding its merchants/spies/and political institutions into the various southeast Asian kingdoms. Taiwan was in reality the master of Southeast Asian if not in name. And the British was intended on changing this reality.

The conflict between Taiwan and British empire began when the latter wished to access the ocean leading directly to China's coast. Remember Taiwan's grand strategy of importing Chinese goods from Korea, and selling them at Taiwan's Indonesian ports to the Europeans? Taiwan was able to make huge profits by marking up the price of these Chinese goods. If the British has direct access to Chinese goods, then the British can sell these goods to Europe at much lower price. But to do that, British merchant fleets would need to access the waterway leading to China's port cities. But Taiwan's navy sealed off every entries to China's port cities.

Queen Victoria sent a delegation to TaiNan, Taiwan's capital, to negotiate opening up of the water way. The Taiwanese calculation was this. Even if the British was granted access to the water of East Asia, the Ching court was ruled by traditional close minded Mandarins who would refuse to allow trading relationship with European barbarians unless the British were willing to pay tribute to Ching emperor and acknowledge China's overlordship. So the issue here wasn't that the British would have direct access to Chinese goods, and voiding Taiwan's role as middlemen. The issue is strategic. Taiwan is a seafaring empire like the British. To allow the British merchant fleet access to the water way of East Asia is strategic suicide. Moreover, the other European states will want the same access once British is granted that access. The European navy must be limited to the Indian ocean. Anything to the east of Singapore MUST be off limit.

The negotiation failed, but undeterred, the British sent another delegation the following year for another discussion on the same topic, but that also went nowhere. The British therefore explored an alternative strategy. Both Taiwan and the British were aware of Australia's existence, but while Taiwan found little value in it, the British decided to establish secret bases dotting the northern coast of Australia. From there, the British merchant fleet would sneak to Mainland Chinese port.

Taiwanese government was unaware of this at first, believing that patrolling the small passage between Singapore and Indonesia with its mighty navy will be sufficient. Therefore its navy was concentrated there mostly. Very little effort was spared to patrolling the rest of East Asian waterways. As a result, the British infiltrated the waterway of East Asia by stealth.

However, Taiwan's assumption proved correct. Ching court refused to carry on trading relationship with the British empire, and shut off port cities in China to the British merchants. Taiwan's spies planted within the Ching court sent word back to TaiNan that the British had infiltrated East Asian water from Australia. Infuriated, TaiNan sent an ultimatum for the British to stop sailing its merchant fleet in East Asia. Taiwan's fear was that the British would eventually discover the role of Korea, and seek to carry on the same trading relationship with Korea that Taiwan has been carrying on. The British obviously ignored the ultimatum, and war was declared.

Taiwan's objective was to keep the European out of East Asia and Southeast Asia's waterway. British objective was to obtain and secure permanent access to that waterway. For the British to accomplish this, the chain of Taiwanese bases that extend from Phillipine to Indonesia needs to be destroyed so that Taiwanese navy could not be able to supply itself. The Taiwanese navy itself also needs to be destroyed. British sought to do just that. The British empire poured its naval assets from all over the globe, and concentrated them at Indonesia for the ultimate showdown.

Taiwan's strategic calculation was this. It was going to let the British navy do however much damage that it wants to in Taiwan's southeast Asian ports. Those ports could be rebuilt although it would take time. Should British dispatch army to try to conquer Phillipine and Indonesian islands, there were Taiwanese army stationed there to counter the British effort. Should the British navy, after having destroyed all southeast Asian ports, enter East Asian water, Taiwan's East Asian fleet would fight the British on the high sea and protect Taiwan's shipyards at all cost. While port facilities in Indonesia and Phillipines were just that, the shipyards on Taiwan were much more important to keep so those must be protected at all cost. In addition, port facilities in Indonesia and Phillipines were replaceable by port facilities that dotted Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia. These port cities belong to indigenous kingdoms there, not Taiwan. So the British would not destroy those port facilities. But since Taiwan, as mentioned above, was in reality, the master of Southeast Asia, these Southeast Asian kingdoms would let Taiwan supply its navy there.

