Hitler will be delighted, now all he has to worry about is France. France panics.
Without British support, France might accept to give Hitler a free hand in Eastern Europe (including Poland). In turn, Poland might accept to become a German ally. Which, in turn, means Germany can go straight for Barbarossa (no Norway, no Fall Gelb, no BoB, no North African and Balkan operations).
USSR would likely get no lend-lease. While Germans have unlimited trade with the world. Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, and possibly Yugoslavia, Greece (under Metaxas) and Finland (depends if there's a Winter War analogue) side with Germany.
Italy and Spain likely send volunteer brigades but remain officially neutral.
Britain and France not at war =
1 ) Japan can't invade French Indochina, which was pushed the Anglo-US into more sanctions and destroyed hope of a peaceful solution with Japan
2 ) Netherlands aren't invaded. So the DEI keep selling oil to Japan (no reason to follow British and US sanctions if they don't rely on Allied protection).
3 ) Invading British colonies in Asia appears like the folly it is, as Britain is not distracted.
So in Japan, Southern Option is dead in the water.
Northern Option might look tempting. So, the USSR might have to face both Germany (with satellites) and Japan alone.
A few Soviet advantages ITTL, though :
- Soviet Union might be better prepared (depends on lots of circumstances, though)
- Germany wouldn't benefit from French loot and factories
- Germany would have to guard the French border, just in case (France won't enter a war with a strong Germany and without British support, but if Germany becomes too distracted / weakened / stretched all bets are off)