What if Austria-Hungary, Italy, and Portugal had spheres of influence in China?

In real life, Austria-Hungary and Italy had only foreign concessions in China and Portugal governed Macau. What if they, like the other powers on the attached map, had taken advantage of China's weakness and established spheres of influence?


Failing Chinese Empire.jpg
 
Impossible, Austrians and Italians are complete incapable of projecting that kind of power that far from Europe. Portugal is something I don't know too much about.
 
Impossible, Austrians and Italians are complete incapable of projecting that kind of power that far from Europe. Portugal is something I don't know too much about.

Why not? Italy was in China till 1943... Austria - Hungary till 1914, both powers had the ability to hold a city in China.
 
Really? Do explain how that's possible.

This part of history is a dark area of mine, I'm an antiquity kind of guy and I'm out of my element. Just seemed to me that Italy and Aust-Hungary were too Mediterranean focussed. Then again I am talking out of my ass.
 
Impossible, Austrians and Italians are complete incapable of projecting that kind of power that far from Europe. Portugal is something I don't know too much about.
Portugal did not take part in the Eight Nations Alliance, which is when the spheres of influence were established, so as such, they get nothing.
Why not? Italy was in China till 1943... Austria - Hungary till 1914, both powers had the ability to hold a city in China.
It's a geographical and monetary issue more than anything. Both the Italian and Asutro-Hungarian concessions were in districts of Tianjin. Neither Italy or Austria-Hungary ever controlled a full city sized concession in China. They also had to share the city with the Americans, the British, the French, the Japanese, the Russians, the Belgians and the Germans (so, pretty much all eight members of the alliance). No one would want to give them a sphere of influence because they were all supposed to share the city equally.
 
Impossible, Austrians and Italians are complete incapable of projecting that kind of power that far from Europe. Portugal is something I don't know too much about.
Portugal nope not possible. OTL they had enough difficulty during the height of their power to hold onto macau. There is a reason they couldnt make much inroads into china. Italy impossible, their navy was a joke and they were a med power. How will they project power in china?
AH: Err, where is this magical uber-ostreich navy with logistics to transport uber armies to china. Maye if Austria kept Belgium and Netherlands?
 
Portugal nope not possible. OTL they had enough difficulty during the height of their power to hold onto macau. There is a reason they couldnt make much inroads into china. Italy impossible, their navy was a joke and they were a med power. How will they project power in china?
AH: Err, where is this magical uber-ostreich navy with logistics to transport uber armies to china. Maye if Austria kept Belgium and Netherlands?
That's not really what the spheres of influence were about at all.

The Chinese spheres were mainly concerned with construction and resource rights, mostly railroads and mines. The military focus only came into play for Russia or Japan (in which case they were trying to make territorial gains and all) or just for the purpose of defenses or policing. The fortification of the Tsingtao concession or operation of American riverboats for example.

From a logistical standpoint the primary constraints of maintaining the concessions and spheres were monetary and profit concerns along with political, not military (though the lack of military ability is related to political standing among the Eight Nations if you can barely contribute).
 

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Donor
The Italians actually did make a play for their own territory in, IIRC, 1898-99. After Adowa and the Bava-Beccaris massacre they looked to China for some nice morale boosting, prestige creating, Empire building. They put a demand to China for Sanmen Bay in Zhejiang but bungled it completely and China actually got away with refusing them. From what I've read the Italian government basically decided they should a have a territory in China like Hong Kong and Tsingtao. It was as much for prestige as economic reasons. Zhejang was selected because no other power had claims there (although longterm it would probably cause friction with Japan, especially if they had gone with a southern site like Sansha) and it was a center of silk production which I guess was supposed to produce some kind of synergy with Italian industry somehow. They surveyed the coast and despite there being no strategic or economic importance, and despite there being better ports elsewhere, and despite it requiring massive infrastructure development to make a useful port they selected Sanmen Bay. In a striking gesture of gunboat diplomacy the Italian agent in Beijing dispatched a ship there and sent an ultimatum to Beijing. He may have exceeded his instructions but either way he essentially overplayed the Italian hand and Beijing refused the demand, calling the Italian bluff. Because Italy had no will and little ability to back the demand with force and with the British warning the Italians against aggressive action lest it destabilize the situation in China and damage British commerce they had to backdown.

