What if both the unification of Germany and Italy failed and Prussia never rose?

libbrit

Banned
I think we can probably just about get away with not unifying Germany, but preventing the rise of Prussia as a power is pushing it.

In truth if Germany didnt unify, then we will probably just have a continuance of what we did have before-central europe and the German states dominated by the two German powers of Austria and Prussia.

So much of the same
 
I think we can probably just about get away with not unifying Germany, but preventing the rise of Prussia as a power is pushing it.

In truth if Germany didnt unify, then we will probably just have a continuance of what we did have before-central europe and the German states dominated by the two German powers of Austria and Prussia.

So much of the same

And what if Austria and Hungary would never form a mighty empire, and neither would the Ottomans do?
 
I think we can probably just about get away with not unifying Germany, but preventing the rise of Prussia as a power is pushing it.

In truth if Germany didnt unify, then we will probably just have a continuance of what we did have before-central europe and the German states dominated by the two German powers of Austria and Prussia.

So much of the same

Could a loss in the 7 years war curtail Prussia?
 
Could a loss in the 7 years war curtail Prussia?

Yep or more specifically, no Miracle of the House of Brandenburg. It would cause Prussia to be severely weakened. As for Italy, I'm not sure how butterflies happening a century before would effect Italian nationalism and unification. The only thing I can think of would be for France to decide to not support Sardinia-Piedmont. That way Sardinia wouldn't challenge Austria, leading to unification.
 
Yep or more specifically, no Miracle of the House of Brandenburg. It would cause Prussia to be severely weakened. As for Italy, I'm not sure how butterflies happening a century before would effect Italian nationalism and unification. The only thing I can think of would be for France to decide to not support Sardinia-Piedmont. That way Sardinia wouldn't challenge Austria, leading to unification.

Butterflies on individuals, for instance. Different circumstances for Austria - which gains significantly with Prussia weakened (at a minimum, it gets Silesia back).

Different circumstances within Italy, since there's probably no Napoleonic Wars (among other things, no Austrian "compensation" within Italy, beyond their pre-existing Italian territories).

Different circumstances in regards to France, without the same.

Different circumstances in regards to Poland (possibly) and Britain.

Really, things change a great deal.
 
Butterflies on individuals, for instance. Different circumstances for Austria - which gains significantly with Prussia weakened (at a minimum, it gets Silesia back).

Different circumstances within Italy, since there's probably no Napoleonic Wars (among other things, no Austrian "compensation" within Italy, beyond their pre-existing Italian territories).

Different circumstances in regards to France, without the same.

Different circumstances in regards to Poland (possibly) and Britain.

Really, things change a great deal.

That's kind of what I was thinking of. I'm not sure if Prussia being defeated would stop the french Revolution but I think it would stop the Napoleonic wars. If that's the case I'm not sure which, if any, country would be able to unite Italy. If the Two Sicilies were better managed then I'd put my money on them but I'm not sure. Would Prussia being reduced to Brandenburg cause a longer lasting Poland? Since this would be before the first partition I'm not sure. Poland was still weak and decentralized so either a rump Poland exists longer or its just partitioned between Russia and Austria. If thats the case, combined with Silesia, Austria would have become very invested in eastern Europe, maybe reducing its intrest in Italy for a time, I'm not sure.
 
That's kind of what I was thinking of. I'm not sure if Prussia being defeated would stop the french Revolution but I think it would stop the Napoleonic wars. If that's the case I'm not sure which, if any, country would be able to unite Italy. If the Two Sicilies were better managed then I'd put my money on them but I'm not sure. Would Prussia being reduced to Brandenburg cause a longer lasting Poland? Since this would be before the first partition I'm not sure. Poland was still weak and decentralized so either a rump Poland exists longer or its just partitioned between Russia and Austria. If thats the case, combined with Silesia, Austria would have become very invested in eastern Europe, maybe reducing its intrest in Italy for a time, I'm not sure.

Prussia being defeated impacts France, which impacts the Napoleonic Wars.

Prussia being reduced means that the partition happening in the first place (Frederick's idea OTL) is not a given. And Silesia would just be restored to Austria, not necessarily drawing Austria into Eastern Europe (besides concerns about Russia, which are the case anyway).
 
