What if Ayrton Senna had survived his San Marino GP accident?

[lustigson]

And now for something completely different... at least, that's what some searches imply, 'cause there isn't a single thread on motor racing or Formula One on the forum. Yet.

As many of you might know, in 1994, at the San Marino Grand Prix, famous triple World Champion Ayrton Senna died after crashing his Williams-Renault race car. Since then, many pundits have speculated about what would have happend in the eventful season that followd, if Senna had survived the crash. I've decided to write a (e-)book on this very subject, and would like to hear your views on it.

Here's what I posted on my site:

What if Ayrton Senna had survived his crash at the 1994 San Marino Grand Prix? How would he have faired against Michael Schumacher in the Benetton-Ford? What might have happened in the seasons that followed? All very interesing questions which have been discussed at length on various forums over the years. But no-one has come up with the answers. Yet.

I have been working on a story about this infamous season in Formula One. A story in which Ayrton Senna is not killed at the Imola circuit on May 1, 1994. A story in which he returns to the wheel of his Williams-Renault, and takes on Michael Schumacher for the World Championship.

So, it’s an alternative history story. And the point of divergence takes place just after Senna’s crash. Where in real life the Brazilian perished, he now regains conscience in hospital. And after a mere two days in observation by the doctors, Senna returns to his home in Monte Carlo. Where, just under a fortnight later, he competes in the Monaco Grand Prix.

From there the season moves on. With main protagonists for the ‘94 title Michael Schumacher, and Ayrton Senna. What happens? Who wins and who loses the 13 remaining Grands Prix? And who lifts the World Championship after a fierce battle across the planet? Read ‘The Encounter Down Under: an alternate history of the 1994 Formula One season’.
​

I'd like to hear your views on the subject. For more info on the story, my progress, and the ready-to-read prologue, see www.encounterdownunder.com.

 

[Jason]

If I remember aright, weren't there a number of safety changes introduced into the sport after his death? Without those changes F1 might have not have gone down the route of all the controls on the cars, which whilst made the racing safer, did lead many to feel went too far and took some of the excitement out of the races.

 

[lustigson]

That's right, Jason. And I had some serious thought about what to do about those changes. 'Cause I could do 2 things:

1. Rewrite the story to such extent that the rule changes, which were implemented due to the death of both Ratzenberger and Senna, would not have happened, or only happened in part.
2. Assume that, even though Senna would survive his accident, the ruleswould still have been changed, since Ratzenberger was the first fatality in F1 since 1986 (De Angelis died while testing a Brabham).

Eventually, I opted for number 2, not only because it would make rewriting the 1994 season much, much easier, but also because the story would remain close to what really happened on the track, just with different driver(s) in the cars, which, would make the story more recognisable for readers.

 

[ranoncles]

It seems unlikely that the FIA would have introduced sweeping new regulations to the cars to improve safety. Don't forget, Barrichello had a hideous accident on Friday which he survived without serious injury, indicating there was nothing really wrong with the current crash regulations.

Ratzenberger died because he damaged his car and kept going at racing speed instead of heading to the pits with reduced speed. When his front wing broke, he could not control the car any longer and smashed into the wall. The basic crash protection of the car was not at fault, nor excessive speed. It was a driver error.

The amount of additional accidents during the Imola Grand Prix (spectators wounded in the Lamy incident and Alboreto's near crash in the pits) would have led to improved safety/procedures but the cars would not have been effected.

Senna's death was an entirely different ball game. The FIA panicked after the global outpour of grief (Dianaesque in its exaggerated hysteria) and needed to be seen to have acted. In hindsight, they overdid it as many people will now acknowledge.

How would Senna's survival have impacted F1?

On a human level, many people would not have become fans as Senna's death made huge numbers of people aware of F1 and spectator figures rose dramatically after his death. Senna was deified after his death but before he was a very dirty driver albeit charismatic. Schumacher would not have become F1's bad boy with his ruthless driving as Senna was the originator of that style. Barrichello would not have been become such a mentally weak wreck, always crying and thinking of Senna while Gerhard Berger would not be able to live off having been Senna's buddy.