The gentleman's agreement regarding spheres of influence was worked out after this incident so if somehow the Italians prevailed they could have established Zhejiang as their economic sphere of influence. Though they probably would have done better with Xiangshan or Sansha bay or an exsiting city like Taizhou than with Sanmen.
 
Austria is also not that difficult. Get rid of Franz Joseph in the early 1850s and Maximilian on the throne. He was very interested in the fleet and the establishment of colonies. The Novara expedition in the late 1850s sponsored by him was mostly to reconnoiter possible colony sites on the way to China (which was downplayed afterwards due to the lost war against Italy and FJs lack of interest). With Max on the throne the French will be less enthusiastic to meddle in Italy, Austria will acquire the Nicobars, which she had a claim on, and will grab their allotment of the Suez channel shares (thus preventing the British from getting their hands on a controlling majority), and in time they will get their own concession in China and a few pieces of other real estate, parts of Borneo perhaps or some of the Spanish islands in the pacific. Even OTL Austria-Hungary had the 9th largest merchant marine in 1914, with less neglect they could easily reach anywhere from 4th to 8th place, as those powers were in a close pack trailing the big 3 (UK, US and Germany).
 
Why not? Italy was in China till 1943... Austria - Hungary till 1914, both powers had the ability to hold a city in China.

They did that while working with first rate Great Powers (Germany, France, the US and Britain) or powers that were nearby (Russia and Japan).
 
The Italians actually did make a play for their own territory in, IIRC, 1898-99. After Adowa and the Bava-Beccaris massacre they looked to China for some nice morale boosting, prestige creating, Empire building. They put a demand to China for Sanmen Bay in Zhejiang but bungled it completely and China actually got away with refusing them. From what I've read the Italian government basically decided they should a have a territory in China like Hong Kong and Tsingtao. It was as much for prestige as economic reasons. Zhejang was selected because no other power had claims there (although longterm it would probably cause friction with Japan, especially if they had gone with a southern site like Sansha) and it was a center of silk production which I guess was supposed to produce some kind of synergy with Italian industry somehow. They surveyed the coast and despite there being no strategic or economic importance, and despite there being better ports elsewhere, and despite it requiring massive infrastructure development to make a useful port they selected Sanmen Bay. In a striking gesture of gunboat diplomacy the Italian agent in Beijing dispatched a ship there and sent an ultimatum to Beijing. He may have exceeded his instructions but either way he essentially overplayed the Italian hand and Beijing refused the demand, calling the Italian bluff. Because Italy had no will and little ability to back the demand with force and with the British warning the Italians against aggressive action lest it destabilize the situation in China and damage British commerce they had to backdown.

The gentleman's agreement regarding spheres of influence was worked out after this incident so if somehow the Italians prevailed they could have established Zhejiang as their economic sphere of influence. Though they probably would have done better with Xiangshan or Sansha bay or an exsiting city like Taizhou than with Sanmen.
Isn't Zhejiang is pretty close to Shanghai? Wouldn't that cause some problems if Italy was messing with the British sphere?

I suppose it might depend on whether the incident leading to the Italian concession predates the Boxer Rebellion and the spheres of influence agreement or not. British interests were primarily based on the Yangtze River. So they might be willing to accommodate the presence of a neighboring Italian area of influence. Or maybe not. The United Kingdom and Kingdom of Italy couldn't exactly be considered equals geopolitically back then.
 
