What if Jim Callaghan won the UK election and defeated Thatcher, either by calling a 1978 election or winning in 1979? What would be the effects? How would the UK economy have been effected? Would Thatcherism still be put in lace at some point(though probably under a different name) or would Uk politics be more left-wing? How would Callaghan's term go? How would he handle the Falklands(would the war still occur)? How would the UK Labour Party be effected? Would Labour be more electorally successful? I heard that Callaghan was a centrist Labour leader, a 1970s Blairite and could have if given a better chance expanded Labour's electorate. Or would Lbaour have still gone to the leftin the 1980s? what would happen to the Tories? What would be the effects? What if?
 
Wouldnt he have to be perceived as almost solving the economy, as giving it the good college try, coming close, still the energy to keep going?

PS I'm a Yank and by no means an expert.
 

RyanF

Banned
Much easier winning a 1978 election than 1979, I can't see any way for Labour to win in 1979 following the Winter of Discontent.

If Callaghan calls an election in October 1978 there is a good chance you would see Labour returned with a very small majority (<20 seats).

The first concern would be if the unions still go on strike that winter (Labour's pay policy would probably remain the same). The government would still have the stigma of not being able to contain the strikes sooner, but may be able to avoid some if the bigger gaffes that made the strike so infamous (the gravedigger strike and "What crisis?") to name two.

In the event the Winter of Discontent still goes much as OTL you would have a Labour Majority at the start of a new parliamentary term, instead of a Labour Minority at the end of one. There is however a slight chance that Callaghan may resign shortly after the conclusion of the strikes (if I remember correctly the understanding was he would step down 1980 at the latest).

When Callaghan goes under the then process of choosing a leader you will probably see Prime Minister Denis Healey. There would be calls from the public, the Opposition and the Party to curb the power of the Unions. Discussion around In Place of Strife and the Bullock Report will probably resume, but whether Labour would be courageous enough as to bite the hand that feeds them I'm not so sure.

The early 1980s economic downturn would still hit the UK, but in the absence of the monetarist policies pursued by OTL government the effects will probably be dampened somewhat.

Now the question is when is the next election and who would win it. If Argentina still invades the Falklands (with a 1978 POD I think it's likely to happen at some point, if Argentina loose the World Cup they may invade in 1979) Labour's response would be exactly the same as the Conservatives in OTL (Michael Foot was in favour if sending the task force to retake the islands OTL). The War may not come to much more than a naval skirmish if the RN don't withdraw their vessel from the Falklands facing government cuts.

Any 1982/83 election would depend on three things, how the Labour government are seen to be dealing with the Unions in the wake of the Winter of Discontent and any other industrial strife, how the government are seen to respond to any aggressive moves by Argentina concerning the Falklands, and how much of a recovery their is to the economic downturn from the arrival of North Sea Oil money.

Speaking of "Scotland's Oil", there may just be enough impetus to pass the Scottish Assembly referendum in 1979 in this ATL, but that's worth an entire topic of its own.

If Labour wins the 82/83 election you would see Prime Minister Healey until at least the mid-1980s, if the Conservatives win it all depends who replaces Thatcher after her defeat in 1978, but I could see Whitelaw initially then possibly Pym.

On the whole depending on what path the Conservative Party takes you may never see monetarism grow to be more than a fringe idea in the UK, overall the country may be more left-wing compared to OTL, but bizarrely this depends on how the Labour Party handle their own internal troubles. The split between right and left in Labour was a long time coming.
 
According Wikipedia
Were Argentina in the midst of a devastating economic stagnation and large-scale civil unrest against the military junta
This Junta got new leadership of General Leopoldo Galtieri, Brigadier Basilio Lami Dozo and Admiral Jorge Anaya.
Last one had solution to there problems , Let's invade Falkland Islands and make them las Malvinas again !
Anaya argumentation was successful campaign would unite the Argentines behind there Government and Britain would never respond military.

