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Basically I'm talking about Britain not making any naval or military commitments to France or Russia up through 1914.

The reason is that the British simply judge that even without the naval with France, Britain can outbuild the Germans and maintain sufficient battle fleet strength in the North Sea to have an adequate margin of safety.

On the other hand, they judge that a clear military/naval/moral alignment with France unnecessarily emboldens France (and Russia) to provoke or attack Germany, and thereby entangles Britain in potential war on the continent.

The British judge that rapprochement with the US, and alliance with Japan, allows for sufficient Atlantic concentration. They may freely enter colonial bargains with France and Russia over Africa and Asia, but make no commitments applying to Europe.

I would think the net effect of Britain staying uncommitted to France and Russia is that France and Russia would be less confident in their ability to prevail against Germany, and that Germany would be more confident in being able to handle its continental foes in any war, short or long.

How prone are France and Russia to raise the stakes against the Central Powers over issues in Europe or the colonial sphere, especially the Balkans? Significantly less than OTL, or about the same?

How prone with Germany and Austria-Hungary be to escalate disputes over issues in Europe or the colonial sphere, especially the Balkans, to a point where France and Russia are backed into a corner, forced to choose between fighting and taking a prestige hit?

With the CPs being less throughly "circled out" they may be less desperate, but theoretically could become more bossy and demanding in international disputes.

Ultimately, does British non-alignment discourage WWI (and its sequel) from happening in the first place? Or does it most likely lead to Germany coming to control Europe and its resources, by threat of force, or victory in a short or long war.

Could Germany, without actual war, intimidate or bully its way into command of European markets and major European states' foreign policy? Would Germany even desire to do such a thing if it appeared possible?
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