What if Belgium kept the Franco-Belgian accord of 1920?

I'm pretty interested in early ww2, and while I was writing a timeline, an interesting POD came to mind. What if Belgium stayed allied with France during ww2? As I was thinking about this, it really seemed to change the strategy. Would Germany still risk going to war with the allies? Would they attack at all? If so, what strategy? If the allies declared war on Germany in 1939 like OTL, it would definitely put both sides in a pickle. Hitler would need to attack sometime, because the mobilization and subsequent blockade would hurt the economy, but an attack would be costly. Also, the Manstein plan probably wouldn't work, given the fact that the allies would already be in place in belgium, and could move around fast enough. What are your thoughts? Some more perspectives (and probably better informed ones too) are always helpful.
 
Nothing important changes. Hitler won't care if Belgium is formally allied with France. Poland had a treaty with France and the UK, and that didn't stop Germany from invading in 1939.
 
The thing that changes is how the forces are deployed, both French, Belgian and British. An effective forward defense could be planned and implemented. IOTL the forward defences that the Allies had planned on didn't exist, and the Germans just rolled in, then when the Germans main thrust came through the Ardennes, they had to struggle back. A formal alliance means co-ordination in the military, so a lot changes. Would the Germans still attack? Yes. They miscalculated, the Allies issued DOW's, and the war began. Nothing changes in that aspect.
 
Presumably it means the belgian defensive lines are finished before the war breaks out. The original plan was for the Maginot and the belgian line (I forget the name) to form a contiguous line with the Ardennes being lightly covered on account of its supposed impassability for motorised units. When Belgium IOTL became neutral in 1936 the french were left with half a plan and had to rush to meet the germans. It may result in the germans being pinched off à la Blunted Sickle. It may just serve to make the Westfeldzug bloodier for both sides.
 
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German success in 1940 was not something granted. They almost didn't penetrate the French line and got lucky to target the site where French defences were the weakest.

Any change on the conditions of the Western Front, and a Franco-Belgian coordination would be a big one, could lead to a completely different outcome.
 
As said before, this allows the French to keep coordination with the Belgians and also be able to get in position by DOW-day to set up defenses. This might allow the French to save up more reserves, althought they might be tempted to go again for a mobile force to help the Netherlands now that there would be less distance to cross when the Germans invade (if they don't outright focus on the Franco-Belgians).

A non-neutral Belgium also wouldn't have the kind of procurement restrictions they put in place after 1936 to appease the Germans. While budget would still be a concern, they would have the possibility to purchase real tanks and more aircrafts (and finish defensive lines) before the war begins. All in all, a rather straightforward way to massively increase the chance of an Allied Victory, without major tradeoffs.

On top of that the French didn't really train much during the Phoney war and morale was somewhat low because they were going to move soon and the length of inactivity wasn't liked by the soldiers. If they are instead working on defenses in Belgium they might be more motivated.
 
The French and British motorized forces had to go in for a meeting engagement - here they would have supply bases, airfields, anti-air systems, prepared defensive lines, full cooperation with Belgian forces from day 1, a position within hopping distance to aid the Netherlands, no refugees blocking the roads, up-to-date-maps, decades of training in the actual battlefield they'd have to fight, and so on and so on. It's a massive change.

But why does Belgium volunteer to become a guaranteed main battlefield of a new world war?
 
The French and British motorized forces had to go in for a meeting engagement - here they would have supply bases, airfields, anti-air systems, prepared defensive lines, full cooperation with Belgian forces from day 1, a position within hopping distance to aid the Netherlands, no refugees blocking the roads, up-to-date-maps, decades of training in the actual battlefield they'd have to fight, and so on and so on. It's a massive change.

But why does Belgium volunteer to become a guaranteed main battlefield of a new world war?

They always kinda expected to become a battlefield, hence the alliance with France. But once it seemed like France wouldn't intervene anyway after the Rhineland remilitarization in 1936 Belgian politicians deemed it impossible to really defend the country so they tried to appease Germany as much as possible.