Oh hell were they wrong, as Thatcher show what "Great Britain" stand for...

Now here we have interesting speculation, how would Callaghan deal with the Invasion of Falklands ?
would just protest diplomatic against Invasion and cruelties the Argentines Junta would do to British citizen on Island, that would let to much worst Winter of Discontent as OTL

James Callaghan would know that option and it's outcome,
In 1967 as Home Secretary, He took the decision to use the British Army to support the police in Northern Ireland.
so he would declare War to Argentina and with similar outcome: The defeat of Argentines Military and downfall of there Junta

But with success of Falklands War, is that guarantee for successful economic politic for his government in begin of 1980s or will Thatcher win next election ?
 
I am surprised no one brought up this entertaining piece yet...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2308332/Cuba-sunshine.html

Dawn is breaking in Puerto Argentino, the town its former inhabitants once knew as Port Stanley. At the tiny airport, a gigantic mural commemorates the soldiers from the mainland who lost their lives in the battle for the Malvinas, or the Falklands, as they used to be called.

Next to the old Anglican cathedral (now Catholic), a gigantic blue and white flag flutters. In the square nearby, a statue of General Leopoldo Galtieri gazes impassively out to sea.

Today, in 2013, the world remembers General Galtieri as one of the defining personalities of the Eighties, a strong leader who, by recapturing the Malvinas, set his stamp on the age.

For Britain, however, it was a dreadful decade — perhaps the worst in our modern history, and one that set the tone for years to come.


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Socialist 'heaven': Tony Benn as PM, Kinnock as Chancellor

For many historians, the Eighties really began in September 1978, when Labour Prime Minister Jim Callaghan announced there would be a General Election on Thursday, October 5.

Though Callaghan had been forced to seek a humiliating bailout from the IMF only two years earlier, he remained remarkably popular. Polls showed Labour neck-and-neck with Margaret Thatcher’s Tory Party. The PM didn’t have to call an election until the autumn of 1979, but he figured it was better to go to the polls now than risk any deterioration in his party’s fortunes.

As the campaign wore on, Callaghan began to pull ahead. And when the first results were announced in the early hours of Friday morning, it was clear that his great election gamble had paid off.

Labour had secured only a 12-seat majority, but it was enough. And on the Tory benches, disappointed expectations soon turned into bitter recriminations.


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For many historians, the Eighties really began in September 1978, when Labour Prime Minister Jim Callaghan announced there would be a General Election on Thursday, October 5

On the Monday after polling day, the famous men in grey suits — the party grandees, who had never really liked her — paid a call on Margaret Thatcher. She resigned as party leader that evening, brushing away tears in a moving farewell Press conference.

As historians now agree, Mrs Thatcher never really stood a chance: Britain was not ready for a woman prime minister. As she herself had remarked only eight years earlier: ‘There will not be a woman prime minister in my lifetime — the male population is too prejudiced.’

In her place, the Tories turned to the bumbling figure of Willie Whitelaw, an old-fashioned patrician Wet whom they decided would connect better with the British electorate.

In the meantime, the country was reeling from crisis to crisis. Scarcely had Callaghan returned to No 10 than his premiership was consumed in the notorious Winter of Discontent. As one group of workers after another — lorry drivers, railwaymen, bus drivers, ambulance drivers, caretakers, cleaners, even grave-diggers — walked out on strike for higher wages, the country ground to a halt.

Buoyed by his election victory, Callaghan was in no mood to compromise. Rather than break his declared 5 per cent national pay limit and risk higher inflation, he declared a State of Emergency and summoned the Army to drive Britain’s petrol tankers.

On the Monday after polling day, the famous men in grey suits — the party grandees, who had never really liked her — paid a call on Margaret Thatcher. She resigned as party leader that evening
It was a catastrophic mistake. On February 12, 1979, a date that has gone down in history as Black Monday, fighting broke out between pickets and soldiers at one depot outside Hull.