On a sporting level, 1994 belonged to Benetton. Or rather the Benetton driven by Schumacher. Although Hill made it a championship fight, that was only due to Schumacher's penalties brought on by Schumacher's juvenile attempts to outpsych Hill after Senna's death. He would never have attempted that with Senna while Senna would not have been able to reduce his points deficit without Schumacher being penalized or retiring in many races.

1995 would probably fall to the Brazilian. Williams historically had the better car but succumbed to Benetton's superior race strategies and Schumacher's speed. Senna's speed would largely have been a match for Schumacher and his ability to read a race was far superior to Hill's.

This would butterfly Schumacher's move to Ferrari. Not only would Schumacher not have been a well-deserved double WDC, Ferrari wouldn't be offering a king's ransom to entice him either. Perhaps Ferrari would try (again) to sign Senna instead.

If Senna went to Ferrari, he would have scored a handful of victories but not have won any titles. Senna's abilities were similar to Prost's (or Schumacher's) in that regard, e.g. he still would have needed a good car. Ferrari needed the overhaul Brawn & Byrne provided before being able to compete with the English teams. Without them, they would have been occasional race winners but not title challengers.

Had Senna stayed at Williams, another title in 1996 would have been a piece of cake, assuming he still had it at 36.

After that, retirement might have been on the cards. He would have won the championship 5 times, equaling the great Juan Manuel Fangio, whom he greatly admired. And he would be getting on in years, hounded by the likes of Schumacher and Hakkinen in their prime.

He would face the choice of retiring with his prestige intact like Prost did and Schumacher would do in 2006 or stay and slowly gravitate to the higher end of the grid, beaten by a young team mate like Piquet experienced.

 

[Archibald]

Like this thread very much

After that, retirement might have been on the cards. He would have won the championship 5 times, equaling the great Juan Manuel Fangio, whom he greatly admired. And he would be getting on in years, hounded by the likes of Schumacher and Hakkinen in their prime.

Yes. He had started around 1984, so 1997 seems enough.

Btw I thought about this scenario before.
I thought about a peculiar race, the spanish GP in june 1996. Exactly what Senna liked - HUGE rain, a bit like Donington 1993...

Schumacher would not have become F1's bad boy with his ruthless driving as Senna was the originator of that style. Barrichello would not have been become such a mentally weak wreck, always crying and thinking of Senna while Gerhard Berger would not be able to live off having been Senna's buddy.

Wow, this is a bit harsh for some F-1 drivers!

Had Senna stayed at Williams, another title in 1996 would have been a piece of cake, assuming he still had it at 36.

Excellent. Maybe he could have stayed there in 1997, too, thus becoming World champion instead of Villeneuve?
A Villeneuve- Senna duel would be something...
Then retirement in 1998, the Mc Laren were irresistible this year...

 

[lustigson]

Ratzenberger died because he damaged his car and kept going at racing speed instead of heading to the pits with reduced speed. When his front wing broke, he could not control the car any longer and smashed into the wall. The basic crash protection of the car was not at fault, nor excessive speed. It was a driver error.

Thanks for your elaborate reply. You make some good points, especially on Ratzenberger's accident.

Btw I thought about this scenario before. I thought about a peculiar race, the spanish GP in june 1996. Exactly what Senna liked - HUGE rain, a bit like Donington 1993...

That would have been something, indeed. Especially since there could have been a chance that not Schumacher, but Senna would have been in that Ferrari. Remember that Schumacher had a three-year contract, ending only late 1996, while Senna, IIRC, had a two-year deal with Williams, freeing him up to drive for the Scuderia in '96.

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

Wow, this is a bit harsh for some F-1 drivers!

Harsh, but it might be true. Barrichello before his accident and Senna's death had promise. After... he's a good development pilot, but he simply isn't competitive.

 

[Archibald]

Never realised before that Senna death had been such a trauma for Barichello.

Btw Coulthard (today elder Formula one pilot in activity) would not start Formula one driving a Williams in 1994.

Considering the fate of many "promising-but-obscure-and-quickly-forgotten" test pilots, would Coulthard ever become a Mc Laren pilot (for example) later ?

Another killer race for Senna would be this crazy Belgium Grand prix of 1998, remember this one ? (maybe a bit late for him, 14th season...)

