What if Britain had turned away from Europe in the 1930s?

What would have happened if Britain had "withdrawn" from continental Europe in the 1930s and concentrated more on the Empire?

How would the other states have reacted, especially in the context of Hitler's rearmament?
 
A Second Explendid Isolation? The Führer thanks you Britain, the rest of Europe, not so much. A British "withdrawn" practically and totally torpedoes the French strategy of the time, consisting of only acting if it is coordinated with the British. If the British inform in advance that they are not willing to engage in European affairs, France will not act alone, which means that they will either not act at all (EX:Occupation of the Rhineland) or seek another partner to contain Germany, such as Italy or the USSR. The League of Nations will get ever weaker, if one of it last legs stops giving their strenght to it, at least in European affairs. Technically, there is the possibility for the Little Entente to continue existing and to be activated if Hitler decides to run amok through Central Europe, but that only works if France supports it, it is not a good replacement of Britain, and surely the French are going to throw it under the bus if it means getting Italy or the USSR´s support. With regard to the Spanish Civil War, it is possible that France abandons Non-Intervention and decides to support the Republic (which did not happen OTL because France needed British support, and Britain´s policy was in favor of non-intervention/benevolent neutrality in favour of the Nationalists). Ultimately, Britain will be forced to end the Second Explendid Isolation by the same reasons that ended the first one: The need to maintain the "Balance of Powers" in Britain´s favour, by stopping any continental power from achieving an hegemony over Europe. However, by then it may be too late, and London might find itself in such a bad situation that it would like to find itself in Churchill's shoes during OTL's Darkest Hour.
 
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Hitler will be delighted, now all he has to worry about is France. France panics.

Without British support, France might accept to give Hitler a free hand in Eastern Europe (including Poland). In turn, Poland might accept to become a German ally. Which, in turn, means Germany can go straight for Barbarossa (no Norway, no Fall Gelb, no BoB, no North African and Balkan operations).

USSR would likely get no lend-lease. While Germans have unlimited trade with the world. Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, and possibly Yugoslavia, Greece (under Metaxas) and Finland (depends if there's a Winter War analogue) side with Germany.
Italy and Spain likely send volunteer brigades but remain officially neutral.

Britain and France not at war =
1 ) Japan can't invade French Indochina, which was pushed the Anglo-US into more sanctions and destroyed hope of a peaceful solution with Japan
2 ) Netherlands aren't invaded. So the DEI keep selling oil to Japan (no reason to follow British and US sanctions if they don't rely on Allied protection).
3 ) Invading British colonies in Asia appears like the folly it is, as Britain is not distracted.

So in Japan, Southern Option is dead in the water.
Northern Option might look tempting. So, the USSR might have to face both Germany (with satellites) and Japan alone.

A few Soviet advantages ITTL, though :
  • Soviet Union might be better prepared (depends on lots of circumstances, though)
  • Germany wouldn't benefit from French loot and factories
  • Germany would have to guard the French border, just in case (France won't enter a war with a strong Germany and without British support, but if Germany becomes too distracted / weakened / stretched all bets are off)
 
What would have happened if Britain had "withdrawn" from continental Europe in the 1930s

A Second Explendid Isolation? .... Ultimately, Britain will be foreced to end the Second Explendid Isolation by the same reasons that ended the first one: The need to maintain the "Balance of Powers" in Britain´s favour, by stopping any continental power from achieving an hegemony over Europe. However, by then it may be too late, and London might find itself in such a bad situation that it would like to find itself in Churchill's shoes during OTL's Darkest Hour.

Is this not really very close to OTL ie the withdraw in 20s and early 30s followed by panic reengagement/rearmament in late 30s......
 
What would have happened if Britain had "withdrawn" from continental Europe in the 1930s and concentrated more on the Empire?

How would the other states have reacted, especially in the context of Hitler's rearmament?

Sorry but you would need a really strong motivation for Britain to ignore events on the Continent. Hitler took economic measures that would have compelled Britain to pay attention to Nazi Germany regardless of the military buildup, indeed for much of the 1930's it was economics not politics or military build up that provoked British ire.

Also Germany will not have unlimited trade in this scenario because they still won't have the money to pay for it.
 
Is this not really very close to OTL ie the withdraw in 20s and early 30s followed by panic reengagement/rearmament in late 30s......

Maybe, I think that the idea is to imagine what would have happened if even the limited involvement and the panic reengagement of OTL had not happened or/and if isolation was the official UK policy for Europe instead of appeasement.
 
Sorry but you would need a really strong motivation for Britain to ignore events on the Continent. Hitler took economic measures that would have compelled Britain to pay attention to Nazi Germany regardless of the military buildup, indeed for much of the 1930's it was economics not politics or military build up that provoked British ire.

Also Germany will not have unlimited trade in this scenario because they still won't have the money to pay for it.
For sure I think that Britain "withdrawing" from Europe would have been one of the dumbest decisions in history, but I started to think about the foreign policy of for example a Mosley Administration: He opposed interventionism against Hitler.

Would he have dropped his isolationism without falling to Fascism?
 
Some of the replies above are good answers - assuming this happens.

Only, it doesn't happen. Even a BCE entirely focused on the rest of the world still needs to enforce the old British foreign policy principle: don't allow one power to become hegemonic on the European continent. If that happens, then that power becomes a competitor in the colonial sphere and in the control of the sealanes - thus the worst news for a BCE focused on the other continents.
 
Britain didn’t do much of anything to contain Germany until it was too late OTL. France could pick a more useful partner to contain Germany or France could fail enabling Hitler to kill 150 million to create living space, depending on how the scenario plays out.

If France allies more closely with Italy as a result they might prevent Germany from annexing Austria. France and Italy both had good relations with Poland so that could be an alliance that can beat down a Germany yet to take Austria and Czechoslovakia.

If France allies more closely with the Soviet Union they might prevent German annexation of Czechoslovakia.

If France allies with Germany out of fear 100 million or more people probably die in Eastern Europe.

If France puts its head in the sand Germany can probably vassalize Poland and defeat the Soviet Union.

Britain probably gets involved in any all out war in the West regardless if it included the Low Countries.

America tends to like France and FDR dislikes Germany. If a long war goes on FDR will probably try to support France.

Japan is a wild card, albeit one with little reason to try to fight the West at this point.

France itself could change governments at some point due to the greater fear.


It seems like the possibilities are wide open with the 1930s craziness. The Nazis could fail to get off the ground or win the war in the East depending on what decisions are made.
 
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