The Taiwanese strategy was therefore to draw the British all the way into East Asian water way, which is long way from its Indian supply base. There, the British would encounter tough Taiwanese resistance. In the meanwhile, Taiwan's Southeast Asian fleet that guarded Singapore will sail for India, the crown jewel of the British empire, and make a show of invading India. The goal is to force the British navy that was tied up in East Asia to sail back to India's defense. But having just fought Taiwan's East Asian fleet, the British would return to India vastly undersupplied. Taiwan's southeast Asian navy in India will do all it can to prevent the returning British fleet from supplying itself in India. AT the same time, Taiwan's East Asian fleet will sail for India and converge with the Southeast Asian fleet on the under-supplied British navy, and destroy it.

Taiwan's strategy worked. The British navy was destroyed. Napoleon soon heard of British defeat and seized the opportunity to intensify its effort on conquering the England. From that point on, British attention was diverted to Europe and was no longer a threat to Taiwan.

To be continued...
 
What.

A kingdom of Taiwan is interesting. It not being reconquered might be possible (just might). Beyond there?

No.
 
There are still muslims in Luzon in the 17th century in fact according to a conversation I had in the Facebook that there in fact there is a Sultanate that rules a part of Pangasinan and Tarlac, which I think that Brunei might use that against the Spanish as well as Palawan if the Spanish were weakened, I think the Bruneians could grant Koxinga a fief like they did to the Chinese in the LanFang Republic later in OTL.
 
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What.

A kingdom of Taiwan is interesting. It not being reconquered might be possible (just might). Beyond there?

No.

Why not?

Certainly the Philippines are ripe for conquest during this period, given the weak Spanish hold on the islands.
 
Why not?

Certainly the Philippines are ripe for conquest during this period, given the weak Spanish hold on the islands.

I don't think so, actually at the time when Koxinga was alive there is a rebellion in the Northern part of the Philippines and the Spanish were able to defeat them, so Koxinga will be defeated as well..unless that rebellion succeeds, I don't think the state established by the rebels would give land to Koxinga nor be friendly to him or accept to give him asylum and land to rule.
 
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I don't think so, actually at the time when Koxinga was alive there is a rebellion in the Northern part of the Philippines and the Spanish were able to defeat them, so Koxinga will be defeated as well..unless that rebellion succeeds.

I don't see how that's dispositive. Taiwanese aborigines also revolted against the Dutch...
 
Why not?

Certainly the Philippines are ripe for conquest during this period, given the weak Spanish hold on the islands.

That may be true. I just meant that "Beyond that, as in the rest of the stuff here?"

There's no way Taiwan is building up to be this formidable.

And mixing Queen Victoria and conquering-Napoleon together is just...I'm assuming its a mistake based on the Napoleons after "the" Napoleon.
 
The revenue was then used to build an army to colonize everything in Southeast Asia from Vietnam to Burma and everything in between.

This is where I stopped reading.
 
That may be true. I just meant that "Beyond that, as in the rest of the stuff here?"

Well, the Dutch managed to conquer the Indonesian Archipelago from further away...

Given the fairly low population density of the region, and the fact that even in OTL some tens to hundreds of thousands of Chinese moved to Southeast Asia, I could see a maritime Chinese state dominanting the Philippines and Taiwain, and playing a major role in the Straits.

Huge changes for the Qing, too. In OTL they were always wary of maritime contact,s, because Ming loyalists took to the sea. But in an ATL where there's a strong *Ming state over the water, the Qing might have to play a more assertive role in Southeast Asia.

As OTL showed, they could perform some pretty impressive campaigns over land...
 
Well, the Dutch managed to conquer the Indonesian Archipelago from further away...

Given the fairly low population density of the region, and the fact that even in OTL some tens to hundreds of thousands of Chinese moved to Southeast Asia, I could see a maritime Chinese state dominanting the Philippines and Taiwain, and playing a major role in the Straits.