Oh, and Monaco 1996 was something Senna would have loved, too... probably its 8 th victory there

 

[TheMann]

Senna was also headed another direction in 1994. Talk was that he was looking at Indycars, just to be teammates with his childhood hero, Emerson Fittipladi. That has a good chance at happening, IMO. He'd won three F1 titles, and Emmo was driving for the mighty Team Penske, which dominantly won the 1994 Indycar title for Al Unser Jr. Senna tested a Penske-Chevrolet Indycar at Firebird Raceway in 1993, and was positively in love with it.

Paul Tracy left Penske after 1994, but Senna was signed to Williams for 1995. Senna would then have arrived at Penske in 1996, and done a couple seasons with Fittipaldi and Unser before Emmo retired and Tracy came back. Tracy left Penske for good after 1997.

Likely result? A couple CART titles for Senna, perhaps if there is no open wheel split (a possibility that a megastar like Senna could bring about), perhaps an Indy 500 or two to sit next to those F1 titles. He then retires from open wheelers in the early 2000s. Probably moves to sportscar racing on a part-time basis after that, perhaps wins a Le Mans or two.

He finally hangs it up in the mid or late 2000s and puts his energy towards his nephew Bruno work his way into the ranks.

If he stays in F1?

He fights Schumacher very hard for the 1994 title, perhaps his fourth F1 title. Williams was outclassed in 1995, but Senna would likely have a win or two as he did with McLaren in 1993. Hill would look like a sucker next to Aryton (he always did), so he goes instead of Coulthard for 1996, and it pairs Senna against Villeneuve. That woulda been a fight that the struggling Ferrari squad and the fast but not fast enough Benettons could beat. If he could keep it going, he'd almost certainly dominantly win the 1996 Monaco GP, since only three cars crossed the line in that race in OTL.

In 1997, Ferrari would be in the ascendant, and Senna undoubtedly would still be fast but the rivalry between him and Villeneuve might make their lives harder or make Schumacher's life harder, could be either. If Villeneuve and Senna go after each other in a battle for the title, Schumacher as good as he is simply wouldn't have the car to do it.

1998 would likely be his last season before retirement, and at 38 he'd be positively ancient among F1 drivers. Williams sucked that year, and Villeneuve would probably outclass him. From there, to Le Mans.

I can see him at Porsche's Le Mans squad for 1998 - immense prestige - and I can see him, McNish and Ortelli being a squad, and winning the 1998 24 Hours of Le Mans. He probably goes to Toyota's big money squad for 1999, which also has the possibility of winning - they lost 1999 because of bad luck.

Senna would not EVER drive for Ferrari. Reason? Prost. Senna hated Prost's guts after the end of the 1989 F1 season at Suzuka, and Senna always saw Ferrari as Prost's squad.

 

[Archibald]

1998 would likely be his last season before retirement, and at 38 he'd be positively ancient among F1 drivers. Williams sucked that year, and Villeneuve would probably outclass him. From there, to Le Mans.

Seems the 14th season is the last for many pilots.
Btw Prost was born in 1955 and retired at 38 in 1993. Add five years (1960-1998) and here's Senna.

I like the scenario above, aside the 1998 season which seem a bit sad to me.

Here's my variant...

Whatif Senna goes back to Mc Laren in 1998 just for its last formula 1 season ?
I agree with the "ferrari -senna case" mentionned above, no chance Senna ever drive for the Scuderia.

Were Senna and Dennis still in good terms ?


Just 10 years ago (in spring 1998) Coulthard and Hakkinnen Mc Larens simply smashed their competitors (1.5 second a lap faster!)


With such lethal weapon Senna could have had another title, its competitors being of course Hakkinen and Shumacher.

He would have won its 5th (or 6th, depend from the 1994 -1996 era) title at the Belgium GP I 've already mentionned.

The perfect end to its F1 carier : revealed under torrential rain at Monaco 84, it end 14een years later with a title won... under heavy rain.

Senna, master of rain!

Or, even better, he can do to Hakkinen what Lauda did to Prost in 1984-1985 : 1984 is MY year, and I help you the following year before retiring...

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

Never realised before that Senna death had been such a trauma for Barichello.