You can't prevent damage in Belgium in case of war, but maybe you can prevent the war.

So the POD would have to either involve France being less passive (which would be a huge POD in and of itself), or the Belgians still gamble on the idea that France may intervene at some point.
 
They always kinda expected to become a battlefield, hence the alliance with France. But once it seemed like France wouldn't intervene anyway after the Rhineland remilitarization in 1936 Belgian politicians deemed it impossible to really defend the country so they tried to appease Germany as much as possible.

You can't prevent damage in Belgium in case of war, but maybe you can prevent the war.

So the POD would have to either involve France being less passive (which would be a huge POD in and of itself), or the Belgians still gamble on the idea that France may intervene at some point.


I cant see the Germans invading Belgium just for the hell of it. An invasion of Belgium was always about getting at France, and the French know this, which to my mind puts the inactivity over Rhineland in a different kettle of fish. Also, why wouldn't such an agreement prod the French to oppose Germany's Rhineland adventure?
 
I cant see the Germans invading Belgium just for the hell of it. An invasion of Belgium was always about getting at France, and the French know this, which to my mind puts the inactivity over Rhineland in a different kettle of fish. Also, why wouldn't such an agreement prod the French to oppose Germany's Rhineland adventure?

Because the French were on the verge of a currency meltdown at the time Hitler made his move and Britain didn't want (as they saw it) the aggressive French starting WW2.

Hitler chose to make this move at a time of French weakness and if France is weak there's no way they are moving without British support even if Belgium are still allies.

But why does Belgium volunteer to become a guaranteed main battlefield of a new world war?

Well, up until the Belgians ended the treaty in 1936, the view was that if another Franco-German war started, they were doomed to be invaded by Germany whatever they did, so they may as well be a French ally so that defence plans could be coordinated and an outright disaster could be resisted.

Of course, in the face of rising tensions, French weakness, British opposition to efforts to enforce the ToV and their new King's biases, it seemed like the slim hope of neutrality was a better bet than continuing with the French alliance.

I'm pretty interested in early ww2, and while I was writing a timeline, an interesting POD came to mind. What if Belgium stayed allied with France during ww2? As I was thinking about this, it really seemed to change the strategy. Would Germany still risk going to war with the allies? Would they attack at all? If so, what strategy? If the allies declared war on Germany in 1939 like OTL, it would definitely put both sides in a pickle. Hitler would need to attack sometime, because the mobilization and subsequent blockade would hurt the economy, but an attack would be costly. Also, the Manstein plan probably wouldn't work, given the fact that the allies would already be in place in belgium, and could move around fast enough. What are your thoughts? Some more perspectives (and probably better informed ones too) are always helpful.

If Belgium is a French ally from the start of WW2, cooperation, while imperfect, is going to greatly change the war. The Belgians will be more prepared when the Germans try to break through their fortress line, will have mobilized reserves backed up by French re-enforcements (as well as perhaps the BEF) that will be starting much closer to the initial German thrusts and will be quicker to react. All in all, while there may be a breakthrough in the Ardennes, the country roads through this region are not enough to support a serious push on Paris or along the Franco-Belgian border. I don't know how much of Belgium will fall in such a scenario, but I think it improbable that it would be as bad as WW1. That said, the Allies can still mess this up. But even at the very, very worst case where the Allies completely fluff their efforts and Germany forces Belgium and France to surrender, the cost to Germany will be far, far higher meaning they need to substantially delay Barbarossa - if it happens at all, it would likely face a much more formidable Red Army, as in such a scenario, the Soviets have the time to complete their post Winter War reforms and vastly improve their equipment.

fasquardon
 
Presumably it means the belgian defensive lines are finished before the war breaks out. The original plan was for the Maginot and the belgian line (I forget the name) to form a contiguous line with the Ardennes being lightly covered on account of its supposed impassability for motorised units. When Belgium IOTL became neutral in 1936 the french were left with half a plan and had to rush to meet the germans. It may result in the germans being pinched off à la Blunted Sickle. It may just serve to make the Westfeldzug bloodier for both sides.