In the chaos, one soldier — carrying live rounds, in contravention of orders — opened fire and killed five people. It was one of the most shocking moments in modern British history.

Callaghan resigned the next day, the last honourable act of a decent man overwhelmed by events. But contrary to his expectations, the Labour Party did not turn to his Chancellor, the bushy-browed Denis Healey.

Instead, they lurched to the Left and elected as their new Prime Minister Michael Foot, with his flowing white locks, walking stick and impassioned socialist rhetoric. The real power in the land, however, was Foot’s colleague Tony Benn, who replaced the disgruntled Healey as Chancellor. And in the next few years, it was Benn who presided over the most sweeping socialist measures any Western country had seen in living memory.

To the horror of many in industry, Benn insisted that Britain’s declining economy needed a dose of shock therapy. The top rate of income tax went up to 98 per cent, and the government announced a one-off 5 per cent ‘equality levy’ on households with income over £50,000 a year.

As frightened investors began to withdraw their money from the City of London, Benn introduced sweeping exchange controls. He also, in an attempt to shore up Britain’s crumbling manufacturing base, introduced the most stringent import tariffs in the Western world.


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On the Monday after polling day, the famous men in grey suits - the party grandees, who had never really liked her - paid a call on Margaret Thatcher. She resigned as party leader that evening

The reaction was pandemonium. As inflation shot over 25 per cent and unemployment went above two million, horrified European leaders insisted that Britain’s new policies were incompatible with membership of the Common Market.

But Benn was adamant. ‘You turn if you want to,’ he told his party conference in 1980. ‘Labour’s not for turning.’

The following year, as the economic picture continued to worsen, the Government introduced controls to stop people taking sterling out of the country. As a result, the foreign package holiday market collapsed — although landladies in Blackpool said they had never seen more business.

There were rumours that Foot was planning to move his turbulent Chancellor, but they were blown away when, in April 1982, Argentine forces landed in the Falklands.

As a veteran crusader against fascism, Foot was desperate to confront the invaders, even though most of his own party opposed him. But the operation to recapture the islands was a disaster from start to finish.

The sinking of HMS Sheffield marked the beginning of the end, and after the disastrous failure of the San Carlos landings, the game was up.

As inflation shot over 25 per cent and unemployment went above two million, horrified European leaders insisted that Britain’s new policies were incompatible with membership of the Common Market
Foot clung onto office for a few more months, but in the autumn of 1982, after a handful of Labour right-wingers led by Healey had broken away to form the Social Democratic Party, Foot announced his resignation — becoming the second Labour Leader to quit in just three years. And so it was that Benn took his place as Labour leader for the Remembrance Day service at the Cenotaph in November 1982.

A year earlier, Foot had been derided for wearing a green coat described by some as a donkey jacket. Now Benn turned up in a genuine black woollen donkey jacket, complete with numerous badges: CND, ‘Right to Work’, ‘Ireland for the Irish’ and a tiny Red flag.

When Benn called an election six months later, his manifesto called for the abolition of the monarchy and the Lords, withdrawal from Nato and the EEC, the scrapping of our nuclear weapons and the nationalisation of Britain’s 25 biggest companies.

His critics called it the ‘longest suicide note in history’.

But thanks to some enthusiastic pump priming by his new Chancellor, Neil Kinnock, there was an illusory sense of economic recovery.

And as the ineffective Whitelaw and the belligerent Healey spent most of the election campaign attacking one another, it was Benn, defying all the pundits, who was triumphantly re-elected in June 1983.

‘We’re all right!’ shouted a jubilant Kinnock at a Labour victory rally. ‘We’re all right!’


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In place of Thatcher, the Tories turned to the bumbling figure of Willie Whitelaw, an old-fashioned patrician Wet whom they decided would connect better with the British electorate

What followed has gone down in history as Britain’s Hundred Days.