My personal opinion: It wasn't so much the trauma of Senna's death(although it may have been considerable), but the crushing weight of expectations. After Senna died, there was no single great, young, Brazilian sportsman in activity in high-profile events. As a result, the leading Brazilian TV network(which broadcasts F-1 races still today) began hailing Barrichello as the new Senna, someone whose career was just about to take off.

This stunt, almost certainly done in order to keep interest in F-1 high, made a lot of people turn their hopes to Barrichello, who didn't deliver(OK, he wasn't in a top-performance team, but remember what Senna did on a Toleman in 1984). After a while, people simply gave up on him. The move to Ferrari rekindled hopes, but being Schumacher's bitch made things worse. Barrichello has been the butt of jokes for some time(at least 6 years).

BTW, TV Globo would find young heroes later: Ronaldo, around 1996-97, then Ronaldinho, and now Robinho. They still try to see the brighter side on Barrichello's races, but I don't think many people believe them.

 

[TheMann]

Seems the 14th season is the last for many pilots.
Btw Prost was born in 1955 and retired at 38 in 1993. Add five years (1960-1998) and here's Senna.

I like the scenario above, aside the 1998 season which seem a bit sad to me.

I don't think 1998 was sad at all. McLaren rose back into the heavens in 1998 and handed Mr. Grin man (Schumacher) and his overrated Ulsterman (Irvine) teammate their butts, after Grin man's disgusting attempt to smash his way to the '97 World Championship.

What you could do is have BMW show up early. Renault was headed out in 1998, and just have BMW (who first showed in 2001) come in a bit early. In 1998 they were gearing up to win at Le Mans (which they did in 1999), but you could have them go for both simultaneously. The arrival of BMW - with whom Senna got started through Toleman - might keep both Villeneuve and Senna in the game a little longer, perhaps long enough to pass the torch to Montoya and a new teammate. I never thought Ralf Schumacher was good enough to win a WDC. Perhaps you could butterfly away another sad loss and have Greg Moore survive his 1999 Fontana CART crash, have him win the CART titles in 2000 and 2001 (perhaps win an Indy 500 while's he's at it) and then have him ride with Montoya for 2002. That combination plus a powerful BMW engine and a good Williams chassis is a Championship in the making. Ralf was good but not that good. Montoya and Moore would be a positively deadly combination.

Whatif Senna goes back to Mc Laren in 1998 just for its last formula 1 season ?
I agree with the "ferrari -senna case" mentionned above, no chance Senna ever drive for the Scuderia.

Were Senna and Dennis still in good terms ?


Just 10 years ago (in spring 1998) Coulthard and Hakkinnen Mc Larens simply smashed their competitors (1.5 second a lap faster!)

This has the problem of who do you sack? The '98 Mclaren lineup of Hakkinen and Coulthard had stood since '95 and worked well because the two liked each other.

With such lethal weapon Senna could have had another title, its competitors being of course Hakkinen and Shumacher.

Assuming Hakkinen and Schumacher didn't smoke him. Hakkinen in particular wouldn't be far back, and in the same car between aged Senna and experienced Hakkinen it would be anybody's all game.

Or, even better, he can do to Hakkinen what Lauda did to Prost in 1984-1985 : 1984 is MY year, and I help you the following year before retiring...

That would indeed be a fitting end, as Lauda's end was. But Senna may not have had that sort of patience - he was positively ruthless, and while Hakkinen was no badass he was not pushed around easily, either.

 

[Archibald]

The '98 Mclaren lineup of Hakkinen and Coulthard

Sack Coulthard! In fact it would be "butterflied away" thanks to Senna survival

Assuming Hakkinen and Schumacher didn't smoke him. Hakkinen in particular wouldn't be far back, and in the same car between aged Senna and experienced Hakkinen it would be anybody's all game.

I would say a fiery battle between the two Mc Laren pilots.

 

[TheMann]

Sack Coulthard! In fact it would be "butterflied away" thanks to Senna survival

Coulthard didn't suck though, and that relationship always worked well. Was Senna better? Probably. Perhaps you could have Senna stay at Williams for two years and then move to McLaren in 1996, and have Coulthard debut at another squad - perhaps he runs at Jordan for '94 and '95, and then moves to Benetton for '96. That would put him up front for that time. That would have him replace Berger at Benetton though, but Gerhard was long past his prime by then though. Alesi and Coulthard could be a great pairing too.

