Staying Pagan depends on the power of the Mongols. If the Golden Horde loses control over Russia there is nothing to stop the crusaders to exterminate paganism. The latest I see it being delayed is up until Timur arrives to kick Golden Horde butt.Suppose the Baltic pagans sought and received protection from the Mongols, allying against the Teutons and Livonian crusaders. Could they stay pagan? Which side of Christianity do they ultimately accept without forced conversion by conquest?
The Baltic pagans (i.e. basically only Lithuania and a few minor tribes at that point) were kind of allied with the Golden Horde in OTL. I mean... it was never official, but knowing that the two basically never fought, the Lithuanians pacified unruly Russian principalities by conquering them and continuing to pay the Mongols tribute, Golden Horde khans usually fled to Lithuania if they needed to escape, and that the two forces often raided the same places and got along, shows that there was a sort of symbiotic relationship happening.
You know, "symbiotic relationship" is actually a more accurate term for that, because the difference in power and standing between the two is so massive and the Golden Horde cared so little about the Balts that it may as well be described in the same way as the interactions between a human and the bacteria in his intestines.
This is also why I think an outright vassalship is unlikely, because A - the Golden Horde couldn't care less about a bunch of pagans in the northwest; B - the Golden Horde would gain nothing from it, and it might even be detrimental for them, because they would lose an important factor in Russian principality management.
There are only two notable known engagements between the Golden Horde and the Lithuanians throughout the entirety of the 13th and 14th centuries, as far as I am aware.The Mongols within the region, never engaged the Traditional faith tribes in the Baltic region? That seems quite extraordinary.
There are only two notable known engagements between the Golden Horde and the Lithuanians throughout the entirety of the 13th and 14th centuries, as far as I am aware.
The first one is a punitive raid conducted by the Mongol general Boroldai in 1259, which, while described as damaging to the Lithuanian lands, resulted in little to no long-term effects (partially because the Lithuanians hid in forests and castles instead of engaging the Mongols in battle, and Boroldai, having a million better things to do, simply left).
The second is the Battle of Blue Waters in 1363, which, while hyped up by modern Lithuanian and Ukrainian historians as a sort of "our Kulikovo", is barely present in 14th century sources, and the first detailed description of the battle comes from the Bychoviec Chronicle, which is notoriously a 16th century Lithuanian propaganda piece.
Depending on how you spin it, the Battle of the Vorskla in 1399 may also count, but that was a fight against Timur's generals who took over the Golden Horde, and it's khan actually fought on the Lithuanian side.
The problem is, again, that the Baltics can't give anything the Mongols don't already have. Without any expansion into the Russian principalities (which would definitely be blocked by this proto-EU or however you can describe it best), Lithuania is a poor, sparsely inhabited forested land with no major towns or unique trade goods controlled a fiercely independent pagan duchy. Why bother with them? Plus, holding Lithuania might even be detrimental to them, as including the Baltic tribes into the Mongol sphere would put the Horde in direct conflict with the Teutonic Knights, and while I am sure the Mongols would likely prevail in that fight, it would further deteriorate their relations with Catholic Europe.Hmm interesting. Though, from cursory reading, it would seem that this would not fully fit a vassal relationship.
Perhaps, the Mongols/Golden Horde fail to convert to Islam and remain relatively pagan in some ways and try to bridge the gap between Islam and Christendom. The Mongols thus, attempt to create a series of more pronounced vassal relations, similar to that of China or even the Holy Roman Empire. They basically create a large scale system of mutual benefit in the region for being under their protection and paying tribute, in exchange, the Mongols provide them goods from Asia, protection from crusaders, upholding of church traditions and a civilizing process of mixing Mongol-Chinese and European customs.
I am not a master of this area, but how does this sound? The Balts would immediately almost be included in this system.
The problem is, again, that the Baltics can't give anything the Mongols don't already have. Without any expansion into the Russian principalities (which would definitely be blocked by this proto-EU or however you can describe it best), Lithuania is a poor, sparsely inhabited forested land with no major towns or unique trade goods controlled a fiercely independent pagan duchy. Why bother with them? Plus, holding Lithuania might even be detrimental to them, as including the Baltic tribes into the Mongol sphere would put the Horde in direct conflict with the Teutonic Knights, and while I am sure the Mongols would likely prevail in that fight, it would further deteriorate their relations with Catholic Europe.
Also, while I'm definitely not a professional on Mongol history, I feel like this proposal would require some serious differences in the mindset of the Golden Horde khans.
Well, it is more about prestige and imperial building than in what one offers. The Empires of China always sought to have innumerable tributaries and vassals, despite them having all they needed. It was primarily for prestige and for extensions of Power outward, irregarding the economic benefit.
It is not a stretch to have a Mongol state to have these opinions. Simply put, apply foreign policies of Chinese imperial states to the Mongol hordes of the Golden Horde.
Well the Mongols did go after Chechnya (with mutually disastrous results), so it wouldn't be unprecedented.Lithuania is a poor, sparsely inhabited forested land with no major towns or unique trade goods controlled a fiercely independent pagan duchy. Why bother with them?