Austria is also not that difficult. Get rid of Franz Joseph in the early 1850s and Maximilian on the throne. He was very interested in the fleet and the establishment of colonies. The Novara expedition in the late 1850s sponsored by him was mostly to reconnoiter possible colony sites on the way to China (which was downplayed afterwards due to the lost war against Italy and FJs lack of interest). With Max on the throne the French will be less enthusiastic to meddle in Italy, Austria will acquire the Nicobars, which she had a claim on, and will grab their allotment of the Suez channel shares (thus preventing the British from getting their hands on a controlling majority), and in time they will get their own concession in China and a few pieces of other real estate, parts of Borneo perhaps or some of the Spanish islands in the pacific. Even OTL Austria-Hungary had the 9th largest merchant marine in 1914, with less neglect they could easily reach anywhere from 4th to 8th place, as those powers were in a close pack trailing the big 3 (UK, US and Germany).

Definitely North Borneo. The sultan of Brunei even conferred the Austro-Hungarian Consul the title "Rajah of Ambong and Marudu" in 1875, effectively making him ruler of Northwest Borneo. After the Sultanate of Sulu fell in the late 1870's, the same person took over the lands of Northeastern Borneo, with some help from the British and Germans (seriously, the Sulu area was confusing as fuck in the 1870's, and the A-H man played it like a pro). It was lack of interest in Vienna that canned the whole thing, forcing him to eventually sell all the lands he acquired (about modern-day Sabah) to the British.

Should the Habsburgs go for it, North Borneo would be a valuable stopover on the way to China. Not only is there lots of oil in the Sulu Sea, but it also had one of the largest coal deposits in Southeast Asia (Silimpopon). It should be said though; Silimpopon Coal isn't exactly high-grade, so that could be a damper.

Ergo: A lot happened, Vienna and Budapest had the chance to be colonial powers, but decided not to.
 
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Not only is there lots of oil in the Sulu Sea, but it also had one of the largest coal deposits in Southeast Asia (Silimpopon). It should be said though; Silimpopon Coal isn't exactly high-grade, so that could be a damper.

So supposing that Austria does adopt a policy of 'colonies? yes please!'
Would it be possible to use that coal for their ships?
 
So supposing that Austria does adopt a policy of 'colonies? yes please!'
Would it be possible to use that coal for their ships?

In a way, yes. The thing is, coal isn't exactly the same everywhere; the ores found in Britain and Scotland was of a better grade than those of Borneo. Most of Bornean coal was bituminous, meaning that it gives off less energy when burned than, say, Welsh anthracite coal. However, It should also be noted that Bornean coal was still better than low-energy European lignite, which was what drove Germany's industrial revolution in the 19th century. Thing is, the Germans had so much lignite that they were able to modernize anyways, regardless of it's quality.

Summing up: Bornean coal is not perfect, but it's not a bad fuel choice if you're stuck with it.
 
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@sketchdoodle: that is very interesting about the coal and oil in north borneo - I had no idea the area could prove to be so valuable, though I had read before about the Austro - Hungarian consul's efforts.

Any ideas about Chinese concessions Austria might be able to acquire?
 
The Novara only visited Hongkong and Shanghai, at this time there seemed to be no plans, however vague, for acquiring a concession.
Interestingly, they also cartographed St. Paul and Amsterdam in the southern Indian ocean, with the obvious intention to acquire those islands as a way- and coaling station.
 
Any ideas about Chinese concessions Austria might be able to acquire?

Well, if I were a Great Power that is new to colonialism but still itching to make my own mark in China, where would I land?

...Probably somewhere where I can have my own tiny sphere of influence, far enough from rival competition. Having said that, I would also like my closest neighbors to be my friends and allies, just in case.

If you want A-H to be friendly with Germany, I'd suggest the coasts around the Yellow Sea, or at least north of the Yangtze. Possibly Tianjin or Qinghuangdao (though the Austrians might change the name for convenience), depending on which port looks best.
 
But Austria was a part of the Eight-Nation Alliance, wasn't it? Couldn't they have gotten something out of that?
 
But Austria was a part of the Eight-Nation Alliance, wasn't it? Couldn't they have gotten something out of that?

Surely the could have, had the political will have been there. And in fact, they did get something out of it, their concession was in Tianjin - according to my rusty memory, unlike the other European powers present in China, the local citizens who lived within the Austrian concession were accorded all the rights and privileges of Imperial and Royal citizenship. As a consequence of being treated as equals they had better regard for Austria.
 
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