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What if Britain in 1940 trusts the French not to surrender their fleet to the Axis? How would the internal politics of Vichy have been altered? Would Vichy have still agreed to allow German aircraft to operate from Syria in 1941? If a few aircraft arrive as OTL, can the British get them out without a serious clash? What happens in Indochina or New Caledonia? Can the British still have a Free French force without fighting against Vichy? Do the British miss out on using significant numbers of merchant ships?

If we reach late 1942 without any serious fighting (or large butterflies), might it be tempting for Vichy to allow an unopposed landing in the South of France. At first sight, the Anglo-American forces are too weak but it would be possible for most of the RAF and the 8th Air Force to fly to bases in Southern France and thus the Allies should have air superiority. Also they would have the support of a French army, which was limited to 100,000 men and lacked equipment but might have been able to recall men trained over 1939-40 and bring over most of another 100,000 men from North Africa (limited by transport and fighting in Tunisia).

Obviously, German can pre-empt this by invading Southern France but then North Africa falls to the Allies as OTL or sooner and the Allies acquire the French fleet undamaged.

Finally, how would postwar Anglo-French relations have changed?
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