That Belgium Fortress line never got a name
Original it was planned to extend the Maginot line to Belgium
then modified to five big Fortress and line of Small Bunkers that connect to Maginot line

But in end only Four of those Fortress were build and additional Bunkers line never build, simply Belgium had not money for that.
instead the pre WWI fortresses of Liege and Namur were reinforced with concrete and better ventilation against Gas Attacks.
To make matter Worst the four Fortress were not equip with needed cannons to support each other, but got short range guns
So the Crews of Fort Tancrémont stand helpless against the Wehrmach Attacks on other three Fortress.
Another issue was that chaotic situation in Fort Eben-Emael that was used by Belgium army as a form of penal institution in 1930s
and litte issue that Commanding officers spoke only French, while solders only understand Netherlands...


Would had help a French-Belgium accord ?
it's depend of Situation and what strategy would be implied

Had the Belgium build there Five fortress with financial help of France
would be issue of there belgium Personal reacting right on situation
if yes Fall Gelb would serious delay by attempt to conquer the Five fortress while all five give each other support fire.
but still we got the Gap in Ardennes with Small Bunker line that would hinder the Wehrmacht, not stop them.
Now those bunker crew can inform High Command, that Wehrmacht try to passt the Ardennes
what was total surprise for Allies as that happened in WW2
Now informed what is happing the French and British could react and move there troops to intercept them better

during Fall Gelb the Allies forces had move into Belgium under assumption the Wehrmacht would redo the Schlieffen Plan of WW1
only to get informed that Wehrmacht force had move true the Ardennes and invaded France while Allies were waiting in Flanders.

But with even with five Fortress and Bunker line, the Wehrmacht is not stupid, the would just adapt there Strategy !
They simply with help of german Boy scouts would look for weak spots in defense line (like OTL)
Also adapt there plans for a "heckling" attack while small force attacks the Fortress from east
another much larger force could move over the Netherlands and attack from behind
Next to that the Germans would R&D for "Bunker buster" weapons used from Bombers
 
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Im no expert by all means on WWII but werent the belgians reason for dropping the french alliance that they became aware of french intention of having Belgium become the main battlefield - as France was determined to avoid the WWI like devastation of their own territory?
 
But with even with five Fortress and Bunker line, the Wehrmacht is not stupid, the would just adapt there Strategy !
They simply with help of german Boy scouts would look for weak spots in defense line (like OTL)
Also adapt there plans for a "heckling" attack while small force attacks the Fortress from east
another much larger force could move over the Netherlands and attack from behind
Next to that the Germans would R&D for "Bunker buster" weapons used from Bombers
Agree with the top of your post but I'm not sure that we are not very close to zero sum game without hindsight what do they give up for the "Bunker busters"? There are many reasons everybody went with mainly infective small GP bombs at the start of WWII, lack of testing and they are much cheaper and they fit easily in aircraft.....
 
Im thinking that the Germans would try the manstein plan, but wouldn't get a breakthrough, as the allies would be able to move troops quicker. Also, how long could both sides last? Hitler needs his victory fast, but the allies also have some pressure, specifically france, with its polarized politics.
 
Agree with the top of your post but I'm not sure that we are not very close to zero sum game without hindsight what do they give up for the "Bunker busters"? There are many reasons everybody went with mainly infective small GP bombs at the start of WWII, lack of testing and they are much cheaper and they fit easily in aircraft.....

They had Bunker Buster program, after Fall Gelb it got in higher gear and the Röchling system was tested on Belgium Fort Aubin-Neufchâteau with Success
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Röchling_shell

One of many Test Shells that hit lower level of Fort Aubin-Neufchâteau
https://live.staticflickr.com/3538/3639677416_1b4d0c9c6e_b.jpg
 
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