What if Barbarossa and Pearl Harbor are delayed a year or more?

Don't forget he has the industry that wasn't lost when the Soviets lost everything west of Moscow...

Yea but he doesn't have the Studebacker company giving him tens of thousands of reliable trucks that were critical to motorizing the armored and infantry divisions... plus the mass mobilization entailed would be devastating to agriculture which was allready a serious Soviet weekness
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
Well been thinking about this some more, Will Britain still be in the fight?
No Daylight Bomber Offensives Until 1943 German Industry will be a bit better off, and possibly more effort put into Night Fighting so the British Night Bombing will probably get a bigger Hammering I would thinking the Germans still have similar Numbers of Heavy AA in Western Europe as will be needed against the British Heavies.

The Germans concentrating on the British would be a Bad thing. The resources in Africa with no Barbarossa, They can only supply so many Divisions there. Possibly only one more. Malta has to be taken probably an expensive operation. If Egypt Falls and the Canal got Taken, The Eastern Med will have to have the Mediterranean Fleet all pack up and Head West. The Sinai if Taken will mean that whole Coast up to Lebanon will not have safe Harbours. Italian Convoys can hug the coast for long Trips but would loose allot fewer ships.

I am thinking Malta would be reduced to Rubble and Taken sometime in this Timeline . Just too many Luftwaffe Aircraft around to make Malta impossible to supply. It is just too close to Italy. This is also not a timeline likely to have a USS Wasp help supply fighters to Malta like the 47 Supermarine Spitfire Mk V fighters in April 1942. Often lost on some people the help US navy was giving the British in 1942 in the Atlantic and Med

Malta is worth the total destruction of 2-3 Axis Divisions if taken in this scenario. If Hitler gets a better idea of how important Logistics are in the Med. Malta would not last 1941 without the build-up for Barbarossa. Malta Taken and Alexandria in Axis Hands the Italians can get Air cover all the way from Italy to Alexandria. Supply problems are massively less. Only the British Subs that are going to have to be based in Gibraltar will be able to affect Axis Supplies. If the Axis get as Far as Sinai the Game is over in the Med, as British supply Lines will just become to long, most of the Italians Logistics will be solved. Shortage of shipping yes, But will not have the Mass of losses like they had OTL Getting past Malta. Minus what shipping they Loose Taking Malta.

What will Spain do in this situation? Probably/Hopefully stay out, but if they allow Troops to be let in to siege Gibraltar what can Britain do. Invade not likely without a US onside. In that Case Gibraltar Gone and Malta There will be No North African Campaign only an Arabian Campaign that can only be supplied By Britain Going around Africa. Axis with totally secured Supply lines. If Gibraltar is not taken The eastern Med will have at least much more secure supply.

If Rommel Can Keep fighting as in OTL with supply lines a long as he had from Tunis. If Alexandra Falls the Distance to Palestine is much Shorter. With very little chance of Major Naval assets in the area. Supply line now goes from the Radius of Alexandra. The Egyptian Red sea Coast will become a Axis control airbase to totally close the Red sea. Do the Italians need to Cross that no. Just deny Britain. A number of ifs there but doable.
Battle of the Atlantic might be Interesting as the B24 might get to Britain in Numbers to be used in ASW is the US not using them and building reasonable numbers.

How big the US can Build Forces without actually being in a War would be interesting, I can see a Moderate cut in numbers of Aircraft Ships and Tanks built (yet the infrastructure being built). But for me how big an army can Roosevelt build without a War till Dec 1942?.

Until the Germans started concentrating on Russia Germany was kicking British ass everywhere and how is Britain doing moral wise without the Yanks being there in 1942.

Japan is in Massive problems early on. As Just the Numbers of Ships involved means there naval aspirations can be beaten by pure weight and quality of metal. And Cutting there Ability to move in the Pacific Theatre.
How many Grunts can the US Put on the ground for a African/European theatre in a hurry without being in the War? If there still is a War in the Med and if Britain is still fighting after being alone on a Massive loosing streak. Comes down to a single vote of no confidence in British parliament. For another Year.
 
I don't think there's any doubt that with the Two Ocean Navy Bill, there is simply no way Japan can win a war with the U.S. However, the POD did specify a Japanese attack against the other imperial powers without an attack on the Philippines. Historically, it was shown that the conquest of the Philippines was not necessary for the invasion of the Dutch East Indies (I believe the Japanese did use it as a springboard to attack a few islands, but I imagine it would have been possible to substitute another location for the launching point). Thus, it seems likely that the Japanese could succeed in their conquest of the Southern Resource Area while ignoring the American possessions. The question then becomes: when/if the U.S. would get involved in the war in the Far East?