Benn’s attempts to abolish the monarchy came to nothing. But he did manage to get rid of the House of Lords, overcoming the old order’s opposition by creating a record 500 new peers, including such luminaries as Viscount Barnsley (Arthur Scargill), the Earl of Nottingham (football manager Brian Clough) and the Marchioness of Stirling (the comedian Wee Jimmy Krankie).

In its place, the trade unions were invited to nominate a new People’s Convention, who would sit in judgment on all legislation passed by the Commons.

In the next few weeks, the Convention approved the most sweeping measures Britain had ever known. The Armed Forces were slashed to the bone, and Britain’s nuclear weapons were decommissioned.

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The Labour party lurched to the Left and elected as their new Prime Minister Michael Foot, with his flowing white locks, walking stick and impassioned socialist rhetoric

In Dublin, Benn signed a historic Anglo-Irish agreement, turning Northern Ireland into an international protectorate with Senator Edward Kennedy as the state’s first proconsul.

And with Britain’s car industry in desperate trouble, and foreign imports now forbidden by law, Benn made a ground-breaking trip across the Berlin Wall, where he struck a deal to buy 250,000 East German Trabants.

There was no disguising the fact, though, that Britain’s economy was now in a wretched condition. Kinnock’s pre-election boom had turned inexorably to dust, leaving the country with an inflation rate of almost 40 per cent and official unemployment figures of four million plus.

Undeterred by mounting criticism from France’s President Mitterrand and West Germany’s Chancellor Kohl, Benn ploughed the profits from North Sea oil into what he called the ‘Big Bang’ — a massive programme to provide new jobs for the unemployed in Britain’s coal mines.

From her new home in the United States, where she had become a visiting professor at Harvard, Margaret Thatcher warned that the Prime Minister was squandering Britain’s resources on industries that were doomed to failure.

However, by now it was too late. As a result of the recession and the inefficiencies of the dominant printing unions, most newspapers had closed. The Times had ceased publication in 1981, when the Government vetoed Rupert Murdoch’s attempt to rescue it from bankruptcy.

Those papers that survived, including the Daily Mail, were forced to operate under the strict supervision of the new Minister of Communications, former Oscar-winning actress Glenda Jackson.

Meanwhile, the BBC was put under government control, with one of Benn’s disciples, the Postmaster General Michael Meacher, assuming the role of chairman.

To the few foreign tourists who came to Britain, cities such as London seemed strangely shabby and backward. Few restaurants stayed open after 9 pm. Telephone connections were slow and erratic.


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The real power in the land, however, was Foot’s colleague Tony Benn (right), who replaced the disgruntled Denis Healey (left) as Chancellor, and then replaced him as Labour Prime Minister


A few pioneering souls invested in mobile phones, which were — and indeed still are — provided by the General Post Office, though you have to be prepared to wait nine months.

And since the Prime Minister had always been keen on gadgets, it was not surprising that he ploughed billions into Britain’s nationalised British Computer Corporation, even though the results were widely condemned as slow and unreliable.

Home computers, for instance, never took off in popularity, since most people simply could not afford the necessary £250 licence. Little wonder, then, that all these years later, less than 10 per cent of Britain’s population is connected to the internet.

For all Mr Benn’s efforts, however, his socialist paradise did not last for ever. Despite the torrent of pro-Government propaganda poured out by the state-controlled BBC, the British people had had enough.


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The sinking of HMS Sheffield marked the beginning of the end, and after the disastrous failure of the San Carlos landings, the game was up

In 1988, they kicked out the government and replaced it with a Tory-SDP Coalition, led by Michael Heseltine.

Yet less changed than many people expected. Britain never returned to either Nato or the EEC, and 25 years later we are still something of a pariah in Europe.

The Cold War continues, but we remain officially neutral — not least because our military weakness means that no potential ally would really want us.

Thanks to their control of the People’s Convention, public life is still dominated by the trade unions, marshalled by the 75-year-old TUC president Arthur Scargill.

