What if Austro-German Anschluss in the “Golden Twenties” of Weimar, summer 1929?

NoMommsen

Kicked
... aside described isolation ...
Due to violation of ToV cancelling of the Daws-plan, return to the London payments schedules and due to the to be expected german default on said payments seizure/confiscation of whatever german goods are globally in sight (once again whatever german ship is unlucky not being in home waters as some woulde be seized, if some countries authorities might not comply ... some ... Entente power will definitly file a flood of juridical cases to whoever would deny them their capture) but also i.e. confiscate whatever abroad bank account on german names might keeps, whatever ware house is german owned etc

.... would you count a reseizure of the Rheinkland (and ev. Ruhr-region as well) count as a non 'non conflict scenario' ?
 
... aside described isolation ...
Due to violation of ToV cancelling of the Daws-plan, return to the London payments schedules and due to the to be expected german default on said payments seizure/confiscation of whatever german goods are globally in sight (once again whatever german ship is unlucky not being in home waters as some woulde be seized, if some countries authorities might not comply ... some ... Entente power will definitly file a flood of juridical cases to whoever would deny them their capture) but also i.e. confiscate whatever abroad bank account on german names might keeps, whatever ware house is german owned etc

.... would you count a reseizure of the Rheinkland (and ev. Ruhr-region as well) count as a non 'non conflict scenario' ?
Depends on how the Reichswehr would react.
I don't see it really just letting it happen with the pan-German euphoria kicking in. So probably it would evolve into war.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
I miss any notion of the Geneva protocols of october 1922 which reaffirmed the verdict on austrian-german union of whatever kind may it be economically or politically. This was then international valid legislation.
Aside its political backing by France, Great Britain and Italy its economical 'weight' amounted to 198,0287075 t of gold (equalling the 650.000.000 Gold Kronen of the loan of the Geneva protocol enabling the austrain currency reform creating the Schilling in 1925).
A weight that should be considered to somehow counterweighted.

The two goverments (Austria and Germany) would have to find a way of somehow replacing/paying back the loan of the Geneva protocol. ... or at least a somewhat/somehow 'plausible' looking scheme to do and be able to do so.

As IOTL the french goverment would rather quickly tighten the finacial screws not only against the austrain and german banks and economies but also everbody else who might even begin to look favorable on the german-austrian project. France at that point of time HAD half to 2/3 of Europe by their financial balls with it on large reserves of gold (Gold Standard was again/still the call of the day).

Hmm, it seems like France's main leverage in constricting especially Austrian freedom of action was financial and terms of loan agreements. Could we somehow have Austria surprisingly pay of and liquidate its debt to France, and thus its associated debt terms, on a fast track, in some of the better years of the very late 20s? Perhaps with generous assistance/subsidy of the much better-performing at the moment Weimar Republic, or a Germany and Austria which manages to liquidate the older French debt and its terms by paying it off through refinancing it through mainly American and maybe British debt on much better and no-strings-attached terms?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
.... would you count a reseizure of the Rheinland (and ev. Ruhr-region as well) count as a non 'non conflict scenario' ?
Depends on how the Reichswehr would react.
I don't see it really just letting it happen with the pan-German euphoria kicking in. So probably it would evolve into war.
Rhineland and Ruhr are two drastically different things from a 1929 and 1930 perspective.

For the Rhineland, all the French need to do is delay their evacuation. They were still occupying positions there until 1930, so there is no reseizure if they stay there longer, and according to original Versailles, they had an entitlement to remain until 1935. But occupying the Ruhr would be considered a fresh invasion by the Germans, and that is something that the Germans could decide to fight by open force of arms to the best of their ability this time around, and not only passive resistance and sabotage.
 

NoMommsen

Kicked
Rhineland and Ruhr are two drastically different things from a 1929 and 1930 perspective.

For the Rhineland, all the French need to do is delay their evacuation. They were still occupying positions there until 1930, so there is no reseizure if they stay there longer, and according to original Versailles, they had an entitlement to remain until 1935. But occupying the Ruhr would be considered a fresh invasion by the Germans, and that is something that the Germans could decide to fight by open force of arms to the best of their ability this time around, and not only passive resistance and sabotage.
Sry I honestly apologize: you're fully correct (I somehow 'mixed' some time perceptions on my side atm)
The Rheinland occupation was to be ended by the Locarno Treaties from November 1929 onwards to the last french soldiern to be withdrawn on/until 30th June 1930.​

If ... the Ruhr might be again occupied ITTL ... the Reichswehr might have even less means to activly fight it (as there were in 1923 a plethora of semiofficial Freikorps still within and under Reichswehr surveillance).
Many would depend on how other nations (esp. the Great British Elephant in the room) would look at it and 'approve' or tolerate open, german, military actions.

Hmm, it seems like France's main leverage in constricting especially Austrian freedom of action was financial and terms of loan agreements. Could we somehow have Austria surprisingly pay of and liquidate its debt to France, and thus its associated debt terms, on a fast track, in some of the better years of the very late 20s? Perhaps with generous assistance/subsidy of the much better-performing at the moment Weimar Republic, or a Germany and Austria which manages to liquidate the older French debt and its terms by paying it off through refinancing it through mainly American and maybe British debt on much better and no-strings-attached terms?
... well ... a wee bit more complicated unfortunatly.
The Geneva 'loans' were issued by the austrian goverment on the open markets throughout Europe as well as the US of A (in the end there were emission on 11 different stock market in 10 different currencies) and were meant to run for 20 years with interest rates between 8 und 10 %.
Some ... members of the LoN 'only' guaranteed them to be served and paid to its overall worth :
21.8 % by France​
21.8 % by the UK​
21.8 % by Czechoslakia​
18.6% by Italy​
2 % by Belgium​
2 % by Switzerland​
1 % by Denmark​
1 % by the Netherlands​
with which they 'bought' themself a plce on the board of control which controlled the usage of the sales proceed as well as the individual conditions of emittance.​

However ... aside the UK in every of these countries french finances were 'active' in giving credits and loans. ... and thereby 'influencable' (it was a time of french-gold-imperialism in europe 😉).
Austria-Germany would have to find a way to ... 'rebuy' these loans piece by piece from the investors (of their composition I don't know anything - private, institutionally ...)

But ... yeah ... as part of the preparatory negotiations there should be somethinf set-up , maybe kinda new international loan guaranteed and at first also bought (at least partially at the beginning to ... become 'attractive' for other investors) by some german-austrain bans consortium maybe also backed by some mining operations in Germany as well as Austria (i.e. oil ?) as well as some (even if only low level ... or 'faked (?)') foreign preferrably US banks.
To get some 'twinky-winky' from british and US bankers and finalcial politicians might help as well ...

... problems might will only occure when black friday actually hits ... and all these paper-constructs collapse
 
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NoMommsen

Kicked
... foreign preferrably US banks.
To get some 'twinky-winky' from british and US bankers and finalcial politicians might help as well ...
As I'm not (enough) educated about :
Does anybody has an opinion and knowledge about how the late(r) Coolidge/very early Hoover adminsitration might think about such a project as the here discussed?​
... in general but also if ... such administration might be supportive of some additional loans - ofc strictly by private banks (... ?) - for the 'buy out' of the austrian loans of the Geneva protocols?
 
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