There will be a war in Europe at some point. Germany will be on the winning side, and gain some land. It does not have to be a huge amount. It might be Germany versus France over Morocco where Germany gets a small border adjustment and Morocco. It could be a full blown war like WW2. Might be over Balkans and Germany gets a bit of Russia. Or a lot.
I disagree on both points. War isn't all that likely. Neither the Kaiser or Tsar and neither did Franz Ferdinand. If they weather the July Crisis, the continent would probably remain peaceful. How the July Crisis plays out, is hard to say. The general tensions on the continent might be much less. No British support, no Morocco crisis. There's still the Young Turk revolution, Bosnia Crisis , the Italo-Ottoman War and the Balkan Wars. All are playing out differently
Normally, Russia and France would beat Austria and Germany. Russia's weakness from the Russo-Japanese War was fast ending. This more than anything is driving Moltke and Conrad to argue for war. In 1914 the inept handling of the Franco-Belgian forces save the Germans
Or have Russia partake as well. If they perceive both Russia and Germany as a threat, than London could very well try to agrivate tensions between the two rather than aligning with one so the two dump all their resources into counter one another rather than contesting areas of British interests.
Russia is participating big time. By 1914, Russia is spending more on naval construction than Germany and is even with British construction in Capital Ships (Dreadnaughts + Battle Cruisers)
British backing of Russia and France is their way of promoting tensions on the continent. Without those tensions, Germany and Russia could each put tremendous pressure on Britain
German and Russian interests are on a collision course as both are rising powers trying to muscle into the same regions of immediate security and economic interests. So I think your best bet for a conflict will be a Russian-German conflict over either the fate of the OE or Austria. In either case, Germany likely emerges on top, as Britain won't be willing to tolerate a legally dubious, expansive "Distant Blockade" policy (At least against non-belligerents, who'll start a robust transhiping bussiness) and I'd argue Italy will at least break neutral without British largess.
The only thing causing German-Russian strains is the Balkans and Austria's pretensions down there. Only the Bosnian Crisis moves Russia into tension with Austria. The Italo-Ottoman war disrupts the Balkan power balance. Its hard to game the outcomes down there with Britian out of the picture. But a Russo-German alliance isn't impossible by any means
Russia has four separate, dispersed fleets to equip, so they're less of a threat.
By itself, that may be true. But Russia plus France or Germany is a very serious threat to Britain. Probably fatal in 1914, definitely in 1920. Without the contintental tensions we can move those dates to 1911 and 1914. Britain can fight neither by herself
If the British consistently dodge attempts to talk with the French about an expeditionary force or naval division of responsibility, will the French expect that
a) they may be able to defeat the CP with just Russia and Serbia, without British assistance, or b) that the French can always arrange things so Britain is compelled to come in on their side?
Then France is truly dependent on Russia and Russia is likely to promote Bjorko