What if British moved before Japan to take German Micronesia in 1914?

raharris1973

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The territories were pretty remote from everyone.

What if the British did not grab possessions south of the equator first, but also moved into Palau, the Caroline’s and Marshall Islands first, leaving Japan with only the Marianas islands north of Guam.

Japan’s perimeter does not extend nearly as far south in the Pacific as in OTL?

How does this altered situation change Japanese interwar naval planning, what about the Americans development of “War Plan Orange” and especially the focusing of the USMC on amphibious invasions in the interwar?
 

raharris1973

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I think that these islands would probably stay under British Mandate postwar, rather than Australian.

For interwar planning, well the Japanese cannot plan to use air and submarine bases south of the Marianas to attriting an advancing US fleet.

For American Plan Red-Orange, against both Britain and Japan, it makes basically no difference from OTL's version.

For War Plan Orange, if the assumption is an allied Britain, the larger British position is a bonus for the US. If the assumption is British neutrality it creates problems with the American operational concept of seizing intermediate islands to ultimately support a fleet and ground force reconquest of Guam and the PI from the assumed Japanese occupation.
 
First Japan will probable feel betrayed by the British, feeling they weren't given all they were promised for entering the war.

If Japan only has the Northern Marianas can a Pacific war plan even be realistically considered by them?
 
I mean, if the British got it first, they'll probably keep it as a mandate, but the question would be why? For Britain, the European front is leaps and bounds more important that any part of Germany's colonial empire. And even among the colonies, Africa would take priority over the Far East. The fact is that Japan is the Entente's most powerful ally in the Far East precisely because they free up European resources to fight in Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Trying to outrace Japan for land grabs is doable, but it's far less rewarding for the resources they have to siphon away from more valuable areas. And while Australia and New Zealand can try, they both lack the resources to grab more islands than they had IOTL, and are required to fight on other fronts.

It also brings up a worse problem for the British as the larger their mandate in the Pacific is, the more spread out the Royal Navy becomes at trying to safeguard it. How fast could the US try to get to the Pacific Islands before Japan pulls an island hopping campaign of their own? The garrisons that were otherwise used in the island defences could then be used in other theatres, like China or Southeast Asia.
 

BlondieBC

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I mean, if the British got it first, they'll probably keep it as a mandate, but the question would be why? For Britain, the European front is leaps and bounds more important that any part of Germany's colonial empire. And even among the colonies, Africa would take priority over the Far East. The fact is that Japan is the Entente's most powerful ally in the Far East precisely because they free up European resources to fight in Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Trying to outrace Japan for land grabs is doable, but it's far less rewarding for the resources they have to siphon away from more valuable areas. And while Australia and New Zealand can try, they both lack the resources to grab more islands than they had IOTL, and are required to fight on other fronts.

It also brings up a worse problem for the British as the larger their mandate in the Pacific is, the more spread out the Royal Navy becomes at trying to safeguard it. How fast could the US try to get to the Pacific Islands before Japan pulls an island hopping campaign of their own? The garrisons that were otherwise used in the island defences could then be used in other theatres, like China or Southeast Asia.

I don't even know it is doable. Have you ever looked at the Order of Battle for the UK at the start of the war? Unless one does the ASB scenario where Japan takes stuff and then gives it to the UK, the UK has to take this stuff itself before the Japanese arrive. Since the Japanese have forces in the region, we know the UK can't move this fast. So the only way to get a realistic POD to allow the UK to take these lands is for Japan to not enter the war. The UK if it chose to devote the resources, could take these islands plus Tsingtao over a 12-18 months but the butterflies will be profound since the Germans will have at least 6 months to prepare in the Pacific after the war is doable.

As to the Royal Navy, there is actually enough ships to do it, but it takes a different mindset for the UK. Just like the German Coast was safe from UK invasion despite a 2:1 force advantage for the UK, the reverse would also be true. Despite their tactical bravery, the UK was strategically timid with its fleet.
 

raharris1973

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I don't even know it is doable. Have you ever looked at the Order of Battle for the UK at the start of the war? Unless one does the ASB scenario where Japan takes stuff and then gives it to the UK, the UK has to take this stuff itself before the Japanese arrive. Since the Japanese have forces in the region, we know the UK can't move this fast. So the only way to get a realistic POD to allow the UK to take these lands is for Japan to not enter the war. The UK if it chose to devote the resources, could take these islands plus Tsingtao over a 12-18 months but the butterflies will be profound since the Germans will have at least 6 months to prepare in the Pacific after the war is doable.

