I don't think there's any doubt that with the Two Ocean Navy Bill, there is simply no way Japan can win a war with the U.S. However, the POD did specify a Japanese attack against the other imperial powers without an attack on the Philippines. Historically, it was shown that the conquest of the Philippines was not necessary for the invasion of the Dutch East Indies (I believe the Japanese did use it as a springboard to attack a few islands, but I imagine it would have been possible to substitute another location for the launching point). Thus, it seems likely that the Japanese could succeed in their conquest of the Southern Resource Area while ignoring the American possessions. The question then becomes: when/if the U.S. would get involved in the war in the Far East?
My thoughts are that without the USSR in the war, Roosevelt's attention is focused more intently on Europe. After all, presumably the Luftwaffe and the Heer are doing something instead of invading the Soviet Union. While it would be extremely difficult to support a panzer army or two in North Africa, with enough trucks perhaps the Axis powers could have the logistically support for another division or two and ensuring that the Africa Korps is kept adequately supplied when deep in Egypt. In addition, it's likely that an air war continues over the Channel, a low-intensity Battle of Britain (after the start of Barbarossa, the RAF faced on 2 Jadgeschwader(sp?) of German fighters in France, here there's likely quite a bit more as well as bomber groups). I thus believe that FDR's first concern is getting the US involved in the war against Germany, rather than helping the UK in the Pacific. So, perhaps the US lets Japan make its conquests without interfering. The key question to answer is thus when does the US get involved?
One thing to add is that even if Japan manages to take the SRA with its oil, iron, rubber, and rice, things are not peachy. First, the Japanese were never able to exploit the SRA as much as they expected. In terms of oil, production in the East Indies was 60 million barrels in 1940; production peaked after the Japanese conquest at 16 million a year. While I'm sure a part of that decline can be attributed to US action (submarines sinking ships bringing necessary materials to the Indies), I'd imagine a portion of that is the result of inadequate personnel and experience on the part of the Japanese. Also, Japan depended heavily on foreign hulls for her shipping needs: she needed ~10 million tons of shipping a year but only had 6 million tons. The deficit was filled mostly from the Allied powers (including the US). British and Dutch merchantmen will of course become unavailable after the start of the war. I imagine FDR will find certain parts of the Neutrality Act agreeable and ban American merchant ships from Japanese waters. Thus, Japan is going to struggle to keep her economy going even after the conquest of the SRA (though certainly not to the extent of OTL 1945).