Meanwhile, most of the country’s supermarkets, pubs and even removal firms are still owned by the State.


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'We're all right!' shouted a jubilant Chancellor Kinnock at a Labour victory rally after Benn, defying all the pundits, was triumphantly re-elected in June 1983

When President Obama called Britain ‘Cuba without the sunshine — and with older cars’, we pretended to laugh. But for most of us, Britain’s condition is long past a joke.

So, could things have been different?

Some historians claim that if Callaghan had put off the election until 1979, as some of his ministers were urging, then Margaret Thatcher might have won and become prime minister. And then 21st century Britain would be completely different.

But I’m not so sure. As our school curriculum — written by Tony Blair, Mr Benn’s hand-picked successor — is so keen on reminding us, individuals never matter in history.

The tides of history were surely inevitable. And in any case, who ever heard of a woman Prime Minister?





Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2308332/Cuba-sunshine.html#ixzz49ZZhzl5t
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Pretty much the same as in 1982. RM detachment and the FIDF.

What triggered the '82 invasion was the MoD decision to scrap Endurance and not replace her leading them to conclude the UK was looking for an "out".

Oh and the photo of Sheffield is the earlier WW2 era light Town class Cruiser, you want the later Type 42 Guided Missile Destroyer.
 
I am surprised no one brought up this entertaining piece yet...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2308332/Cuba-sunshine.html
Yeah you can definitely tell that article was written with the intention of scaring people about what would happen had Thatcher not come along, it includes quite a few questionable things taking place. Foot would almost certainly have not won the leadership election if Labour were in government, firstly because his victory was dependent on the support of moderate MPs, who voted for him because they though that he could keep the Bennites in check better than Healey could (in fairness they probably werent wrong) and also a small number of future defectors to the SDP voted for him to give there new party a good start. Those factors probably wouldnt be under consideration when Labour were in government. There would also be more MPs sitting on marginal seats who tended to favour the moderate wing of the party, so Healey would win in all probability. Even if Foot had won and become PM, he wouldnt make Benn Chancellor, otherwise his backbenches would have been up in revolt, and Healey would probably work with him rather than against him, as he did in opposition in OTL. He was always sceptical of breaking off and forming a third party, both because he didnt have an easy relationship with the likes of Roy Jenkins or David Owen, and he knew electorally it would be destined to fail, so he would never have led a breakaway party no matter how bad things became. And unless this breakaway of moderates was over half the PLP (and the fact that Labour somehow hasnt lost its majority of 12 after a defection which was in OTL around 30 Labour MPs would suggest that it is somehow even smaller) then Benn would not succeed him, unless of course the way Labour elects its leader had been shifted to the electoral college, which wasnt mentioned and probably wouldnt happen while the party was still in government. And the whole thing about the BBC becoming state controlled is laughable.

The most likely outcome if Callaghan had won in 1978 would be that we wouldnt get Thatcherism, the woman herself would be removed after the election, given how many problems Labour had in that term even without the winter of discontent it would have be viewed as massively disappointing for them not to take power, and a lesson on why the party should always take a moderate approach. Meanwhile, Labour would remain somewhat moderate with Callaghan in charge, he would step down and be replaced by Healy at some point. If the Unions could be curbed somewhat, then the biggest question is if there would be a Falklands, which there might not be if Thatcher is not in power, given how she removed the naval presence from that area. If there is one, I am not sure if Healy would have responded in the same way as Thatcher. He was against action when Foot was in favour. So perhaps he attempts to come to some kind of diplomatic solution.

Whatever happens it will probably not give him a big enough boost to win the next election. I could see Labour losing out narrowly to a moderate Tory party in 1983 after the winter of discontent, 9 years in power, and a probably recovering but fragile economy. If Healy himself didnt stay on, then another moderate would be elected by the PLP to replace him, possibly Hattersley, who would have to battle the left, and the next election would probably see Labour lose seats. If Labour can avoid electing a Bennite to succeeed him, they might be back in power in the early nineties under someone like Kinnock.
 
