What if Austria-Hungary proves that Serbia was involved in the assassination of Franz Ferdinand?

Let's say that Austria-Hungary could prove that (at least large parts of) the Serbian government was involved in the assassination of Franz Ferdinand on the 28th of June 1914? What would be the fallout/butterflies of this? Would nothing change, or would it even have Prevented WW1 from happening? Thanks!

On another note, this is my first post here. Please tell me if I did something wrong!
 
The immediate causus belli would disappear. Russia could not afford to be seen as sponsoring a terrorist state and Tsar Nicholas would have personal concerns and objections. Hartvig wouldn't have been in a position to reassure the Serbs that Russia would back them to the hilt, more likely to be recalled in disgrace. Serbs forced to accept Austrian terms. Germany doesn't mobilize. All quiet until the next crisis !
 
Didn't we have the same thread a month ago? That's not a mistake, btw, just a strange coincidence.

There are a few problems with this premise. Like the idea that the Serbian government was involved in the assassination.

But, even we choose to sweep those problems aside, there's still one major problem.
Even if the Serbian government was actually involved in the assassination (which is a very controversial and unlikely idea - to put it mildly)...
...and even if Austria-Hungary found some kind of document revealing this...
...no one would believe them.

Why? Well, during the crisis of 1908-1909, there was a series of trials in Austria-Hungary. In these trials, the Austrian government tried to use a bunch of fake documents as an excuse to persecute the Serbian minority and prepare for a (potential) war against Serbia. However, the attempt blew up in A-H's face: the documents were outed as fakes, and there was a humiliating international scandal.

In other words, everyone knew that Vienna was not above using totally fake documents to push its agenda (especially when it came to Serbia). The Entente would likely see Vienna's "proof" as nothing more than another forgery.
 
Didn't we have the same thread a month ago? That's not a mistake, btw, just a strange coincidence.

There are a few problems with this premise. Like the idea that the Serbian government was involved in the assassination.

But, even we choose to sweep those problems aside, there's still one major problem.
Even if the Serbian government was actually involved in the assassination (which is a very controversial and unlikely idea - to put it mildly)...
...and even if Austria-Hungary found some kind of document revealing this...
...no one would believe them.

Why? Well, during the crisis of 1908-1909, there was a series of trials in Austria-Hungary. In these trials, the Austrian government tried to use a bunch of fake documents as an excuse to persecute the Serbian minority and prepare for a (potential) war against Serbia. However, the attempt blew up in A-H's face: the documents were outed as fakes, and there was a humiliating international scandal.

In other words, everyone knew that Vienna was not above using totally fake documents to push its agenda (especially when it came to Serbia). The Entente would likely see Vienna's "proof" as nothing more than another forgery.

Yes, the last thread was mine.

I didn't hear about those trials the last time around. Yeah, they could have video of the King of Serbia personally killing Franz Ferdinand and the Great Powers would probably still call them the Empire that cried wolf.
 
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