So in 1996 you have this:

McLaren - Ayrton Senna, Mika Hakkinen
Ferrari - Michael Schumacher, Eddie Irvine
Williams - Jacques Villeneuve, Damon Hill
Benetton - David Coulthard, Jean Alesi

But I prefer my BMW early arrival idea.

I would say a fiery battle between the two Mc Laren pilots.

Perhaps. But that battle could turn bad for both of them. Witness 1999. After Schumacher broke his leg at Silverstone, that title should have been a McLaren walkover, but the battles between Coulthard and Hakkinen caused problems and allowed Irvine and Frentzen to close up and challenge for the title. Frentzen didn't lose it until he hurt himself at Suzuka and Irvine stayed in it until Hakkinen dominated at Suzuka and Coulthard was hurt in that horrible pileup at Monza.

What could conceivably happen is Williams gets a little better car and Jordan gets to the front a little earlier, and then Senna and Hakkinen have not only Schumacher and Irvine chasing them, they also have Frentzen and Villeneuve to worry about, too.

 

[Archibald]

Ok, I try to summarize some basic elements we have here

This would be the line I would follow if I wrote my own alt-history on Senna.
Of course it's only my way of seing things, other variants are cool, too (particularly Indycar Senna, he would have something to see!)

- Senna had a two years contract with Williams, covering 1994 and 1995 seasons

- Depending from the 1995 season he can stay at williams and in this case he would won the 1996 championship

- As a consequence he's free at the end of 1996

- he retire at the end of 1998, this mean we have to find him a team for two seasons, 1997/1998

- he can't drive for Ferrari like Shumacher did at the beginning of 1996

- so he has to chose between staying at Williams (Villeneuve mate, then a very bad 1998 season)
or
- coming back to Mc Laren for the last phase of its carier

 

[Archibald]

Btw I like to see more threads like this one.
Some randoms ideas
- Villeneuve (Gilles)
- Alboreto World Champion 1985
- Stirling Moss (sounds obvious!)
- Didier Pironi (well, the whole season 1982 was tragic and fascinating, ending with Rosberg being World Champion - well someone had to become world champion this year )
And many others...

 

[TheMann]

Write what you like most Archibald, but as a very long time Indycar racing fan (first race was in Toronto in 1986, went to Portland Champ Car last year and will continue to go if possible) I love the Indycar idea. It's plausible too - he was in love with the Penske-Chevrolet Indycar he took a crack at. That was at the heyday of CART, when Nigel Mansell showed up and everyone expected him to clean everyone's clock - he won, but only after Paul Tracy and Emerson Fittipaldi made him put the hammer down all season.

Senna would retired from Formula 1 at the end of 1995, and headed to mighty Team Penske for the 1996 season. Assuming the open wheel split still happens, that woulda put Penske with Senna, Fittipaldi and Unser Jr for 1996, with Emmo being replaced by the returning Paul Tracy midway through 1996. I think Emmo would have gone on longer with Senna around - Emerson was Senna's hero and Emmo always found Senna amazing. Penske can't run four cars, so Paul Tracy may never return to Penske. Perhaps have him drive for Green in 1997 instead of Parker Johnstone.

 

[ranoncles]

I think the entire ‘Senna to CART’ angle is being overstated. Senna threatened to go to CART during a period of political turmoil and a lack of a competitive car. He had been feuding with the FIA and had been blown away (by his own standards) by the superior Williams active car. In 1992, Honda would soon be withdrawing from F1 while McLaren would have to switch to Ford semi-works engines for 1993. Not even a full works deal as Benetton had those sown up. Senna’s threat to go to CART must be seen in the same light as his offer to drive for Williams for free .

It was simply showboating and an attempt to get him a better deal/hand of cards in his perennial quest to become the world driver’s champion each and every season.

Fittipaldi was quick to offer his compatriot a test in a Penske and because Marlboro sponsored both Penske and McLaren, he was able to drive the car! Senna really enjoyed driving the low-tech car which placed a premium on driving skill, unlike the contemporary F1 cars. He also drove a McLaren-Chrysler/Lamborghini in a test in 1993 and claimed to like that combi. That also never amounted to much either !