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RyanF

Banned

Agreed about that article, would take the Daily Mail's view on potential Labour government with the same scepticism I take The Morning Star's view of the Conservatives.

Also agreed with the rest of your analysis. Labour governments will not last the 1980s but if they avoid a lurch leftward will be back in power by the mid-1990s. This would mean we'd probably be seeing in the new millennium still under the post-War consensus.
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
According Wikipedia
Were Argentina in the midst of a devastating economic stagnation and large-scale civil unrest against the military junta
This Junta got new leadership of General Leopoldo Galtieri, Brigadier Basilio Lami Dozo and Admiral Jorge Anaya.
Last one had solution to there problems , Let's invade Falkland Islands and make them las Malvinas again !
Anaya argumentation was successful campaign would unite the Argentines behind there Government and Britain would never respond military.

Oh hell were they wrong, as Thatcher show what "Great Britain" stand for...

Now here we have interesting speculation, how would Callaghan deal with the Invasion of Falklands ?
would just protest diplomatic against Invasion and cruelties the Argentines Junta would do to British citizen on Island, that would let to much worst Winter of Discontent as OTL

James Callaghan would know that option and it's outcome,
In 1967 as Home Secretary, He took the decision to use the British Army to support the police in Northern Ireland.
so he would declare War to Argentina and with similar outcome: The defeat of Argentines Military and downfall of there Junta

But with success of Falklands War, is that guarantee for successful economic politic for his government in begin of 1980s or will Thatcher win next election ?

Suggest you read up on Operation Journeyman.

One SSN sent down to the South Atlantic in 1977 and this was made known to the Argentines on the quiet.

The Iron Lady proposed withdrawing HMS Endurance the ice patrol ship & last RN vessel in the South Atlantic, seen as a green light for invasion by the cynical junta. If she had lived up to her name & sought to deter Galtieri then many lives on both sides would have been spared.
 
If Thatcher was kicked out then possibly Howe would have taken over, possibly even Carrington. The tories would need to regain the middle ground after the election loss.
 

RyanF

Banned
If Thatcher was kicked out then possibly Howe would have taken over, possibly even Carrington. The tories would need to regain the middle ground after the election loss.

Howe wouldn't have had really much government experience by that point, only having held a couple of junior posts in Heath's government; and I can't see them making a peer leader from opposition unless Carrington disclaimed his peerage, but even then Labour would milk that for all it was worth that the Tories are out of touch.

An interesting question would be does Thatcher stand in the leadership election, maybe she wouldn't remembering the example her predecessor set... speaking of her predecessor, what would Ted Heath be doing in the aftermath of a 1978 election defeat?
 
I can't see any way for Labour to win in 1979 following the Winter of Discontent.

Alfred Broughton attends the vote and votes against the Motion of No Confidence tabled by the Opposition, resulting in a tied 311/311 vote, compelling the Speaker to break the tie. In keeping with convention, he votes with the Government, thus striking down the motion, keeping Mr. Callaghan in office, and likely marking an end to Thatcher's leadership of the Tories.

Such an occurrence could well infuse Labour voters with enough vigor to win an election later on.
 

RyanF

Banned
Alfred Broughton attends the vote and votes against the Motion of No Confidence tabled by the Opposition, resulting in a tied 311/311 vote, compelling the Speaker to break the tie. In keeping with convention, he votes with the Government, thus striking down the motion, keeping Mr. Callaghan in office, and likely marking an end to Thatcher's leadership of the Tories.

Such an occurrence could well infuse Labour voters with enough vigor to win an election later on.

Possible, but it'd be the hardest won victory that the Labour Party had ever, or probably would ever have.

With the hyperbolic images of the Winter of Discontent not yet a year passed I can't see Labour surviving a General Election, even surviving a vote of no confidence on, what some might see as, a technicality.
 
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