As to the Royal Navy, there is actually enough ships to do it, but it takes a different mindset for the UK. Just like the German Coast was safe from UK invasion despite a 2:1 force advantage for the UK, the reverse would also be true. Despite their tactical bravery, the UK was strategically timid with its fleet.

This overrates the difficulty of the task significantly. Japan effectively seized all the islands in a single month, October 1914.

Australia and New Zealand got a head start on their South Pacific operations, swallowing up all New Guinea and Samoa before September 1914 was out.

A 6-18 month campaign is not at all called for. The German ships as it was did not try to defend in place but made a run for it to launch a raiding spree.

Did the Germans have much more fortification, ships or troops in the Carolines than the British had in their nearby colonial possessions of the Gilberts, Tonga, Fiji and New Hebrides?
 

BlondieBC

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This overrates the difficulty of the task significantly. Japan effectively seized all the islands in a single month, October 1914.

Australia and New Zealand got a head start on their South Pacific operations, swallowing up all New Guinea and Samoa before September 1914 was out.

A 6-18 month campaign is not at all called for. The German ships as it was did not try to defend in place but made a run for it to launch a raiding spree.

Did the Germans have much more fortification, ships or troops in the Carolines than the British had in their nearby colonial possessions of the Gilberts, Tonga, Fiji and New Hebrides?

Tsingtao. How long til the UK has the forces even to begin the multi-month campaign?

Also, with Tsingtao unblockaded, it will be an AMC factory. The German merchant fleet was disproportionally located in China compared to other overseas fleet.
 

raharris1973

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Tsingtao. How long til the UK has the forces even to begin the multi-month campaign?

Also, with Tsingtao unblockaded, it will be an AMC factory. The German merchant fleet was disproportionally located in China compared to other overseas fleet.

I don't see how Britain getting grabby about Micronesia south of Guam makes Japan any less interested in grabbing Tsingtao, or the Marianas.

There were token British participants in the fight for Tsingtao. If we presuppose Japan dawdles more before getting into the war, enough so the British and Australians can move up to Micronesia, then sure, the British probably don't really have the ships and men to put Tsingtao under or a tight siege or sweep the China coast thoroughly for German ships as in OTL, so a few more slip through to have raiding careers, but when the Japanese (and eventually even the British alone) turn their attention to it, Tsingtao is going down in a matter of weeks.
 

BlondieBC

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I don't see how Britain getting grabby about Micronesia south of Guam makes Japan any less interested in grabbing Tsingtao, or the Marianas.

There were token British participants in the fight for Tsingtao. If we presuppose Japan dawdles more before getting into the war, enough so the British and Australians can move up to Micronesia, then sure, the British probably don't really have the ships and men to put Tsingtao under or a tight siege or sweep the China coast thoroughly for German ships as in OTL, so a few more slip through to have raiding careers, but when the Japanese (and eventually even the British alone) turn their attention to it, Tsingtao is going down in a matter of weeks.

Japan will have them taken before the UK can get the forces to the theater, so for Japan not to take them means the UK has applied diplomatic pressure prewar. All bravado aside, once the Sea Lords had pulled the UK fleet back to England and began the dreadnaught era, the Japanese simply outweighted the RN in the Pacific by a wide margin.

As to Tsingtao, I have explained why I believe you either let Japan have what it wants or somehow keep the UK out of the war. So toTsingtao, where are you planning on pulling the men and ships out to do this task? It will take a heavy European style ToE division plus extra artillery units and engineers. The UK will take months to take down Tsingtao that has been freely resupplying for a half year to year. It took the Japanese 8 weeks, and they had better amphibious operations at this point in time. Tsingtao worked, Gallipoli was a clusterfuck.
 
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