Prussia being defeated impacts France, which impacts the Napoleonic Wars.

Prussia being reduced means that the partition happening in the first place (Frederick's idea OTL) is not a given. And Silesia would just be restored to Austria, not necessarily drawing Austria into Eastern Europe (besides concerns about Russia, which are the case anyway).

True. The part I meant about the French Revolution was that they spend huge amounts of money on various wars and on the Court at Versailles. A victory in the seven years' war might help stave of the huge debt but I'm not sure. At the very least France would need extreme reform on the tax system to help pay the national debt, which means taxing the church and nobility. I suppose a victory could give the crown the prestige to do this but I'm not sure. If France continues the same way and has a Revolution, it might be even worse if Prussia's armies can't be added to the Coalition powers.
 
True. The part I meant about the French Revolution was that they spend huge amounts of money on various wars and on the Court at Versailles. A victory in the seven years' war might help stave of the huge debt but I'm not sure. At the very least France would need extreme reform on the tax system to help pay the national debt, which means taxing the church and nobility. I suppose a victory could give the crown the prestige to do this but I'm not sure. If France continues the same way and has a Revolution, it might be even worse if Prussia's armies can't be added to the Coalition powers.

They do spend a huge amount, but that doesn't necessarily mean revolution. Louis XVI is only a child (b. 1754) as of the POD, so he might be different in a different environment.

On the army issue:
Prussia early on wasn't really much use, however.
 
They do spend a huge amount, but that doesn't necessarily mean revolution. Louis XVI is only a child (b. 1754) as of the POD, so he might be different in a different environment.

On the army issue:
Prussia early on wasn't really much use, however.

Maybe, maybe not. There is enough time between the potential POD and the OTL Revolution to introduce reforms to fix the debt, but with a victory in the seven years war the government might be even more reluctant to reform. Maybe combining a victory with another butterfly for France, either Louis XV's son the Dauphin or the Dauphin's eldest son, the Duc de Bourgogne surviving to become King. On the part of Bourgogne, he seemed to be more intelligent then his brother but he was only a child when he died so we can't be sure. Or even different tutors being assigned to the future Louis XVI.
 
Maybe, maybe not. There is enough time between the potential POD and the OTL Revolution to introduce reforms to fix the debt, but with a victory in the seven years war the government might be even more reluctant to reform. Maybe combining a victory with another butterfly for France, either Louis XV's son the Dauphin or the Dauphin's eldest son, the Duc de Bourgogne surviving to become King. On the part of Bourgogne, he seemed to be more intelligent then his brother but he was only a child when he died so we can't be sure. Or even different tutors being assigned to the future Louis XVI.

Several possibilities. Even a small change is likely to alter the specifics of what happens - Louis was hardly inevitably going to get beheaded, for instance (meaning, he could have escaped).
 
Several possibilities. Even a small change is likely to alter the specifics of what happens - Louis was hardly inevitably going to get beheaded, for instance (meaning, he could have escaped).

The flight to Varness could succeed. Hell at the very least he might not be executed. The vote was supposedly close so enough deputies could vote against his death.
 
A Prussia collapse in the 7YW means an Austrian win but not a French win. France still loses in North America, in India, and had already been turfed out of Hannover.

In terms of future implications, the big question is what happens to the alliance structure. I imagine its in both Austria and France's interest to maintain their alliance: France so she can concentrate on Britain, and Austria so she doesn't face a two front war.
 
A Prussia collapse in the 7YW means an Austrian win but not a French win. France still loses in North America, in India, and had already been turfed out of Hannover.

In terms of future implications, the big question is what happens to the alliance structure. I imagine its in both Austria and France's interest to maintain their alliance: France so she can concentrate on Britain, and Austria so she doesn't face a two front war.

Depends on when Prussia collapses - and how long the war continues.
 
The flight to Varness could succeed. Hell at the very least he might not be executed. The vote was supposedly close so enough deputies could vote against his death.

Actually 361 deputies voted for the death of Louis XVI (the majority was at 361). But 44 others voted for death with suspension, and 26 voted for death with an amendment for discussing if it would be better to kill him now or latter. The other 290 voted mostly for detention until the end of war and exile after the end of war. All deputies present voted yes to the question of the culpability of Louis XVI or abstained.
 
Top