Huge changes for the Qing, too. In OTL they were always wary of maritime contact,s, because Ming loyalists took to the sea. But in an ATL where there's a strong *Ming state over the water, the Qing might have to play a more assertive role in Southeast Asia.

As OTL showed, they could perform some pretty impressive campaigns over land...

But a maritime Chinese state as a Great Power as opposed to something like an eastern Netherlands (more or less)? That's a bit much.

At least given that Taiwan is going to be in danger from the mainland more than say, Britain (in this area) would be.

That's going to suck up resources.
 
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When Ming dynasty China collapsed under the weight of internal woes and external threat from the invading Manchurians, Cheng Chen Kong led his force to Taiwan, where he used the island as a base to attempt the restoration of the Ming. But he died too young, and his son was too weak to continue his father's project.

I explore the scenario where Cheng lived much longer, and what might have happened. At first, Cheng's focus was to restore the Ming dynasty. But as Manchurian dynasty's authority became firmly entrenched in Mainland China, Cheng realized that Ming's restoration was no longer realistic. Therefore, abandoning that goal, Cheng decided to build a kingdom for himself based in Taiwan.
YES!!! I love this premise. Almost did a TL about it a while back.
 
I don't see how that's dispositive. Taiwanese aborigines also revolted against the Dutch...


The main reason why the Spanish were able to get Luzon is because of what the cadet line of Bolkiahs who basically rule that dominion did they "sold" that land to the Spanish in exchange for benefits instead of fighting them, a new dynasty like the Ladia or Malong Dynasty will be different and will be more loyal and popular because the Bolkiahs were thought of as usurpers and were not popular in that land, another thing is that Brunei or the Main line of Bolkiahs still has designs on Luzon and were waiting for the Spanish to go and they still have Palawan so if the Spanish were kicked out the new rebel state that is formed could ally with Koxinga and help him because of that and a Brunei-Qing alliance could happen as well.

I think a Koxinga attack on the Spanish could result in a reverse of the what happened to Limahong and the Tondo conspiracy and the Bruneians will take advantage of the Koxinga attack and seize Luzon from the Spanish again and might even grant Koxinga some lands like they did later on which resulted in the LanFang Republic
 
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Before Koxinga can go off conquering other lands, he needs to conquer the rest of Taiwan or make alliances with the natives at the very least. Taiwan's limited resources are pretty much all located in the mountains, and Koxinga's kingdom is going to need them as well as enough land to support the population. In our timeline, the Dutch, the Spanish, Koxinga and his kingdom, and the Qing empire were not able to conquer the entire island. It took Japan nearly 30 years to completely subjugate the Taiwanese and that was with airplanes and modern weaponry. I suppose with more advanced weapons from Europe, Koxinga might be able to do it in this timeline if he really put his mind to it, but doing so would leave him open to attack from the mainland and other nations.
 
This timeline greatly underestimates the Qing dynasty. Firstly China under Kangxi was NOT closed to trade with Europeans. Far from it there was a bustling porcelain and tea trade which was bankrupting European treasuries. Augustus the Strong bought so much porcelain that Canton became known as the Bleeding Bowl of Saxony. What China was opposed to was importing European goods which it deemed useless. It was however very keen on exports.

Qing emperors were also enamoured with Europe. They had European painters and scientists at their court. Faux European villages were built for the Qianlong Emperor to visit in his Rococo style Summer Palace designed by Jesuits. His father, the Yongzhen Emperor had a painting commissioned of himself in European wig and costume, and learned to play the piano.

Early Qing emperors were also obsessed with unifying the country. Their later obsession with expansion to the west only came about after they had secured China, including sorting out the Ming hold outs in Taiwan and Burma. If Koxinga's Nanning Kingdom survives, they will no doubt focus their energy taking the island. The Manchus could not tolerate Ming loyalists running their own country off shore.