But a switch to CART was never really on the cards IMO. Senna lived for F1, not motorsport in general. He did not compete in other series or one-off races. He wanted to compete against the best drivers in the world, in the most prestigious series. CART, for all its attractiveness to fans, was not a top notch series. It was a regional racing series, where F1 has beens and wannabes competed against a bunch of Americans of often dubious talent or elderly gentlemen with glorious pasts.

 

[lustigson]

Great thoughts, guys. Although I'll stick to the 1994 season for my book, for now.

Ok, I try to summarize some basic elements we have here

- Senna had a two years contract with Williams, covering 1994 and 1995 seasons
- Depending from the 1995 season he can stay at williams and in this case he would won the 1996 championship
- As a consequence he's free at the end of 1996
- he retire at the end of 1998, this mean we have to find him a team for two seasons, 1997/1998
- he can't drive for Ferrari like Shumacher did at the beginning of 1996
- so he has to chose between staying at Williams (Villeneuve mate, then a very bad 1998 season)
or
- coming back to Mc Laren for the last phase of its carier

I agree with some of your points, but have a different view on others. First of all, if Senna had won only a single title in either '94 or '95, Schumacher would probably have served out his three-year contract with Benetton, to get at least two titles with the team before leaving. This sees Schumacher at Benetton until the end of 1996.

So, after Senna wins either '94 or '95, he is free to go after that two-year Williams deal. With Montezemolo and Todt building up Ferrari and wanting to sign a superstar, I reckon they'd want now-four-time champion Senna (remember, Schumacher would still only have on title at most), and the Brazilian would probably like to end his career there.

With Senna at Ferrari for '96, and Schumacher still in a Benetton-Renault, chasing his second title, this likely leaves Hill and Coulthard at Williams... but now I'm probaly giving away too much of any possible sequels to my book...

One more thought: who would be a better substitute for Schumacher, when he breaks his leg in 1999, than Senna, while the German is either at, say, McLaren?

 

[TheMann]

I think the entire ‘Senna to CART’ angle is being overstated. Senna threatened to go to CART during a period of political turmoil and a lack of a competitive car. He had been feuding with the FIA and had been blown away (by his own standards) by the superior Williams active car. In 1992, Honda would soon be withdrawing from F1 while McLaren would have to switch to Ford semi-works engines for 1993. Not even a full works deal as Benetton had those sown up. Senna’s threat to go to CART must be seen in the same light as his offer to drive for Williams for free .

It was simply showboating and an attempt to get him a better deal/hand of cards in his perennial quest to become the world driver’s champion each and every season.

Fittipaldi was quick to offer his compatriot a test in a Penske and because Marlboro sponsored both Penske and McLaren, he was able to drive the car! Senna really enjoyed driving the low-tech car which placed a premium on driving skill, unlike the contemporary F1 cars. He also drove a McLaren-Chrysler/Lamborghini in a test in 1993 and claimed to like that combi. That also never amounted to much either !

But a switch to CART was never really on the cards IMO. Senna lived for F1, not motorsport in general. He did not compete in other series or one-off races. He wanted to compete against the best drivers in the world, in the most prestigious series. CART, for all its attractiveness to fans, was not a top notch series. It was a regional racing series, where F1 has beens and wannabes competed against a bunch of Americans of often dubious talent or elderly gentlemen with glorious pasts.

I think you might want to ask Bernie Ecclestone what he thought of CART. His opinions, and those of many F1 pilots, were rather different towards the regional racing series. Yes, some of the guys were older guys with glorious pasts - Emmo, Mario, Big Al Unser and AJ Foyt fit that mold. But guys like Robby Gordon, Raul Boesel, Bobby Rahal, Paul Tracy, Jimmy Vasser, Adrian Fernandez and Bryan Herta many F1 guys did consider them their equals.

As far as Senna F1 talks, I do not think that was just showboating. Sure as heck Penske took it seriously, because by then Mansell's arrival to CART was well known, and Penske did reportedly offer Senna a contract after his test in Arizona. Senna stayed in F1 and the seat went to Paul Tracy, who promptly made Mansell's life difficult when he came. Paul incidentially was offered the position to be Schumacher's teammate at Bennetton for 1995, but he preferred Indycar racing.