My thoughts are that without the USSR in the war, Roosevelt's attention is focused more intently on Europe. After all, presumably the Luftwaffe and the Heer are doing something instead of invading the Soviet Union. While it would be extremely difficult to support a panzer army or two in North Africa, with enough trucks perhaps the Axis powers could have the logistically support for another division or two and ensuring that the Africa Korps is kept adequately supplied when deep in Egypt. In addition, it's likely that an air war continues over the Channel, a low-intensity Battle of Britain (after the start of Barbarossa, the RAF faced on 2 Jadgeschwader(sp?) of German fighters in France, here there's likely quite a bit more as well as bomber groups). I thus believe that FDR's first concern is getting the US involved in the war against Germany, rather than helping the UK in the Pacific. So, perhaps the US lets Japan make its conquests without interfering. The key question to answer is thus when does the US get involved?

One thing to add is that even if Japan manages to take the SRA with its oil, iron, rubber, and rice, things are not peachy. First, the Japanese were never able to exploit the SRA as much as they expected. In terms of oil, production in the East Indies was 60 million barrels in 1940; production peaked after the Japanese conquest at 16 million a year. While I'm sure a part of that decline can be attributed to US action (submarines sinking ships bringing necessary materials to the Indies), I'd imagine a portion of that is the result of inadequate personnel and experience on the part of the Japanese. Also, Japan depended heavily on foreign hulls for her shipping needs: she needed ~10 million tons of shipping a year but only had 6 million tons. The deficit was filled mostly from the Allied powers (including the US). British and Dutch merchantmen will of course become unavailable after the start of the war. I imagine FDR will find certain parts of the Neutrality Act agreeable and ban American merchant ships from Japanese waters. Thus, Japan is going to struggle to keep her economy going even after the conquest of the SRA (though certainly not to the extent of OTL 1945).
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
Same for Imperial Japan. With no action against American territory and forces (Philippines, Guam, etc.) on December 7, while still attacking Hong Kong, Singapore, Indochina, non-American Pacific oil sources, etc, would they have fared better by 1945?

My Bad for not thinking if this part in Detail. See earlier Post. Japan not fighting the US while doing this would Push Britain over the Edge.

I am thinking it would be Hard to go for places like the Solomon’s without fighting the US.

Hong Kong, Singapore, Indochina and the Dutch East Indies are Possible.

How more none interventionist can you make the US.

Japan is going to have to have some resources facing the US while taking these places and will be stretching hard to get there.

With no US Navy to Face the British Navy is in for a hard time they just do not have an Answer to Japanese Carrier groups.

Could easily see something like OTL's Indian Ocean Raid happen a few times, And Warspite the Old R Class Battle ships already OTL had a Lucky escape.

Imagine in 1942 No US Navy fighting and a Royal Navy Task Force of Warspite 4 R Class Battleships 3 Carriers with less than 100 aircraft some cruisers and Destroyers Getting sunk by a Japanese Task Force including 4 Battle Cruisers and 6 Carriers with Almost 300 Rather Superior Aircraft. ( if not More Carriers without the Loses of Aircraft Pearl Harbour and other actions)

Harder Fighting in North Africa and now no way of stopping the Japanese Fleet. Will Britain realise it has the Resources to fight on against the Forces in only 1 Theatre? Not win but keep Fighting.

I do not know the way US Press will react is there a pro Republican Paper that would run a Headline like ?

“ Roosevelt’s Embargo plan backfires forcing Japanese to Declare War in beleaguered British Empire “

I really do not know

Just think even more Likely to have Britain out of the Fight. By end of 1942
 
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Wilhelm Ritter Von Thoma did an extensive staff study in Libya for the OKW and showed that 4 German divisions could be supplied along with about 8 Italian ones (larger numbers were in fact supplied later in the campaign when the fighting was into Tunisia.

The main thing the Germans could committ to control the med is aircraft. In 1941 the British had gladiators and a handful of Hurricaines in Africa because their most modern designs and best pilots were urgently needed for home defense from the Blitz... Raeder and Goring both supported deploying Luftflotte 2 to the Med (with over 500 aircraft)... this would have been more than enough to cover convoys to Libya and smash any British ships that tried to mess with them.

Manstein in Africa explored this exact idea in some depth (barbarossa postponed, germans focus on north africa, germans go after malta) albeit it might have strayed into slight wank territory the ideas answer this question rather honestly

The truth was that the British army was gutted after dunkirk and without 85 percent of the german war economy fighting russia they were screwed in the longrun without american help and maybe even with it
 
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