Now it's possible that Koxinga could hold out against the inevitable onslaught. But his forces wouldn't absorb European weapons any better than the Manchus would. It should be remembered that after the Dutch were driven out of Taiwan, they formed an alliance with the Manchus. In fact when the Manchus eventually succeeded invading Taiwan it was in part due to the superiority of Dutch naval cannons used on Manchu war junks.

So where would Koxinga get European weapons? The Dutch hates him, the Spanish feared his designs on the Philippines. Maybe he could make an embassy to the court of Louise XIV, but what could he offer? No one would sell to him, even if he had the money, which he wouldn't because this proposed China/Korea/Taiwan export arrangement could not happen in the face of the thriving China to Europe trade.

The only chance for Koxinga to survive is to take the Philippines by force. This will give him a tax base and strategic depth. It may not be enough to hold on to Taiwan in the massive war with the Manchus that's sure to follow, in which the Qing could count on both the Dutch and Spanish as willing allies.

So at the end of the day, the best Koxinga could hope for is stalemate which preserves his seat of power in the Philippines. Going on to conquer the rest of SE Asia seems a stretch. Even if that were possible, the Qing dynasty would be changed forever by this power struggle. It would almost certainly be more maritime oriented, and have more modern weapons. It would be keen to keep up to date with the going ons of the maritime threat to their south. Nanning is not going to be left alone to run Southeast Asia.
 
Before Koxinga can go off conquering other lands, he needs to conquer the rest of Taiwan or make alliances with the natives at the very least. Taiwan's limited resources are pretty much all located in the mountains, and Koxinga's kingdom is going to need them as well as enough land to support the population. In our timeline, the Dutch, the Spanish, Koxinga and his kingdom, and the Qing empire were not able to conquer the entire island. It took Japan nearly 30 years to completely subjugate the Taiwanese and that was with airplanes and modern weaponry. I suppose with more advanced weapons from Europe, Koxinga might be able to do it in this timeline if he really put his mind to it, but doing so would leave him open to attack from the mainland and other nations.
That is my point as well..
 
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Upon reading it I went like "Wait, a Ming Emperor that never dies? Surely this belongs in the ASB section!" then I read the thread and found out that wasn't the case. In any case, I like the idea very much seeing how surprisingly Eurocentric the forum tends to be, so I hope you go on with it! All I can say that's negative would be that I wish you would have been a little more detailed in your description of the course of events, because I like this idea... :eek:
 
Yeah he could get a decent slice of the Philippines but not all of it because there are people who are interested in it especially the Bruneians who had designs in the Northern part of the Philippines and they try again will get it once the Spanish are weakened and they may grant lands to Koxinga....I think the best scenario for him is for the 17th century revolt against the Spaniards to succeed and the rebel rules Luzon....the question is would they ally and give some land to Koxinga, I think they might ally and give Koxinga some asylum if Brunei reacts.

Why does Koxinga have to pay attention to Brunei at all? After the Castille War 90 years earlier Brunei was out of the game. They would certainly not be in any position to threaten Koxinga should he drive the Spanish out of Luzon. At best they might get a piece of southern Philippines with the Spanish in disarray. At worst, the loss of the Philippines would redirect Spanish ambition further south, to Brunei's dismay.
 
Why does Koxinga have to pay attention to Brunei at all? After the Castille War 90 years earlier Brunei was out of the game. They would certainly not be in any position to threaten Koxinga should he drive the Spanish out of Luzon. At best they might get a piece of southern Philippines with the Spanish in disarray. At worst, the loss of the Philippines would redirect Spanish ambition further south, to Brunei's dismay.


You forgot my edit - I edited out the statement you replied because I don't really like debating about Philippine History and I criticize TL's about it because some of it's details that were not recorded and some artefacts are destroyed, so don't bother about previous my replies..

I think a healthier Koxinga could butterfly what happened to the 1661 revolt in Luzon and the revolt could succeed and the Macabebe scouts are defeated as well, I just wonder how would the new rebel state will interact with the Kingdom of Tungning.
 
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