What if Charles Martel of Naples gains the Kingdom of Arles

Despite the title's permanent union with that of King of the Romans, the Arelat was considered for reconstitution several times. The most serious of these was under Pope Nicholas III and sponsored by Charles of Anjou: as part of the deals and truces taken place between 1277 and 1279 between Charles, who at that time was already King of Naples, Rudolf of Habsburg, King of the Romans and aspirant to the Imperial crown, and Margaret of Provence, the Queen-Mother of France, over the conflict of jurisdictions and succession for the County of Provence, as well as the chain of favors exploited by Rudolf to become the sole Imperial candidate. In the agreement, Nicholas III managed to settle Rudolf to give up the whole Arelat to Charles's grandson Charles Martel of Anjou as a dowry for marrying his daughter Klementia von Habsburg, in exchange for hereditary rights to the Kingdom of Germany for him and his successors. Likewise, Nicholas expected Northern Italy to become a kingdom carved out of the Imperial territory and be given to his family, the Orsini. In 1282, Charles was ready to send the child couple to reclaim the old royal title of Kings of Arles, but the War of the Sicilan Vespers frustrated his plans, as well as his planned invasion of the Byzantine Empire.


What if Charles Martel gained the Kingdom of Arles?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Arles#cite_note-2
 
Depends on when he gets it.

If before Vespers War, he can avoid that, or win it.

If after, he might be able to regain Sicily, and we might see an earlier [sort of] Italy proper.
 
Talking about Charles I of Anjou in mid-XIIIth century first.

For the plausibility, it's not really high. Charles I's rule was centered on Italy, especially in order to neutralize the troublesome Provencal nobility and urban elites.
A dual kingship would have possibly broke the tendency of sattelisation of Provence and re-launched troubles similars as 1250's, with local coalitions for more autonomy if not giving a tool for ulterior imperial ambitions.

Because the scession (and not recreation at least for imperials : it's not because the kingdom stopped to be mentioned that imperial suzerainty and kingship over the region was considered void) of the kingship to Charles wouldn't have mean it would have gone outside imperial suzerainty, as his provencals holdings were well considered part of the HRE.

Meaning that the 70's talks had little chances to have such outcome.

As for Charles Martel in the 80's.

It's likely to see Charles Martel gaining some sort of apanage in Provence and a title in the kingdom, as Charles VI of France recieved one in the XIVth century, except centered not in Dauphiné but in Provence. Most probably not an independent kingdom, over what was a nest for independent principalities that wouldn't have taken s**t from Charles Martel (and they didn't took so during the Angevine campaign in Provence)

What broke Angevine "peaceful" pseudo-vicariate possibility, rather than Sicilian Vespers, was the death of Nicholas III and the ascendency of Martin IV, favourable to Angevines and ready to let Charles I expand in central Italy, something his predecessor didn't wanted (and why he meddled with this Provencal proposal instead).

Without Sicilan Vespers, Charles would have to fight on a triple front : Adriatic, Italy, Provence (without counting Sicilian troubles) that would really stretch his ressources thin against what was a big coalition (Northern Provencal nobility nobility, Germans, Gascons, Savoy, diverse french nobles) while he beneficied from Imperial relative indifference and local support (as in Dauphiné).
Eventually, he would have to concede, and not pulling an unified kingdom out of the south-western parts of the Empire, if he not looses eveything in this bet of course, and could end as in a similar situation than in Hungary : titular king without real power in his kingdom; even if I think he would still beneficy from his Provencal grounds (that once separated from Naples, would be really prone to be troublesome again).

Brively :
- 1270's : no big chances
- 1280's : If Nicholas III doesn't die, it's possible but would look more as a vicariate.
- 1280's : If full scale war, whoever wins would see his local power weakened, and forced to backpedal his ambitions, letting the whole kingdom still infeodated to HRE (that was never really put in question) and everything past direct holdings independent.
 
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